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KK vs a River Ace

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Hermann the Lombard

01-14-2008, 02:18 AM Post subject: KK vs a River Ace

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Only the second orbit so villain is virtually unknown, 53/6.7 so far. I've seen a couple of hands, Q2o SB check/call trips on the flop, check/raise on the turn, also QJo HJ coldcall then raise/call J82. I don't respect those plays, but that's a miniscule sample size.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

, K

. MP1 posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2

, J

, 8

(4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO raises, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 9

(4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, CO calls, BB folds.

River: (12.25 BB) A

(2 players)
Hero...

Do I bet here, ostensibly for value, or do I check/call against the possibility that he's hanging around on an Ax...with AJ and A8 more likely than the others. As an unknown I would think several Aces are in his cold-calling range. With his flop raise and turn call I provisionally put him on a pair of Jacks. Here on the river (in my experience at this level) there's a pretty good chance that a random villain would call with a hand that I beat and would be unlikely to raise me as a bluff (or bet as an induced bluff).

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

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arborman

01-14-2008, 04:28 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 300

I bet, and curse the 45% of the time that the ace chaser or crap 2 pair wins his hand. The other 55% I watch half the villains fold and the others call with crap and lose.

The flop action looks like overplayed draws to me, especially with the slowdown on the turn. The ace completes no draws, so I think you have a value bet (knowing that sometimes you will lose).

KoRnholio

01-14-2008, 05:14 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

Value bet it. Hands like JT, QJ, KJ (or worse) show up here a lot.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Ragnar4

01-15-2008, 05:47 AM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

What's wrong with Bet/Fold here? I think this is exactly what this line is made for.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Hermann the Lombard

01-15-2008, 04:49 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

I just wrote "bet," didn't I, rather than giving the rest of the line. I guess that shows I wasn't thinking it through though in fact I agree that bet/fold is probably the best line.

I confess that I wimped out and checked, and villain mucked J

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

DrivingDog

01-16-2008, 02:24 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Location: UK

Posts: 923

I think it's a fairly easy bet/fold given the action.

I find the Villian's side of the hand rather interesting. Given how we've played, he can safely put us on a pretty narrow range of hands:

AA, KK (12 hands) - he has 5 outs
QQ (3 hands) - he has 3 outs
JJ (1 hand) - he has 0 outs
AsJs (2 hands) - he has 3 outs

That's an average of 4.2 outs, getting 11:1 to call the turn bet. Marginally too few pot odds but the implied odds make calling the turn a slightly (+ 0.23 BB) EV play*

However, this only applies if he folds the river UI. If he calls another bet if a T or lower comes, he'll be (-0.48 BB) EV, or about twice more -EV than he would be +EV if he folded the river UI (and it will be worse if he calls if an A or K comes on the river).

Might be something to think about when you're tempted to call down with top pair decent kicker vs. an early position raiser.

*I won't bore you with the calculations, but they include estimates of bets won when improving as well as the bets lost when improving and still losing. E.g., if we have AA/KK and a Q comes on the river, we will probably bet and he will raise and we will call, gaining him 3 BB total (including the BB we put in on the turn). If we have QQ and a Q comes on the river, it will probably be capped, costing him a total of 5 BB including the turn, etc.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Hermann the Lombard

01-16-2008, 05:09 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Might be something to think about when you're tempted to call down with top pair decent kicker vs. an early position raiser.

Interesting. I'm usually in "one street at a time" mode. I read that is normally best except for all-in situations but I suppose the emphasis is on "normally."

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

DrivingDog

01-16-2008, 07:07 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Might be something to think about when you're tempted to call down with top pair decent kicker vs. an early position raiser.

Interesting. I'm usually in "one street at a time" mode. I read that is normally best except for all-in situations but I suppose the emphasis is on "normally."

An UTG player's raising range in FR is usually so narrow (e.g., JJ+, AQ, AJs) that when they jam a raggedy flop like this you are almost always in trouble with top pair decent kicker types of hands. There are some early raisers who will jam AK, TT types of hands on the flop and keep going on the turn and river UI, but those are fairly bad plays after getting raised on such a raggedy flop as this, for the precise reason that typical micro-stakes (i.e., passive) opponents won't fold any hand they'd raise the flop with no matter what, and the early raiser is putting more money in while behind and while their fold equity is pretty close to nil.

In this hand for example, if we jammed a hand like TT we are probably jamming with two outs, and if we jammed a hand like AK we are often doing it with three.

It would be different in an aggressive 6max game where people often jam just about anything on the flop if they think it missed you and/or they can get you to fold. In that case the right play is often to call down with any decent hand, including A high, good kicker, and look for ways to get more money in with your good hands.

But going back to Villian's play of this hand, unless he has solid reasons to think we belong in the super-lag category, it would seem his folding UI on the river with QJ is the right play against typical opposition.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Hermann the Lombard

01-17-2008, 04:51 PM

#9 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 270

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

But going back to Villian's play of this hand, unless he has solid reasons to think we belong in the super-lag category, it would seem his folding UI on the river with QJ is the right play against typical opposition.

You're right...but I would bet you--though I failed to bet HIM--that he would call with this holding. With that and his 53% VP$IP I would expect an oblivious call rather than a crying call. I feared that I was behind. That isn't exactly MUBS, it's more like LDUBS (Large Dog Under...)

Oh, no! Not another learning experience!

Gopoker555

01-20-2008, 07:30 AM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2008

Posts: 6

[quote="Hermann the Lombard"]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

With this information i would valuebet the river. I don't think he will valueraise a worse hand so i think you can fold to a raise. Also not sure if he would valuebet worse hand if you check. I think he puts you either on a strong J, overpair or a set (maybe 2 pair, but giving the early preflop raise, dont know about that). But I think you had to call bet a bet if you check.

nutsinho

01-20-2008, 09:01 AM

#11 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt

Posts: 3,280

id bet around 1.50 and fold to a shove

My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.

DrivingDog

01-20-2008, 01:02 PM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard

You're right...but I would bet you--though I failed to bet HIM--that he would call with this holding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

I think it's a fairly easy bet/fold given the action.

Just because i might fold if i were him doesn't mean i wouldn't bet if I were you. Lots of guys won't fold bottom pair and I'd say the majority would not fold second pair at this point.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

DrivingDog

01-20-2008, 01:45 PM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Anyways don't feel too bad, I think I missed a value-raise on the river here...lol

Villian never folds his blinds no matter what pf.

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

, K

.
Hero raises, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) K

, 9

, 7

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls.

River: (16 BB) A

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results in white below:
SB has 7c Qs (two pair, queens and sevens).
Hero has Kd Ks (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 18 BB.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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