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KQo in MP, TPGK on paired turn

  
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 02-02-2008, 04:21 AM     Post subject: KQo in MP, TPGK on paired turn #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
Hermann the Lombard
I'm looking in more detail at my KQo hands now that I realize they are one of my biggest losers (-0.55 BB/hand over the last couple of months).

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, Q.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T, 9, Q (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) T (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero...

UTG is 40/4.6 and doesn't seem to bet the flop very often. He bets it here, and then more disturbingly donks the turn.

CO is an actual TAG (rare at this level), 19/11.1, no relevant notes.

The board is very connected and is now paired. My first thought is to raise again (and fold to a 3-bet), but maybe I should pull in my horns and call, planning to fold to a raise.
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littleogre
Old 02-02-2008, 06:28 AM #2 (permalink)  

Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 Limping utg+1 is bad in all but the loosest of games
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 02-02-2008, 11:19 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
Noted. It's a fold on the ITH chart, a raise on the SSHE "loose" chart, and a flat call on the SSHE "tight" chart, so there's room for healthy debate. How about later in the hand?
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arborman
Old 02-05-2008, 11:05 PM #4 (permalink)  
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arborman
I see 11 outs, some potentially tainted, so more like 7 clean outs and 4 half outs - call it 8 outs to be safe. So that gives me about 5.7:1 to call in a 6BB pot. Not to mention I have top pair second kicker and could very possibly be ahead here anyways.

No way do I fold this turn, but I probably call down. Raising depends a little on the other players - if CO is a real tag he is drawing, because he would have raised stronger holdings. You might want to raise to chase him out, but he would be getting 4:1 to call, which he could do if he is holding a pair and an OESD or FD. Raising would create a real risk of being 3bet by a made hand, and you would have to call it for one more with your outs. Better to slow down and get to showdown cheap if possible.

Villain could be betting his top pair - I would in his position with a scare card and a couple of reasonably tight players behind me on the turn, though facing a raise would be hard from his position as well if he isn't made.
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 02-06-2008, 07:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
though facing a raise would be hard from his position as well if he isn't made.
Hey, if he's a made guy I ain't messin' wit' him. (Sorry, I live on Sopranos home turf.)

I agree with your estimate of about 8 outs, and you're right that there's a chance that I'm ahead so definitely no thought of folding here. Now if I call, CO raises, and UTG calls (or 3-bets) then I'm out of here.

l.o.: my quick reply didn't consider the fact that I'm not open limping here. It still works out about the same (depending on reads, of course).
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sinky
Old 02-07-2008, 03:44 PM #6 (permalink)  
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sinky
To say we have 7 clean outs is very optimistic.

2 Queens for a full house, but split pot against any Q hand ( dead against TT) (2 outs)

2 Tens for a full house, dead against any Tx,KK, AA. Splitting with any Q. (1.5 outs)

4 Jacks for the straight, but drawing dead to QQ,99,T9,QT,Q9 and splitting with any K, and AK would suck out on you (and Js would complete a possible Flush). (2.5 outs)

3 Kings for 2 pair, dead against AA,QQ,99, any Tx, any Jx (and Ks would complete the possible Flush). (0.5 outs)

So I would say about 6.5 outs
We could be ahead, but given that he bet the flop and turn (out of character) and there is also the CO to act behind us, I do not feel very good in this spot. I think raising would be pretty bad here. I would call the turn and hope I improve on the river.
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littleogre
Old 02-07-2008, 04:39 PM #7 (permalink)  

Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 as far as post flop is concerned i see nothing wrong with calling down uninproved. Ofcorse if the action gets to hot ie was are forced to face 2 bets on the turn or river then yes folding might be a mistake. Folding fo 1 bet though would just be wrong baring any significant reads. For example some players at the micros where i hang out only use utg's line when they have a set. When talking about limping utg i actually have sshe which is a great book by the way but most everything i have read on the net advises against limping utg. Ofcourse their is always an exception to the rule
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