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pokernewb
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09-21-2005, 05:31 PM
Post subject: Lee Jones's book - betting when you flop a flush draw.
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 137
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I'm reading "winning low limit hold'em" at the moment but I'm not sure about this part:
There are eleven bets in the pot after the flop and you have the nut flush draw. Here is a quote from the book.
"You would like to get as many people into the pot as you can. You are slightly less than a 2:1 underdog to make your flush, so you are making money if you can get at least three other people in the pot with you. You would like to bet..."
Now, shouldn't you be comparing the bet odds to the odds of making the flush on the turn instead of the river, which would be 4:1 for making the flush and 3:1 bet odds? Or is he assuming that at least two of the callers will call a bet on the turn as well giving you correct odds?
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Les_Worm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2004
Location: MI
Posts: 1,697
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I believe you are referring to pg. 93 of Lee Jones WLLH.
There are 15 bets in the pot in this example. All you really need to know is if you should contiune past the flop or not. You know you have 9 clean outs and you have seen 47 cards. 38 of them don't help you and 9 do so your odds to make your hand on the next card is 38:9 or 4.2:1. Since you have 15 bets in the pot you will obviously be calling any bet since the pot is giving you odds way over 4.2:1. The goal here is to get as many people in the pot with you as possible. Since your pot odds are laying you way more then your odds to make your hand betting here and getting money in the pot is +EV.
EDIT: I may have slightly misunderstood your question. The 1.9:1 dog to make your flush is by the river (but it could be on the turn). Since you are a 1.9:1 dog to make your flush by the river you would like to bet and have 3 people come with you. That way for everybet you put in there are 3 more giving you proper odds to bet. Technically you only need to be getting 2:1 to bet because you would be making money however there will be times when you will make your flush and lose to a full house so you need greater than exact odds to make that bet.
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The artist formerly known as Knish
Only mediocre players are always at their best.
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pokernewb
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 137
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Thanks Les. What I'm trying to say is that if I am 2:1 dog to make the flush by the "river" then don't I need to get at least 2 callers on both the flop AND the turn so I am getting 2:1 the whole way to the river?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokernewb
Thanks Les. What I'm trying to say is that if I am 2:1 dog to make the flush by the "river" then don't I need to get at least 2 callers on both the flop AND the turn so I am getting 2:1 the whole way to the river?
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2 callers on the flop is fine. Now say on the turn one bets and one folds. You have the pot odds to JUST call.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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avoid betting your draws without callers, particularly on the turn.
When you have something like Q J on a 25 7 flop, you're betting for equity, not just your "draw".
OESD or flush draws need callers
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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If I bet and dont have a call, I win right?
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokernewb
Thanks Les. What I'm trying to say is that if I am 2:1 dog to make the flush by the "river" then don't I need to get at least 2 callers on both the flop AND the turn so I am getting 2:1 the whole way to the river?
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On the flop, you are about 35% to win, so if you can get at least two callers, you usually make money when bets go into the pot.
If you don't hit on the turn, you are only about 4:1 to win, so you would no longer want to get bets in, but you will almost always have the pot odds to call. Notice, however, that you are much less likely to have the odds to call when the flop gets checked through. For this reason, I favor betting into a large field when no one has opened and there was no pre-flop raise.
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Poker is freedom
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
If you don't hit on the turn, you are only about 4:1 to win, so you would no longer want to get bets in.
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Isnt this augumented by the fact that sometimes they fold and you win the pot without showdown?
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ihategnomes
Isnt this augumented by the fact that sometimes they fold and you win the pot without showdown?
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Sure. There are lots of angles here, but I was trying to explain why you might want to jam on the flop but slow down on the turn.
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Poker is freedom
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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I dig, also HEFAP states that you should check-call on the turn when you have outs and bet when you have minimal outs or s marginally made hand, such as TP and overpair holdings. at least something to that nature.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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pokernewb
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 137
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
On the flop, you are about 35% to win, so if you can get at least two callers, you usually make money when bets go into the pot.
If you don't hit on the turn, you are only about 4:1 to win, so you would no longer want to get bets in, but you will almost always have the pot odds to call. Notice, however, that you are much less likely to have the odds to call when the flop gets checked through. For this reason, I favor betting into a large field when no one has opened and there was no pre-flop raise.
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That makes it a bit clearer, I think I almost understand it now  .
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