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Laying down a set on the river getting 16:1

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Fnord

04-28-2005, 06:13 AM Post subject: Laying down a set on the river getting 16:1

#1 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

BB is sTAggy
CO is loose/passive, but knows how to fold

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is SB with 4

, 4

.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Fnord completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 8

, 3

, 4

(7 players)
Fnord bets, BB raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Fnord 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 2

(3 players)
Fnord bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (11 BB) 7

(3 players)
Fnord bets, BB raises, CO calls, Fnord folds.

Final Pot: 16 BB

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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Trikflow77

04-28-2005, 06:16 AM

#2 (permalink)

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I dont like it, I think you are good here enough, why even bet the river here if you KNOW he was on a flush draw.????

Fnord

04-28-2005, 06:18 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by trikflow77

Why even bet the river here if you KNOW he was on a flush draw.????

I wasn't sure enough until I saw the river action and I really hate to miss a bet. We're not talking about TPTK or something like that, I get called by worse hands too often to check.

This is what drives me nuts about limit. You can be 90% sure you're beat and still really have to call.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

honsheung

04-28-2005, 07:19 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 153

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by trikflow77

Why even bet the river here if you KNOW he was on a flush draw.????

I see. But i won't bet in river, knowing the danger of made flush is so high.
check call is my play

Fnord

04-28-2005, 07:29 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by honsheung

I see. But i won't bet in river, knowing the danger of made flush is so high.
check call is my play

Check/calling a set is really bad unless you're pretty sure you'll draw a bluff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

honsheung

04-28-2005, 07:41 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Posts: 153

But the fact is can have a showdown and avoid a very likely raise from the flush .

Fnord

04-28-2005, 07:48 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by honsheung

But the fact is can have a showdown and avoid a very likely raise from the flush .

Consider how often you have the best hand and it just gets checked behind if you fail to bet. Also, consider that a fair % of the time a non-nut flush will just call here (perhaps going for the over-call.) It's a trival laydown vs a raise + 3-bet Finally, how much more likely is a check to induce a bluff vs a bet? If CO folds I think TAgg bluff raises here often enough for a very profitable call.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

04-28-2005, 08:09 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Bet duh riva

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is MP2 with Q

, A

. Fnord posts a blind of $3.
2 folds, MP1 raises, Fnord (poster) 3-bets, 4 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) Q

, A

, 6

(3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Fnord raises, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 2

(3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Fnord bets, BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (10.66 BB) 8

(3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Fnord bets, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 12.66 BB

Results in white below:
MP1 has Jh Qc (one pair, queens).
Fnord has Qh Ad (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: Fnord wins 12.66 BB.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is CO with A

, Q

.
4 folds, Fnord raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Fnord calls.

Flop: (9 SB) T

, 4

, Q

(4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Fnord raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Fnord bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (9.50 BB) 8

(3 players)
SB checks, Fnord bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results in white below:
SB has Ks Ah (one pair, tens).
MP3 doesn't show.
Fnord has Ac Qh (two pair, queens and tens).
Outcome: Fnord wins 11.50 BB.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is Button with K

, A

. MP2 posts a blind of $3.
3 folds, MP2 (poster) raises, 2 folds, Fnord 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7

, 2

, J

(2 players)
MP2 bets, Fnord raises, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) A

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Fnord bets, MP2 calls.

River: (7.66 BB) T

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Fnord bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

Results in white below:
MP2 has 9h Tc (one pair, tens).
Fnord has Kd Ad (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Fnord wins 9.66 BB.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is BB with 7

, 7

.
2 folds, CO calls, Button raises, 1 fold, Fnord calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) T

, 7

, 5

(3 players)
Fnord bets, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 6

(2 players)
Fnord bets, Button calls.

River: (6.16 BB) 8

(2 players)
Fnord bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 8.16 BB

Results in white below:
Fnord has 7c 7s (three of a kind, sevens).
Button has Ac Jc (high card, ace).
Outcome: Fnord wins 8.16 BB.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

04-28-2005, 08:26 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Meh...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is BB with 9

, 8

.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Fnord checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4

, 8

, 7

(5 players)
SB bets, Fnord raises, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9

(3 players)
SB bets, Fnord raises, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 2

(3 players)
SB checks, Fnord checks, UTG+1 bets, SB folds, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Ts Qd (high card, queen).
Fnord has 9s 8c (two pair, nines and eights).
Outcome: Fnord wins 13.50 BB.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Demiparadigm

04-28-2005, 09:11 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,602

I play all there the same, except I won't raise the flop with just overcards. You need to be in a passive game for this to be an effective play.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Fnord

04-28-2005, 09:41 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I play all there the same, except I won't raise the flop with just overcards. You need to be in a passive game for this to be an effective play.

I usually don't but heads-up vs a highy suspect raise I thought my AK was good. Sometimes you just gotta play back at someone and show that you just won't roll over with an unimproved AK/AQ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

ArcticKnight

04-29-2005, 02:26 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Location: golf course

Posts: 416

I like the fact that Fbord presnets interesting plays to debate.

I think the two river decsion points were correct, for what it is worth.

1.UTG he bet the river because he had probably had the best hand, and did not want to give up a BB or 2.
2. After the raise he folded because he was clearly beat.

both plays are +EV to me -- they just look weak combined, and maybe that's what troubles some folks (but not Fnord).

A month ago I would have checked the river out of fear, but called one bet. Or, I would have bet the river AND called the raise.

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

Trikflow77

04-29-2005, 03:02 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Fnord, with the villian in this hand being in the BB, he could easily have flopped 2 pair here, hence I call this river bet every time. I believe you are good more than 1 in 15 times here.

Room

05-01-2005, 02:33 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Posts: 197

Can we c/r the flop on a late position bet? or c/r the turn?

Fnord

05-03-2005, 05:47 PM

#15 (permalink)

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From memory...
BB had 87 for 2 pair.
CO had Kxs for the 2nd nut flush

Short-term is was a good laydown.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Element187

05-03-2005, 05:54 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by honsheung

I see. But i won't bet in river, knowing the danger of made flush is so high.
check call is my play

Check/calling a set is really bad unless you're pretty sure you'll draw a bluff.

a player that pays attention will see that will you lay down to a possible flush, and try to run a flush bluff on you (IE: call you to the river with possible flush draw, wait for it to hit, then pop back at you.

"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls

Fnord

05-03-2005, 05:57 PM

#17 (permalink)

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So be it. I make laydowns and sometimes I'm wrong. I also make some pretty close calls. If no one ever bluffed me off a hand then I'm calling too much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Element187

05-03-2005, 06:04 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Location: Orlando, FL

Posts: 802

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

So be it. I make laydowns and sometimes I'm wrong. I also make some pretty close calls. If no one ever bluffed me off a hand then I'm calling too much.

good point.. i guess this is the sheriff in me coming out in this play.

"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls

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