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elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 03:28 AM Post subject: Limit Losing Theory

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Anyone else notice if you lose 15BB at one table, you are less apt to lose more at that table than to move to another table with a full reload?

Say, I have a couple bad beats that happen within a half hour or so, I'm down 15 BB (started with ~50BB). I feel I lose less (if I'm on a bad streak) if I stay at the current table than to get up and move to another table and replace the full amount again.

Obviously this is only in Limit, and my goal is to not lose money (bonus whoring). I'm clearing the bonus at Interpoker which you only play about 45 raked hands per hour so it takes a good 10 hours of online play before you clear it....But you still can't beat it.

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lonnie

10-15-2004, 03:46 AM

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I disagree completely. I think if you are losing 15 BB at a table, you would probably have a better chance moving tables.

Reasons you might be losing money:

1. Bad cards
2. Other players are better than you

If you are losing money, it is possible then, that the other players at the table are better than you. If you make a table move, you might move to a table where they are worse than you.

If it is truly the cards and you think you are better than a majority of the players at the table, then there is no reason to move. There is also reason to expect you will win your money back.

You can't do anything about bad cards, beats, etc, so that is not a factor.

It sounds like you think that once you are down at a table, that that table owes your money back. Flawed thinking in my opinion.

elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 03:53 AM

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Quote:

Anyone else notice if you lose 15BB at one table, you are less apt to lose more at that table than to move to another table with a full reload?

Thats my theory, thats how it happens to me, I was simply wondering if that happens to anyone else. Whether you agree or not was not the question.

Quote:

Reasons you might be losing money

If it got any more obvious you might as well as told me "I'm not playing the right hands" too.

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lonnie

10-15-2004, 03:56 AM

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You're right I didn't answer the question.

No I have not noticed that trend. Sounds ridiculous to me and founded in superstition.

Can you back this theory up with evidence or even postulate as to why this might be the case?

Fnord

10-15-2004, 05:51 AM

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Congrats at beating the man at his own twisted game. Now why didn't I think of that!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Eric

10-15-2004, 06:49 AM

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I haven't noticed it. If I lose too much at one table I like to move somewhere else. The change of scenery can help prevent me from going on tilt. It can also get me away from a table where the players might be better than I originally thought.

Krapp

10-15-2004, 02:30 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Relatively speaking, yes it does happen... but I would agrue its all "noise" and coming-up with a theory from it is counter productive. "Losing less" at a table you already lost money is statistically not valid. However, if you find your self "tightening-up" b/c you are down money, that could cause you to lose less money b/c you would be playing less hands and take less risks. You could easily figure if your doing something like that by looking at the hand statistics before and after you get to the point of "losing money" and deciding if you should stay or not. You could compare your win%, preflop%, profit% and compare the means, sd, etc. to previous hands...

elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 08:29 PM

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Krapp,

thanks for your post, it was very productive and worth reading. My use of 'theory' is probably a little too loosely based, and i didnt mean for that word to cause confusion.

Regarding fnord, i know you are an ass, so i'll give you slack and not get in an argument with you, as that could last days past the amount of effort I really intended with my post.

lhoney2, since you said:

Quote:

I agree.

very politely and you did answer my question in my other post I will continue to debate why I usually don't change tables.

First, the amount of times I do go on tilt playing limit hold'em is few and far between. I'm not saying I dont go on tilt, but I do usually have control of myself and the hands I'm playing a good 98% of the time.

Currently, I've been playing at Interpoker, those of you who play there know that spotting a good player is like spotting an eye-sore, its too easy. First, good players dont start out with $20 in a $1/$2 limit game (a good 70% of Interpoker players do). Now, you may choose to start that low in that stakes, but correct me if I'm wrong but that is the first thing I look for.

Back to the tables, while I was writing my posts last night I was doing what I said I was doing, i was down 15BB on the table and I stayed there. I wasn't down because I was up against better players (they might have been, but thats not the reason). I lost two nice size pots consecutively on the river, which, although I was being aggresive, losing those sure didn't help my chip size.

I am not going to leave the table because I am down 15BB after losing to some fish who caught runner runner straight to take down my trips. Also, I'm not going to leave the table after losing to a guy betting down to river on his Ace high (which, i knew he had compared to my pocket pair). But when the turn and river hit runner runner to 2 pair the board I was SOL. I wish I had these hands but Interpoker 'mysteriously' lost about 50-75 hands and I am unable to show them to you.

In another post "The circle of Limit Hold'em," I stated generally:

Quote:

1 Day of Bad Beats erasing 2-3 BB/100

Now you agreed, and Fnord agreed (at least I think he did, hard to tell the reason he posts sometimes when he has a bug up his ass).

If you knew you were in one of these down times of playing, and you were down but not down below your profit margin, why change tables? I would think you would want to stay at the current table and not allow the possibility of losing any more than necessary. If for some off-chance you are just going to lose the current buy-in, then you wouldn't want to increase the amount of loss you take while you wait for the bad beats and cold cards to subside, as they always do.

Now, you may read this and assume that i've lost an original buy-in. The truth is, I have yet to bust out of any Limit table of where I sat down with 50x BB. I've gotten down to 20BB before, but not long after that I pulled myself up and I was break even again within an hour's time.

Yesterday, I started the day up 17BB in about 1 hour of playing. I had to go to class, so later that night I played for about 4 hours between 3 different tables. I was down, down, and down. But after each table I didnt put any more money in than the one I had before. I started my first table at 45BB, I started my second table at 38BB, and started my third at 35BB.

I was down on the third table to 25BB, I told myself if I lose another 5BB, I am quitting for the day because that was my break even point for the past two days. I made it back up to 40BB in about an hour of playing, then losing about 5BB rather quickly. I finished the day at 35BB, practically break even for the day if you include my other session earlier in the day.

I didn't want to change tables because I didn't want to lose more than the amount I put in. My goal at Interpoker is to get the $90 bonus without losing my original $90 in the first place. If I dont switch tables, I won't lose that amount. Think of it as a limit to the amount one can lose playing limit. If I make money here then thats a plus.

Now, if I were on another site like party poker, where my goal was to MAKE money, then your arguments would be more relevant here. I dont have the luxury at the moment of playing at Party Poker higher limits games because I do not have the bank roll. I am presently playing incorrectly at Interpoker because I dont have the necessary bankroll as it is to play $1/$2 regularly. I am playing with about $400 and not with the usually required $800 that I would normally play at with these levels.

I have explained my logic as good as I can. I think Krapp was right in that I do play tighter and smarter if I lose more. I wish I had the percentages to show you but I don't think PokerTracker works with Interpoker (even if it did I havent bought it anyway).

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elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 08:35 PM

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Secondary reply, this one is directly for Fnord:

Why would you post this?

Quote:

Congrats at beating the man at his own twisted game. Now why didn't I think of that!

This doesn't solve anything but adding fuel to a fire that doesn't need it. If you aren't going to say anything constructive to my posts then I just assume you not post in them. Thats about as polite as I can say it.

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Krapp

10-15-2004, 08:41 PM

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elipsesjeff: I wouldnt get to wrapped-up about what ppl post. Ppls posts will either be constructive, incorrect, sarcastic, irrelevent, humorous, etc. Not all posts are meant to be constructive.... and its hard to know the constructive posts from the posts that are giving bad advice

The good thing, its all free!

Fnord

10-15-2004, 08:43 PM

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It's a silly post, so I gave a silly answer. The inital post was boardering on hot/cold seat supersticion.

If the game is good, play. If the game is bad, tighten up and leave when your blinds come up. Some of my biggest loses have been at great tables. I'll ram and jam my flush draw/set/TPTK/whatever and come out second best. It happens.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 08:49 PM

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Krapp, I can't agree with you more, thats why I took half-a-day to reply because otherwise I just as well could have posted something that didn't make any sense, or rather less sense

Quote:

Ppls posts will either be constructive, incorrect, sarcastic, irrelevent, humorous, etc. Not all posts are meant to be constructive....

True, I guess I have certain higher expectations than others when regarding some players.

I won't even acknowledge the last post by fnord.

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lonnie

10-15-2004, 08:50 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

lhoney2, since you said:

Quote:
I agree.

very politely and you did answer my question in my other post I will continue to debate why I usually don't change tables.

I was polite in this post also. If you took it as condescending, it wasn't meant to be. I didn't know how else to respond to a post like that. I do sense some hostility, but thats ok.

Quote:

I was down on the third table to 25BB, I told myself if I lose another 5BB, I am quitting for the day because that was my break even point for the past two days.

...

I didn't want to change tables because I didn't want to lose more than the amount I put in. My goal at Interpoker is to get the $90 bonus without losing my original $90 in the first place. If I dont switch tables, I won't lose that amount. Think of it as a limit to the amount one can lose playing limit. If I make money here then thats a plus.

I can relate to this because that is how I started off playing. Then I realized that I was playing more 'not to lose' than 'to win'. If you worry too much about winning or losing in this session or that session I think it can have negative consequences on your game.

In my opinion, which is all it is, you need to evaluate the table you are playing at and figure out if you are in a good game or not. If it is a good game stick around. If not, move. If it's not a good game and you don't want to dip into more money, move and buyin for what you had on the last table.

Honestly, it sounds like you are uncomfortable at this limit. I've played the 1/2 table at Pacific a few times. Won 100 one night. Lost 50 the next night. Losing 50 made me feel so shitty that I decided to drop back to .50/1.00 for awhile. I'm going to stay there until I can play my game at the next level and feel comfortable, regardless of the results.

This is not meant as a flame, and I haven't written any insults in this or any other post , I would appreciate the same.

Fnord said:

Quote:

If the game is good, play. If the game is bad, tighten up and leave when your blinds come up. Some of my biggest loses have been at great tables. I'll ram and jam my flush draw/set/TPTK/whatever and come out second best. It happens.

Didn't see this until now - good advice. Exactly what I do when I feel I'm being outplayed which happens quite often.

elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 09:02 PM

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The only reason I play at Interpoker is for the bonus, and the lowest limit stakes game they offer is $1/$2 Limit. I've wanted to increase my stakes and I think I getting more comfortable playing at this limit the more I play. I only play literally like 1 week a month at interpoker playing in the $1/$2 games until I clear my bonus. Then I go back to Poker Stars' .25/.50 two/three tabling. I find though that going back to Stars isn't as exciting or as interesting as it once was.

Once I get my Pin and take money out I'm gonna head over to Pacific and try out their lower stakes game, probably also .50/1 so I can two table that.

Quote:

If it is a good game stick around. If not, move.

Sadly they dont offer too many games, only about 6 or 7 to choose from.

But I will continue to play at interpoker for their bonuses and eventually I will build a comfort level high enough so I can go back to party and face the fish there. One nice thing about Interpoker, is that they respect raises, and the bad beats are very few and far between if you play your cards right.

Quote:

Losing 50 made me feel so shitty that I decided to drop back to .50/1.00 for awhile.

For some reason I feel more comfortable losing $50 at a limit table than losing the same amount by playing tournaments. I don't let losing $50 get to me though, I just say to myself "it wasn't my money anway."

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lonnie

10-15-2004, 09:10 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Then I go back to Poker Stars' .25/.50 two/three tabling. I find though that going back to Stars isn't as exciting or as interesting as it once was.

This is probably a good thing right? I would think excitement would be detrimental to your game. Have you noticed you are winning more on these tables now? As I've gone up in limits, the less I care about the money the better I play. I am more inclined to PFR, check raise, and play aggressive in general. I am also not emotionally involved so I can easily fold my hand when I think I'm beat.

Quote:

I'm gonna head over to Pacific and try out their lower stakes game, probably also .50/1 so I can two table that.

I've done very well at Pacific - but you cannot multi-table there. There software sucks but the players are so bad it is still worth it. I generally play a table at Pacific, then one or two at some other site so I don't get bored and try to play marginal hands.

I am also going to play Interpoker. I deposited a few days ago but it takes 9 days for Firepay deposits to clear. Netteller clears instantly. I'll let you know how I fare. The bonus whoring opportunity there is just too good to pass up.

elipsesjeff

10-15-2004, 09:21 PM

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Quote:

I've done very well at Pacific - but you cannot multi-table there.

Damn, I forgot about that. Its going to take forever for me to get that poker chip set at [XIANTI will remove so I'm not going to say it].

Quote:

This is probably a good thing right?

Thats true, I also want to have a little fun though while I play. I thought about moving into higher limits at Stars but I never hear any mention at all on these boards about higher stakes Limit at Stars. So, I just changed to Interpoker.

And if you think going from .50/1 to 1/2 is uncomfortable, try going from .25/.50 to 1/2. Quite a culture shock, but its still the same game fortunately.

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