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RiverMonkey
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08-17-2005, 08:47 PM
Post subject: Kill Games - WinRate & Std. Deviation #s?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Without tracking kill pot results completely separate from regular pots, does anyone have any thoughts on how you would calculate your win-rate, std. deviation etc. when you regularly play in B&M kill games?
To date, I've only tracked hours played, buy-in and cash out $$s, so I have no way understanding how the kill elements of the game should be factored in when analyzing my results.
I could make assumptions about the frequency of kill pots etc. and come up with an effective BB size, but perhaps there's a better way.
Also, here's a pretty open-ended question : does anyone care to share any thoughts they might have on the impact kill games might have on your strategies & results: increased variance, tendencies of other players that you can take advantage of in kill pots, playing tigher or looser, etc?
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Hate
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 322
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Probably a very stupid question but what's B&M?
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A'aag
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Straight
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Loyal son of Rochester
Posts: 172
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hate
Probably a very stupid question but what's B&M?
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'Brick & Mortar' as in a real life card room.
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What are kill games?
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journey075
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
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if the same guy wins a pot 2x in a row, stakes are doubled.
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What if he wins a third one? Do they double again? Probably not, but need to make sure.
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journey075
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
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i dont think so...
to tell you the truth i have no idea. theres a 5/10 lhe game near my house that has a half kill. meaning that when somebody wins a pot 2x in a row stakes move up to 7.5/15. sorry i cant be more helpful  .
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Well it would be ridiculous if they doubled again because pretty soon no one will have the stack for the stakes...
It does increase your standard deviation by some am0unt, but less than actually playing the higher stakes. I'd say a 10/20 game becomes an equivalent of a 11/22 game 
The same person wins the pot twice 1/10 of the time
so 1/10 of the time the stakes are doubled
easy
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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No the stakes don't double again. They stay at double ($20/40 with $5 & $10 blinds plus the $20 kill post for a $10/20 full kill game) until the person with the kill button loses a hand, then the game returns to the regular stakes.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RiverMonkey
No the stakes don't double again. They stay at double ($20/40 with $5 & $10 blinds plus the $20 kill post for a $10/20 full kill game) until the person with the kill button loses a hand, then the game returns to the regular stakes.
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Oh, so the person who wins two pots in a row has to post 20 dollars? Does it count as an ante or as a blind?
In that case the standard deviation is slightly higher because you're doing the posting and keep flopping marginal hands.
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by RiverMonkey
No the stakes don't double again. They stay at double ($20/40 with $5 & $10 blinds plus the $20 kill post for a $10/20 full kill game) until the person with the kill button loses a hand, then the game returns to the regular stakes.
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Oh, so the person who wins two pots in a row has to post 20 dollars? Does it count as an ante or as a blind?
In that case the standard deviation is slightly higher because you're doing the posting and keep flopping marginal hands. |
The $20 kill post is a live post, posted by the person who just won two pots in a row. That person also has the option to check or raise when the action gets to them. It's more like a blind than an ante.
I can't say that I agree with your comment about kill games and std. deviation. Obviously you can also enter a kill pot when you are not posting the kill. In fact, you might be likely to do that more often than having the kill button yourself. If you assume you are playing just as well and at the same level of variance in kill pots as do when you play at the regular stakes, then, over a large enough sample, you'd think that would increase your winrate above your 'true' regular stakes winrate with BB=$20. But, (i) that's a big assumption, and (ii) that assumption puts the cart before the horse so to speak; where, from the outset,what I'm trying to determine is the impact the kill is having on my success/results.
What I'm trying to find out is: is there a generally accepted way of calculating your (effective) win-rate (in BB/hr say) and other important stats (like std. deviation etc.) given that you aren't always playing at the $10/20 stakes when you regularly play in a kill game. I'm inclined to think that I'm just going to have to track my results in kill pots separately ... Unfortunately, this means more record keeping.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Just treat is as a single game.
My win rate for 6/12 kill is $30/hr with a stddev of $200/hr.
There is no way to compare the effect of a kill game to a non kill game, because you are playing with different players at effectively different stakes. So comparing 6/12 kill to a 6/12 game with no kill would be the equivalent of comparing 2/4 to 3/6.
Also note that kill games take advantage of poor players, since the biggest flaw is playing too many hands and going too far with them, poor players tend to win more pots. Every time they win 2 in a row, they have to post another blind. This limits their total win.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Just treat is as a single game.
My win rate for 6/12 kill is $30/hr with a stddev of $200/hr.
There is no way to compare the effect of a kill game to a non kill game, because you are playing with different players at effectively different stakes. So comparing 6/12 kill to a 6/12 game with no kill would be the equivalent of comparing 2/4 to 3/6.
Also note that kill games take advantage of poor players, since the biggest flaw is playing too many hands and going too far with them, poor players tend to win more pots. Every time they win 2 in a row, they have to post another blind. This limits their total win.
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Good points re: weaker players in kill games. The kill should drag them down, whereas it should give better players an advantage relative to those other player mistakes being amplified at higher stakes.
I'm not really trying to compare my results in $10/20 kill to a regular $10/20 game. I don't play in a regular $10/20 game. I'm trying to compare my results to some benchmark in order to see how well I'm beating the game and how much room there is for improvement. Ultimately, what I'd like to do is be able to compare my winrate in $$ per hour to what would be considered a good win-rate for the game I'm regularly playing in ($10/20 B&M kill).
I've read many places that if you can beat a B&M limit game for 1.75BB/hour over the long run, you are up there with the best of the best. So, its not quite apples to apples to compare my win-rate in my kill game to this 'benchmark' given that just using BB=$20 for the conversion would not be quite accurate.
Also, congratulations are in order. $30/hr in $6/12 kill seem like a very good win-rate. Ignoring the kill all together, that's 2.5BB/hr ... which would be considered slaughtering the game if it were a a str8-up $6/12 game. Even if you were to assume an effective BB size of say $14, you are still beating that game for the equivalent of over 2 BB/hr. I assume we're talking B&M here.
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it should be max 20% more
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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It is a very soft game... which is why I tend to urge players who can afford it to move up in stakes in B&M as fast as possible.
Another quick thought on standard deviation:
Poker is a lot different than a more mathematical game like blackjack.
In this 6/12 kill game, I have won much more than $230 in an hour, I don't believe I have ever lost $170 in an hour. (though I have come close.)
I also calculate my standard deviation based on when I take notes instead of forcing myself to take detailed notes every hour, so it is probably a little off. However, (and correct me if I am wrong) Your standard deviation should be relatively accurate if you only take notes on your buy in and cash out and time played, as long as your sample size is adequate.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Quote:
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I've read many places that if you can beat a B&M limit game for 1.75BB/hour over the long run, you are up there with the best of the best. So, its not quite apples to apples to compare my win-rate in my kill game to this 'benchmark' given that just using BB=$20 for the conversion would not be quite accurate.
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I am not sure that I agree with this. I think that the stakes and level of play changes this a lot.
where I play, they spread hold 'em games from 3/6 to 75/150. This makes 6/12 the top of "small stakes"
I have heard of casinos which only spread 2/4, 3/6, 4/8 and 5/10, where the "rounders" play the big 5/10 game. So, where I may be beating my 6/12 game for more than 2BB/hr, I could do much worse if table selection wasn't so easy. I can beat the 4/8 game at my particular casino for about 5BB/hr.
Right now I am beating 20/40 for just over 1BB/hr, but there are typically 3 or 4 20/40 tables in this particular casino.
When I play in a casino where 6/12 or 10/20 is the highest available game, I lose far more often.
The winning players in the "big game" at Bellagio (4000/8000) are looking to make less than .5BB/hr. This is one reason that players like Jen Harman often play 1000/2000 or 2000/4000 (one step down) because 1BB/hr there is more than they would make higher.
Most "pros" play in the 300/600 range.
I think what I just rambled on about for far too long is... game selection is the major contributor to BB/hr NOT personal skill.
As has been said before: "It doesn't help to be the tenth best player in the world if the top 9 at at the table with you."
Just ask "Am I winning?" and if yes, ask "would I win more at higher stakes?" and take it from there!
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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