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Leading at an OESD with two of the same suit on the board.
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bigspenda73
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07-28-2006, 03:26 AM
Post subject: Leading at an OESD with two of the same suit on the board.
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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What does everyone think the correct play is here
Hero 8h9h
Flop 6d7dqc
Hero?
Do you lead at this board, in the micro games I have been playing no one is leading at their flush draws when there are 3+ppl in the pots. I make this straight above and lose to the nut flush who just smooth called the entire way. I led at the flop and turn and built a large pot with 4 callers the whole way. What does everyone think of semibluffing these hands when a flush draw is present? I know it's not even a semibluff if i have the nut straight draw and more than 3 ppl in the pot. I should make this straight 3/10 times, however, what is the percentage my opponents have a made flush? I'm trying to figure out the equity between raising and check calling here. Can anyone figure this equity out? I guess the question is EV=(.3)(pot)-(odds of flush completed)(bet or raise)
If any of you guys could help with this equation I'd appreciate it.
Dunno if that equation makes any sense but thanks for any help
'spenda
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Not sure how to accurately calculate the odds of someone hitting a flush but here is what I would be thinking as I played the hand.
I have 8 outs but all are vulnerable to a redraw on the river and the 5d and Td may also complete a flush. I would discount my outs to 6.5 giving ~26% equity on the flop. So against 3 likely callers I only have a very small equity edge, therfore I would most likely check / call as I cannot be 100% sure that all 3 will call. With 4 likely callers I would bet.
Also if there is a pf raiser to my left I would check hoping to trap all 4 opps for 2 bets.
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arkitekton
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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It's not at all automatic to bet an OESD regardless of whether a 2 flush is on the board but, as sinky so eloquently pointed out, it doesn't help your cause if there is such.
What will kill your odds more than anything else is if you lead out and get raised by someone close behind you who has something worth protecting with a raise such as top pair good kicker, or a weak two pair. Nothing like getting 50-50 odds here on flop and turn money when you bet, the player behind you raises, and everyone else folds.
That said, I tend not to bet straight draws with two-flushes on board against three or four opponents. With four you need everything to go very right for betting to be slightly plus EV, and when does that ever happne? vs. three, the money's not right. Against one or two, the chances of picking up the pot on the flop may warrant a bet. Depends on the opponents, and on the texture of the board. Without a read, in non-micro limit games, my experience is that I ruin my odds more often than I fold two players by betting out first of three, though if it goes check, check, bet, a semi-bluff raise can work against a given opponent, though another drawback to the flush draw on the board is you can't distinguish between someone calling you down with a flush draw, or something such as top pair or better that they'll likely call a river bet with. You're out of position, and you'll have to bet the turn and river both if the bettor keeps calling. Against one opponent, it's often a good shot to bet, but still very read dependent, and the problems with semi-bluffing (either betting out or check-raising) still apply. The nature of the game and your opponents vastly outweighs anyting else. You'll likely never have enough information to adequately fill in the variable of your equation.
How's that for not answering your question?
(btw, the chances that someone is dealt 2 diamonds when there are two diamonds on the flop, is 11/50 * 10/49=4.9~ percent. As you follow through on your equation, your next step is probably to try using Sklansky's starting hands recommendations, estimate what of those your opponents tend to play, and from there calculate the percentage of a player's starting hands that includes those hands with two diamonds. If in your game a typical opponent will limp with one-third of those two diamond hands, then the chance any of your four opponents has two diamonds is something very close to 0.049 *0.33. )
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Thanks for the response, I've been plugging the numbers and you're right, there is little need to lead out at a OESD without a large field, the chances of an iso raise is quite large even in a loose passive game. Im getting closer to figuring out how many players I need to lead at this draw with the flush possibilty and your .049*.33 did help.
Working hard on this to determine maxed out potential. If I come across any enlightenment I'll share it. At the very least I think it's worth the study.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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I dont think leading this flop is a good idea when the number of opponents left to act almost equals the number of outs you have to the nuts.
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