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late to act with QQ at loose passive table

  
 
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fooo
Old 02-03-2006, 08:15 PM     Post subject: late to act with QQ at loose passive table #1 (permalink)  

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I post SB and am dealt Qd Qc. Five players limp to me. I complete and play for set value knowing I can't get anyone out with a raise at this point, and the BB checks, so seven see the flop.

Flop: Kc Js 7c. Checked to the button, who bets. I fold. Anyone play this differently?
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chardrian
Old 02-03-2006, 08:19 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Yes. I raise preflop. I also probably lead out on the flop and then go from there.
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fooo
Old 02-03-2006, 08:37 PM #3 (permalink)  

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It just occurred to me that I remembered this a little incorrectly (home game). On the flop there was a bet from CO and a raise from the button before I folded.
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littleogre
Old 02-03-2006, 09:00 PM #4 (permalink)  

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 I would have 2 bet preflop. The fact that noboby will fold is besides the point. One the flop i would have bet then unless you feel you have odds to chase a set or back door i would fold to a 2 bet. Honestly a check would be ok aswell imo.
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thenonsequitur
Old 02-03-2006, 09:48 PM     Post subject: Re: late to act with QQ at loose passive table #5 (permalink)  
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Raise pre-flop, not to knock anyone out, but for pure value. Having just completed preflop instead of raising, I think checking is the right approach to the flop. Then facing a bet and a raise before you, you can give some credit for the king and fold.
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fooo
Old 02-04-2006, 12:05 AM #6 (permalink)  

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Interesting.... so it appears unanimous that a 2-bet pre-flop is a better play there. Then just hope for a flop with no overcards? I'm surprised to see advice to lead out the flop with the king on board playing against 12 cards though. A table that loose can't lay down top pair, and what are the odds that none of those 12 cards are a king?
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-04-2006, 04:18 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fooo
what are the odds that none of those 12 cards are a king?
[(47-3)! /(47-3-12)!]/[47! /(47-12)!] = 0.4036

40% of the time, no one has a king.

Raise preflop.

I raise TT+, ATs+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QJs here.

The point is not that you will win a majority of the time, just that you will win more than (100/x)% of the time, where x is your number of opponents + you.

So with 6 opponents and you in the pot, raise if it is likely you will win at showdown more than 100/7 = 14% of the time.
The raise is purely for value.
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Nehmer
Old 02-04-2006, 05:52 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
Originally Posted by fooo
what are the odds that none of those 12 cards are a king?
[(47-3)! /(47-3-12)!]/[47! /(47-12)!] = 0.4036

40% of the time, no one has a king.
This isn't really accurate at all since people are more likely to play a hand that includes a king than a hand that has a 2,3,4,5,etc... If for some reason I wasn't allowed to raise preflop, I would also check the flop to see what action happens after me. Since I always am allowed to raise QQ preflop though, I lead the flop since it would be a bigger pot and I can take a few more risks to try and win it.
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ihategnomes
Old 02-04-2006, 08:59 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Postflop can be argued, just calling preflop is not good.
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Pelion
Old 02-04-2006, 07:46 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by "Nehmer
This isn't really accurate at all since people are more likely to play a hand that includes a king

They cant play it any more often than they are delt it.
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Nehmer
Old 02-05-2006, 12:13 AM #11 (permalink)  
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[quote=Pelion]
Quote:
Originally Posted by "Nehmer
This isn't really accurate at all since people are more likely to play a hand that includes a king


They cant play it any more often than they are delt it.
Lets put it this way...If somebody is dealt 2 random cards, they get AA 1/220 times. If somebody caps preflop, are the odds that they have AA still 1/220?? They still can't get AA more often than they are dealt it....
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Pelion
Old 02-05-2006, 01:25 AM #12 (permalink)  
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[quote="Nehmer"]
Quote:

Lets put it this way...If somebody is dealt 2 random cards, they get AA 1/220 times. If somebody caps preflop, are the odds that they have AA still 1/220?? They still can't get AA more often than they are dealt it....
You are taking an example where someone has shown extreme strength and applying it to a situation where nobody has defined their hand.

Preflop you are in the SB and noone has shown strength. Why is it likely someone has a K?

On the flop you are first so act so noone can show strength. Why is it likely anyone has a king?

After you check everyone else checks to the button. Why is it likely they have a K.

The button bets, quite possibly protecting his K, but also quite possibly protecting his J or even protecting/buying outs with his A7. what puts him on a K after only 1 bet?

Raise preflop for value. Not raising QQ because someone might have a K is silly. Not raising because someone might have a K when everyone has shown weakness is insane.

As played you have to fold to a bet and a raise.
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Nehmer
Old 02-05-2006, 02:10 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
You are taking an example where someone has shown extreme strength and applying it to a situation where nobody has defined their hand.

Preflop you are in the SB and noone has shown strength. Why is it likely someone has a K?
Calling in preflop does define a hand somewhat. If you think that somebody who called preflop has equal chance of holding 2-6,3-8,4-7, etc... as them holding K-Q, K-J, K-T, K-9, etc, you are wrong. Yes my previous example of the AA is exaggerated, but it is exactly the same concept. There are a lot of ways to help define your hand and limping in preflop is a good way of somewhat defining a hand. With 6 other players seeing the flop the odds of somebody not having a K are definately not 40% and that method of determining the percent is badly flawed. Even if it was the correct play to bet out on that flop(which I don't think it is), it wouldn't change the fact that the math is flawed.
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Pelion
Old 02-05-2006, 02:55 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Well sure it defines the hand as "playable" which to these guys (where 6 people see a flop) doesnt define it too much more than saying it has 2 cards.
26? maybe not. 26s? Yes please.

Obviously it is slightly more likely, but I dont think its enough to worry about.

Capping preflop defines a hand as at least as strong as AK/QQ+ for the vast majority of players so you can say with some certainty that they may have hit certain flops.

Calling preflop on a table this loose defines the hand as anything as strong as 2 suited cards, 2 connected cards, 2 cards higher than an 8 etc.etc. etc.
Sure its slightly more likely that someone is going to play a king, but IMHO you dont have enough information to let it affect your play preflop.

After the flop we are first to act. Is it any more likely someone has a King (before anyone has acted postflop)? Actually its less likely because we can see one of them on the flop so there are now only 3 to be shared around.

We check

Then it is raised and reraised. This is new information. Its the first time anyone has shown any strength in the hand and it is now time to reevaluate. Not only is it likely that at least one person has a K, but it is pretty likely that someone is beating TPTK.
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Ragnar4
Old 02-05-2006, 11:58 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Seriously,

I think the most important point here is not only was there poor pre-flop play...

The post flop wasn't too hot either...

If you're on the SB, and people have shown strength, raise and re-raise on the Flop to define your hand.

You're in the SB, With QQ, Lead out, even with a King on the board. If the king is there, and the player is even kinda good, he'll raise. I think even the worst fish in the game know that top pair is gold on the flop.

I realize that if you're behind, you are WAAAAY behind. In fact you're a 10.5-1 underdog here if there's a king out against you. But if you're good, you can't let any Aces draw out, and you can't let any straight draws hit either.

The flop is the place to force people to define their hand, because it's cheap. If they've got TPTK, you'll get into a raising war. Then you can release on the Turn if htey keep the pressure up.

Think about it this way. You're initial, gut instinct is to release the cards. But you lead out anyway, and everyone just calls. You assume you're ahead unless someone sloplayed 2pair, TPTK, or Trips. Very unlikely in this situation. Slowplaying 2pair is the only reasonable argument on this board, and even that is dicey with 2hearts out htere.
Assume you lead out, and your opponent raises, you should Re-raise! He's told you he has a King... how good is his kicker? 2 pair is still a possibility, but if he's got bottom 2, you're stillYou've still got a good set of outs, and will catch back up 30ish percent of the time. If he caps, He's telling you he has one of 2 hands, AK (ridiculously unlikely, because he didn't raise pre-flop right?) oooorrr, that he has KJ. Everyother combination of card holdings he has, he calls your 3rd bet (unless he's a maniac, and you shouldn't even consider calling any bet he makes in this situation because you're auto-raising) Remember we've narrowed a total of 6 hands out of 169 on this board (AKs, AK, KJs, KJ, J4s, J4.) That he's going to be going to the river with and being the aggressor. Almost every other holding gives you a decent shot at picking up this pot. (Keep in Mind, King-Poop will call you're 3rd bet here, but you'll have put the fear of god in him that he's either out kicked, or up against 2 pair, so he'll try to get to the river cheaply, How you play this is up to you. If you think he's sophisticated enough to release, pound pound pound, if he's a fish, show down cheaply.)

But you're cagey, and smart, and you check the turn and if he bets, after a capped flop, you fold, confident that this guy has you crushed, and you're dead to a 22-1 shot. (spiking a Q) If he gives up after you 3bet on the flop, you know you're ahead, and it actually cost you less than going to the river to find it out AND you've padded the pot, hopefully pushed out some bad Aces that could out-draw on you, and maybe even some of the Gutshot straight draws. As for the Flush Draw.. pray to god it doesn't hit cuz no-ones folding that with two other guys going at it.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-07-2006, 12:21 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Assume you lead out, and your opponent raises, you should Re-raise! He's told you he has a King... how good is his kicker?
This is ridiculous. I am the resident LAGtard on the board and I am not 3 betting against a raise out of position with a hand that I know is beaten. Any king or better is going to showdown, so the 3 bet is just throwing money away when you should fold and move on to the next hand.
Remember, poker is about winning money, not winning pots. I pick up a lot of the little pots no one wants, but I never try to outplay someone who is telling me he likes his hand.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Ragnar4
Old 02-07-2006, 06:51 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Hey man,

That analysis is almost word for word from John Vorhaus; concerning the play of QQ against a King high flop. Fishman, Negranu, Duke, Ledderer and several others have suggested the same, in writing no less.

Hell I did it 3 times tonight, twice I KNEW I had the best hand with QQ afterwards, and the other time I KNEW my opponent had me seriously beat.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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fooo
Old 02-07-2006, 06:57 PM #18 (permalink)  

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Interesting comments all. OK, definitely should've raised pre-flop. But I'm guessing this is one of those instances where our little home game doesn't exactly play like some others you may have seen. Did I mention that I'd seen AKs and AA cold call my HJ raise earlier in the game (on the same hand, that is)? I'm also guessing no one will guess what I was up against.
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-07-2006, 10:21 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
Assume you lead out, and your opponent raises, you should Re-raise! He's told you he has a King... how good is his kicker?
This is ridiculous. I am the resident LAGtard on the board and I am not 3 betting against a raise out of position with a hand that I know is beaten. Any king or better is going to showdown, so the 3 bet is just throwing money away when you should fold and move on to the next hand.
Remember, poker is about winning money, not winning pots. I pick up a lot of the little pots no one wants, but I never try to outplay someone who is telling me he likes his hand.
I'm not 3betting either, but a check/raise in this situation is a pretty good play. Either that or I'm leading out but folding is the last thing i'm going to do.


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Demiparadigm
Old 02-07-2006, 11:04 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
Assume you lead out, and your opponent raises, you should Re-raise! He's told you he has a King... how good is his kicker?
This is ridiculous. I am the resident LAGtard on the board and I am not 3 betting against a raise out of position with a hand that I know is beaten. Any king or better is going to showdown, so the 3 bet is just throwing money away when you should fold and move on to the next hand.
Remember, poker is about winning money, not winning pots. I pick up a lot of the little pots no one wants, but I never try to outplay someone who is telling me he likes his hand.
I'm not 3betting either, but a check/raise in this situation is a pretty good play. Either that or I'm leading out but folding is the last thing i'm going to do.
This has nothing to do with what I am talking about. If you lead into a passive opponent and he raises, when he will only raise top pair or better, 3 betting is spewage. In fact, calling to peel off a turn card is often wrong depending on the size of the pot.
I am not encouraging check-folding. I just don't like to 3 bet a passive player out of position to try to push them off a hand that they aren't folding. It is a ridiculous idea.
A check raise is also ridiculous against a player who will only bet top pair but will call with a wider range. That way you get to put in the most behind and the win least ahead.

Read Ragnarok's original post. "You should 3 bet if he has a king. How good is his kicker?" That line of thought is ridiculous. Who cares how good his kicker is? He has you beat and he's not folding in a limit game.

When you say "folding is the last thing I'm going to do" I really have no idea what you mean. You can not be seriously saying that you will never fold QQ on a K high flop. So, I am not sure what your point is. If you are saying that you will either lead at this flop or check raise based on the hand history, you completely missed the purpose of my post, which had nothing to do with what the best flop play was. Only that 3 betting a mediocre hand out of position is ridiculous.

Are you saying that given the hand history where he checked and it was bet and raised back to him, you wouldn't fold? That seems completely silly to me also.

I guess all of my babbling comes down to:

Your post makes no sense. What are you talking about, and how does it relate to what I wrote?
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-07-2006, 11:10 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
Hey man,

That analysis is almost word for word from John Vorhaus; concerning the play of QQ against a King high flop. Fishman, Negranu, Duke, Ledderer and several others have suggested the same, in writing no less.
link? It is hard for me to imagine anyone has advocated a 3 bet with QQ on a K high flop, let alone out of position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
Hell I did it 3 times tonight, twice I KNEW I had the best hand with QQ afterwards, and the other time I KNEW my opponent had me seriously beat.
If you KNEW that you had the best hand, it is a completely different situation than when your opponent is raising with a king and you are 3 betting to see "how big is his kicker."

Second, post the hand history for these 3 hands... I would like to see them.
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midas06
Old 02-07-2006, 11:11 PM #22 (permalink)  
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I think that Jeff is playing his hand as he would have played if PF, ie. raising from the sb, while Demi is playing it as the OP played it PF.

This makes a difference. However, either way, I think that Demi is right here.
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-07-2006, 11:14 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midas06
I think that Jeff is playing his hand as he would have played if PF, ie. raising from the sb, while Demi is playing it as the OP played it PF.

This makes a difference. However, either way, I think that Demi is right here.

I am not playing the hand at all. I am simply discussing whether 3 betting with less than top pair and no draw out of position is a fundamentally sound practice.
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-07-2006, 11:34 PM #24 (permalink)  
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 Well, after scrolling down some I found that the original post was mistated. I would probably fold here on the flop too.

Given the info from the original Post, I'm not folding.

And for the record, I am saying how I would play it given the call preflop and not the raise. By raising preflop, the hand plays itself a lot better. But, I'm still not folding to a raise especially HU no matter how passive the opponent is.


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Demiparadigm
Old 02-08-2006, 12:45 AM #25 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Given the info from the original Post, I'm not folding.
I agree. Looking just at the OP, I raise here most of the time.
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Xanadu
Old 02-08-2006, 05:04 PM #26 (permalink)  
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As played, folding on the flop is certainly correct. But as we seem to just be discussing how to play QQ when an overcard flops ...

If the pot was unraised preflop (would never happen with me, but just say I limped in), I bet out with 6 bets in the pot.

If the pot was raised as it should have been, checking and hoping for a CO or button bet so we can check-raise is the only way to protect the hand. Even a bare Ace would be correct to call against our hand. If the person to our left bets, there will be no good way to protect the hand, so it's necessary to just call and then re-evaluate on the turn.
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Mike_Ann
Old 02-08-2006, 05:23 PM #27 (permalink)  

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I would Raise on the preflop. Check on the flop ( since still 7players in)
If Button bet I'll check-raise try to get more info otherthan he might try to steal the pot with position.
1/If someone call 2 bet and Button make it 3 bets then I simply Just muck my QQ.
2/ If no one call my check raise and Button make it 3 bet raise. I'll call 1 more small bet to see turn card if it not Q then I'll fold.
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-09-2006, 01:41 AM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xanadu
If the pot was raised as it should have been, checking and hoping for a CO or button bet so we can check-raise is the only way to protect the hand. Even a bare Ace would be correct to call against our hand.
In this case I think it is best to lead out to try to get overcards to fold, just as we would have lead out if there were no K on the flop even though draws have the correct odds to call. For example, a flush draw always has odds to call, but we bet so that they are at least given worse odds than they are getting for free.
Sometimes in poker we want worse hands to fold (specifically if they are getting correct odds to call) And, unless we have specific information that we can expect a bet from late position which we can then raise, betting is the best way to get these weak draws to fold.
The other advantage to leading is we get a little more information about the texture of our opponents' hands than we would by simply check/calling.
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