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DrivingDog

03-13-2009, 10:06 AM Post subject: leak priorities

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

After getting flamed by one of the Doyles on 2+2 for having a slightly smaller than standard SB 3 betting vs. btn raise range, I started thinking about what it meant to have a leak and how to quantify them and work out which are the most important ones and which aren't even worth bothering over (at least not until the bigger leaks are solved).

The math on this is fairly simple. For any given situation, if you have a leak, a different play will be more EV than what you normally do. This can be expressed in the formula:

EVpl = f * (EVs - EVi)

where f is the frequency of the situation, EVpl is the EV of plugging the leak, EVs is the EV of the superior play and EVi is that of the inferior play.

I think most people understand pretty well the EVs-EVi part of the formula, but maybe some don't understand the f part so well, or at least don't give it enough heed.

I'll post some examples later.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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DrivingDog

03-13-2009, 05:08 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

As promised, some examples:

1) You fold the bottomest part of an optimal 3betting preflop range in the SB vs. a button steal in 6max. Not that we can ever know this for sure, but let's say that all other things being equal, an optimal 3betting range is something like 33+, A8+, KT+, QT+, JT, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s. Out of this you fold QT and T9s. Huge leak?

Well consider how this fits in with the formula

frequency is how often this situation arises.
1/6 hands - you're in the SB
1/4 times (approx.) - it folds around to button
1/2 times (approx.) - he open raises
.012 - probability you are dealt QT or J9s

multiply these all together and this situation will arise once every 4000 hands (f= 0.00025)

Now consider what you gain v. lose by 3betting v. folding

Folding is clear: you lose -0.25 BB (assuming 1/2 blind structure).
3 betting is less clear, but given that it's the very bottom of your range, you can't expect a huge profit. For the sake of argument, let's say your net profit by 3betting will be -0.2 BB/hand on average (which is probably generous), so you make 0.05 BB more by 3betting than by folding these hands.

using the formula given above, EVplugleak = 0.00025 * (0.05) = 0.0000125 BB/hand or 0.00125 BB/100 hands.

That means if you play 100k hands where this is your only leak, you'll be 12.5 BB poorer than if you did not have this leak.

If your WR without the leak were 0.50 BB/100, with the leak it will be 0.49975 BB/100

2) You fold AA in every position to an UTG raise. (i'm not recommending this, btw)

Freq (AA in UTG+1, CO, Btn, SB, BB) = ~ .025.
Freq (UTG raises) = ~ 0.15

So Freq = .025 * .15 = 0.00375 (or about once every 267 hands)

As you've invested nothing, the EV of folding is 0. The EV of winning is clearly going to be much higher, say 5 BB/100 or 0.05 BB/hand

So EVplugleak = 0.00375 * 0.05 = 0.000188BB/hand or 0.0188BB/100 hands.

That means over 100k hands, you will be 188 BB poorer with this leak.

If your WR without the leak were 0.50 BB/100, with the leak it will be 0.4812 BB/100 hands.

3) You make fishy calls on the flop without enough equity. On average it costs you - 0.25 BB every time you do this.

How often will this arise?

If your VPIP is (say) 30% you will be seeing a flop .3 of the time.
You will probably have the opportunity to make a fishy call at least 1/10 times

So freq (fishy flop call) = .3 *.1 =.03
The cost of the fishy flop call is -.25 BB

EVplugleak = .03 * .25 = .0075 BB.
That is .75 BB/100 which over 100k hands will cost you 750 BB.

If your WR without the leak were 0.50 BB/100, with the leak it will be -0.25 BB/100 hands.

4) You sit at a table with a fishy on your right. He's losing 5 BB/100, and you are getting 2 BB/100 (0.02BB/hand) of it. Fishy gets up and is replaced by a decent TAG who is a breakeven player after rake. With position you manage to earn .25BB/100 from him (0.0025BB/hand).

Freq = every hand you play =1
EVplugleak = 1 * 0.0175 BB = 0.0175BB/hand or 1.75BB/100. Over 100k hands, hanging around after the fish leaves is costing you 1750 BB.

If your WR without the leak were 0.50 BB/100, with the leak it will be -1.25 BB/100 hands.

So which leaks are the ones you should be concerned about?

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Chopper

03-13-2009, 05:50 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

TABLE SELECTION!!!!!!

oh, and making chopper.....errrrr......fishy calls. even chopper dont fold dem bullets.

seriously, dog, i like the examples. and, i love how much "sticking around" appears to be costing us.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

asdpikas

03-13-2009, 05:56 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

After a quick glance:

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

If your VPIP is (say) 30% you will be seeing a flop .3 of the time.

Wrong. Who says vpip = %of flops seen????

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

4) You sit at a table with a fishy on your right. He's losing 5 BB/100, and you are getting 2 BB/100 (0.02BB/hand) of it. Fishy gets up and is replaced by a decent TAG who is a breakeven player after rake. With position you manage to earn .25BB/100 from him (0.0025BB/hand).

Freq = every hand you play =1
EVplugleak = 1 * 0.0175 BB = 0.0175BB/hand or 1.75BB/100. Over 100k hands, hanging around after the fish leaves is costing you 1750 BB.

Wrong. If fishy disconnects. Should you just stop playing for hours until he comes back or get those .25/100 in the meantime and once he is back you play with him?
It is not costing you unless he's sitting somewhere else and you dont go play with him. THAT is costing you.
Obviously, you should table select, but if a fish leaves, and you are still profiting, you should stay there until you find better profit. Only when you have a negative expectation or you can get higher expectation elsewhere, should you leave.

BIGGEST LEAK: Sleep
We could be making money, but we're just laying there!

DrivingDog

03-13-2009, 06:37 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

3) Quibbles are for dribbles. Adjust it up to 40% if you want. Just makes it a bigger cost.

4) If you're happy to play at a table where your WR is 1.75 BB/100 less than it could be if you played at a better table, then by all means do it. I won't try to stop you.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Chopper

03-13-2009, 06:51 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

BIGGEST LEAK: Sleep
We could be making money, but we're just laying there!

says the creator of the bot.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Lance

03-13-2009, 07:55 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 210

pretty nice post Dog.....
i needed to read smth like this.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe" (Albert Einstein)

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