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LHE: First 450 hands

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Fnord

05-16-2004, 09:16 AM Post subject: LHE: First 450 hands

#1 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

First 450 hands with poker tracker, interesting results...

Big winners:
KK +$57 (3 for 3)
88 +$38.50 (a single set)
A6s +$34.00 (played 3 out of 5 times pre-flop)
A7s +$33.00
T9s +$31.50
Q9s +$26.00 (BB special)
TT +$12.00 (1 for 4; was up big with quads, then had a busted set and a river beat)

Unlikely losers:
AKs -$26.00 (0 for 2; rivered, folded a flop miss that would have hit on the turn)
AQs -$26.00 (0 for 2; good fold, took too far)
AA -$18.63 (2 for 4; horribly outflopped twice, QQ flopped quads, scrub 2 pair flopped and didn't control the damage well enough)
JJ -$13.50 (1 for 3; took too far twice)

Interesting:
76s -$22.00 (2 out of 3 times played was in the blinds)

Overall my suited Ace hands are ahead or down a small bet or two, except the 2 big ones.

Interesting to watch the EV drift towards about what you would expect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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Toasty

05-17-2004, 07:21 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,522

heh, some strange results thus far, but its only a small sample of data. I might share some of my results later

What i do find interesting is my biggest loseing hand is a Fullhouse, I'm down more than any other hand . . .

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

Fnord

05-17-2004, 08:28 AM

#3 (permalink)

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708 hands... Funny what happens with small sample sizes.

AA is now -$39.1, since I posted 1 for 3. Fell heads up to a 2 outer (AT caught a second ten on the turn) and a backdoor flush.
AKo is moving into the winners column
AQs is now -$46.0
AQo is -$35.0

J7o is 2 for 2 +$31.50

Positionally, I'm making most of my money out of my Big Blind. Losing the most from my Small Blind (2 big AA losers from there.)

Odd, you'd think with an average player having a 2+ BB EV with pocket Aces, they'd be keeping the rest of my game profitable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Toasty

05-17-2004, 10:16 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,522

on the bright side those big hands should turn into winners and as long as the current winning hands don't turn to lsoeing hands, you will have some nice looking stats

Not sure if this is right but if you can break even from the blinds than you have done good. I need to look at more stats on my postitional play, I think its the norm atm. Button / CO are where i make 70% of the profits. I lose it on SB / BB and the others are marginally + or -

What I thought was interesting was that If a lot of players (Good Players) removed AA-JJ(AKs) from there stats they would be loseing players. Its made me tempted to just sit and wait for just these hands and see how it goes.

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

Fnord

05-25-2004, 12:45 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Toasty

What I thought was interesting was that If a lot of players (Good Players) removed AA-JJ(AKs) from there stats they would be loseing players. Its made me tempted to just sit and wait for just these hands and see how it goes.

You still would be leaving too much value on the table. It's not that other hands are -EV, it's just that they're more situational. In a limit game you could never lay any of those hands down and probably make money with them. A great player will do a better job driving value and minimizing losses.

I ought to post an update, things are getting more in sync with what you would expect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

05-26-2004, 12:48 PM

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Update.

2,689 hands of 2/4
37 hands of 1/2
85 hands of .5/1

3.29BB/100 in 2/4
5.06BB/100 overall

For 2/4...
18.63% VP$IP
41.33% VP$IP SB (too high I think?)
31.68% went to SD
55.8% won at SD
7.88% PF raise
1.1 Aggression factor (including pre-flop)

Positions:
SB is my worst position at -$231 (+$72.50 if you don't count the blind)
BB is still above water at $11.13 (+$676.13 if you don't count the blind)
Best is the button at +$318.62

Hands:
AKo 66% win +$164
KJo 32% win +$151.00
AA 68.75% win +$117.12
A7s 40% win +$63.50
QTo 18.75% win +$58.00
KTs 28.5% win +$56.5
KK 63.64% win +$55.50
A6s 33% win +$49.25
KQo 31% win +$43.33
A8s 33% win +$42.00
A3s 30.77% win +$42.00
...
TT 47.6% win +$22.50
99 33% win +$16.00
88 40% win +$16.00
AQo 39% win +$2.50
QQ 35.71% win -$16
AJo 23.50% win -$22
...
JJ 26.6% win -$29.25
76s 12.5% win -$32
J8s 9% win -$33
AJs 27.27% win -$43.75
Q9o 0% win -$45.00
AQs 25% win -$63.50

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Toasty

05-26-2004, 01:21 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,522

A few big surprises in there, I take it with certain hands you have monster pot wins and losses ?

The KJos surprised me as a big winner and the AQs as a big loser...

Also, on the point of the AA to JJ, I wasn't suggesting the other hands were loseing hands my point was that the average winning player would be better off removing them from the play list.

Its all theory of course, and I doubt no one would actually do it, the case in question they had other winning hands but more other loseing hands and removing AA-JJ made them a loseing player.

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

Fnord

05-26-2004, 01:31 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Toasty

A few big surprises in there, I take it with certain hands you have monster pot wins and losses ?

The KJos surprised me as a big winner and the AQs as a big loser...

Yup, busting those Aces with it helped a lot, although it already had some solid wins including out-kicking another hand twice. I think the key with hands like KJo is knowing pre-flop if it's probably good or not. 14 of 25 times I've folded it pre-flop.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toasty

Also, on the point of the AA to JJ, I wasn't suggesting the other hands were loseing hands my point was that the average winning player would be better off removing them from the play list.

Its all theory of course, and I doubt no one would actually do it, the case in question they had other winning hands but more other loseing hands and removing AA-JJ made them a loseing player

AA-JJ + AK are your core money hands. I think it's skilled play of the other hands that makes the difference between break-even and a profit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

TylerK

07-05-2005, 06:29 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Wicked bump. How far you've come!!

TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol

pokerfanatic

07-05-2005, 08:26 PM

#10 (permalink)

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damn this is OLD!!!

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

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