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Chopper

05-02-2009, 12:48 AM Post subject: is it just me..

#1 (permalink)

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or, is the volume here dropping WAY off again? WTF??

we lose Asd and no one starts threads anymore? c'mon, guys, we cant be out of things to talk about.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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LawDude

05-02-2009, 06:03 AM Post subject: Re: is it just me..

#2 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

or, is the volume here dropping WAY off again? WTF??

we lose Asd and no one starts threads anymore? c'mon, guys, we cant be out of things to talk about.

OK, here's one I played bad. 15/30 limit at Hollywood Park. I was in the BB with AdAc. 3 players, including MP1, limp, I raise, all 3 players call.

Flop is Ah9h3h
My usual approach to this sort of thing is to bet unless and until I get a lot of aggression coming back, because a flush draw is much more common than a flush and even with respect to a flush, slow play isn't likely to happen unless it is close to the nuts because of the fear of a fourth heart counterfeiting the hand.

I bet, MP1 calls, CO calls, 1 fold.

Turn is 5s
Pretty harmless card.

I bet, MP1 calls, 1 fold.

River is 5h
I bet, MP1 folds and turns over 9c8h.

Now why did I lead out that river? That was a terrible bet. Not a lot of hands are going to call me, and I am representing that the flush didn't hurt me, which is exactly what may or will cause someone with the flush to fold.

I should have checked with the hope of a check-raise, representing (perhaps) Ace-King and looking afraid of the 4th heart.

DrivingDog

05-02-2009, 10:05 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Did Asd get arrested in a Mayday riot? That's worth talking about.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Chopper

05-05-2009, 01:32 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Location: St. Louis, MO

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Did Asd get arrested in a Mayday riot? That's worth talking about.

nah, he's just pissed at how he's been treated lately. i'll have to track him down soon. guarantee you, he's around somewhere.

lawdude, i dont know that you played that terribly. its a factor of stakes, i'm sure, but i am not checking that river unless i have a read that my villain is aggro. i play so many freaking stations, my mind is not trained to see what you saw there. i bet because i know mid pair will call thinking, "he would have checked the flush at some point, so he cant have it. i bet he missed his 4flush draw and i just hit my 2 pair." at least, i cant think of any other reason they call 3 streets into this aggression....but they do.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

pdk1010

05-05-2009, 03:33 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Posts: 71

i read this post yesterday and wanted to think about it awhile before i posted because i have been studying limit hold em alot lately. Before I get into it i wanted to say that I could be thinking about this all wrong but i would really like to get a discussion going about this post because its something im still trying to understand and i think it is critical to limit hold em. sooooo
i think playing the hand after the flop is unprofitable for us because of reverse implied odds. What i mean is each one of our opponents is going to be dealt a heart 50 percent of the time. Im not good with math so i dont know exactly what that means when you have 3 villains in a hand but suffice to say for now that theres a very high probrability that one of them has a heart.
Now whatever we do from the flop on is allowing our opponent to play us profitably because if we bet he calls .50c to win .76c...............because we are a 82 18 favorite(from pokerstove) and his stake to 18% of the 4.25 pot( if we were playing .50c/1) is .18 x 4.25=.76c, which is good for him.
if we check and he bets then same thing he is betting .50c to win .76c so again profitable....notice im assuming the other two villains will fold here. also all of our outs to improve are non hearts so if we hit one there will probably be no action.
last thought about this hand is that because of reverse implied odds we are going to win a very small amount when we win this hand and lose a large amount when we lose so i say c/f flop is the +ev play here.
I dont know what the hell i just wrote or if it makes sense so i look forward to hearing some discussion.

Chopper

05-05-2009, 05:35 PM

#6 (permalink)

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imo, you are forgetting about two VERY important concepts. (maybe Dog, or someone else can explain better...because they are better...lol.) and, i struggled with this exactly like you are. checking is NOT profitable, though, no matter if the guys are calling profitably or not. you just cannot give free cards.

concept 1... giving free cards allows infinite odds. so, drawing to a one-outer becomes correct...and you dont want that. you MUST charge them to draw against you. they dont hit 50% of the time, individually, so you protect your hand to a degree. as for reverse implieds, are you ever really folding a set of aces? so, yeah, if you get beat, you are paying it off. but, if another heart falls, you wont be raising. so, effectively, you wont be paying villain off in a large way anyway.

concept 2... you are also forgetting your REDRAW to the boat. you have 10 outs twice. thats basically a 40% shot a beating the flush, and you are likely already ahead now. not to mention....what if villain flopped a set of 9's? do you really want to play small ball because you are afraid of the flush...THAT HASNT COME YET?

when calculating reverse implieds, you need to also consider your own implieds on any redraws you have. if you hit them, will you get paid off even more? i suspect, here, if you pair the river after the turn put the fourth heart up, there is a good chance you get 3bets in.

anyone?

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

pdk1010

05-06-2009, 11:48 AM

#7 (permalink)

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i guess what confuses me about this is that its impossible for our opponents to be playin profitably at the same time we are playing profitably.
I still am thinking that in the long run we lose alot of money playing this hand to the river but i suspect there is something im missing.
Im looking forward to hearing more on the subject

<yaawn> "dude you need to give up childish shit like your job, any hobbies, your girlfriend, then u'll get good"

"I hear u screamin girl but my name aint haaarder"

Chopper

05-06-2009, 12:42 PM

#8 (permalink)

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i am telling you i used to think the same way when i had a "made hand" and my opponents were on draws in large/raised pots. and, again, i dont know if i can explain it the best. but, think of it this way...

they are going to call, profitably, for the times they hit. you are going to charge them for the times they dont. they win 1 in 3 times, roughly. you win the rest, theoretically. the problems arise when you flop TP and they flop 2 pr...and you both think the other may be on a draw. or, you flop your set, and villain flops only a gutshot, but wants to chase it. or, you both flop draws and yours is to the nuts, but his isnt. and another million scenarios like these.

you have to factor in ALL the scenarios. and, since you cant pin a guy on an exact holding on the flop, you have to protect your hand against LIKELY draws. you, then, have to deduce what his raise means. is it 2pr+? is it a guy overplaying a draw? is it a "move" from a previously identical situation?

again, since you have incomplete information, and the likely best, but vulnerable, hand, you MUST charge players to beat you. if they do, they do. you will still win enough to be profitable.

limit is a funny game. you can BOTH play a hand profitably and BOTH still make small mistakes. and, he who makes the bigger mistake loses money.

for instance, you bet your set, BUT...your opponent would have bet his draw had you checked...allowing you to c/r and get two bets in while ahead. you both may have been "correct," mathematically speaking (you for betting to protect your hand and him for semi-bluffing his draw. but, you BOTH also made mistakes. (fundamental theorem of poker states that if you play your hand differently than you would have had you seen your opponent's cards, YOU made a mistake.) well, you made a mistake for not check raising when he would bet his draw. and, he made a mistake by semi-bluffing into your made hand when he knew you weren't going to fold to his bet.....had you seen the other's cards.

so, even though you both played the hand profitably/correctly, neither of you played it to the maxx profitability. and, he who makes the bigger mistakes, according to the fundamental theorem, is the losing player......even though he played it "right."

hope that helps a little.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

pdk1010

05-06-2009, 01:25 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Posts: 71

what im thinking is that with this flop if we check then he checks a large majority of the time, and then if we bet the river for a bb and then he calls then his play is unprofitable. Im tired and dont feel like doing the math for that but isnt that correct?

<yaawn> "dude you need to give up childish shit like your job, any hobbies, your girlfriend, then u'll get good"

"I hear u screamin girl but my name aint haaarder"

pdk1010

05-06-2009, 01:41 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Posts: 71

i meant bet the turn in that last post....i work nights and im delirious

<yaawn> "dude you need to give up childish shit like your job, any hobbies, your girlfriend, then u'll get good"

"I hear u screamin girl but my name aint haaarder"

Chopper

05-06-2009, 02:47 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdk1010

in a sense, i can see where you are going. and, its not all wrong. and, with top pair, i likely do the same in a multiway pot. i want a safer turn so i can charge them a bb instead of bloating a pot for them and allowing them to draw correctly twice. for that, i see your point.

however, this is a set! big difference. not only am i best, but i am likely to hold up and i have a redraw to beat ANYTHING you could be drawing to. most times we are on draws, our money does better when it goes in on the flop. therefore, i am jamming the hell out of this flop, if possible, because of the combination of being best at the moment AND a 40% chance at my redraw to beat your draw.

dont forget, i may bet this flop and a big pair may think he is best and raise. again, my hand does best on the flop here, so i am praying somebody hit something and wants to play fast along with me. i am also praying that someone sees that as great odds to draw to the flush. on my good days, i win a gargantuan pot. on my average days i take down a 10BB pot. on my bad days, i get outdrawn. on my suicidal days, i LET THEM draw out cheaply.

again, there is a huge difference in how we play the hand between TPTK on this flop and a set.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

pdk1010

05-06-2009, 03:36 PM

#12 (permalink)

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i see your point and honestly i would play the same way exactly, but my focus of late is trying to make as many +ev plays as humanly possible and this hand has me completely baffled as to whether or not this is truely +ev. isnt there a way we can figure out all outcomes and find out exactly what our expectation was for each play as opposed to what our villain's was.....haha i know that we can do that im just way to freakin exhausted to do it right now....so if no one has it on here tonight when i check ill just do it and get back to you and we can see if what i figure out is correct which it def will not be

Chopper

05-06-2009, 04:58 PM

#13 (permalink)

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remember, to make this as accurate as possible, you will need very accurate ranges on all your villains. and, i dont think it needs to be that complicated.

you have top set and a few dipshits in the hand. bet bet bet. i may throw in a raise on the turn even if the flush hits. and, i am not folding the river unless the action goes absolutely bonkers with all sorts of draws completed. top set is just too big a hand to start "making reads" with, imo.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-06-2009, 04:59 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pdk1010

When I hit a set on a monochrome flop, my opponents could have all sorts of things. First, they might have the flush. In that case, I'm probably going to give them a lot of money but, as Chopper said, at least I'm gonna have some outs to hit quads or a boat. But flopping a flush isn't that common.

What's more common is that someone's going to have a flush draw. In this instance, I have to charge them for the next card. Bear in mind, not everyone is going to chase their flush draw. Most likely, someone with the King of hearts is calling. But how about someone with a very low heart? In other words, I have some fold equity against hands that actually have pot odds to justify a call. That's not a bad situation.

What's also common is that someone else has hit the flop, but not as well as I have. That player is gold to me, because he or she is likely to build the pot for me on the flop (also afraid of the flush). So if someone has a lower set or 2 pair or even 1 pair, I want to be able to extract value from that person who has little or no chance of beating me.

All in all, I think leading out is +EV in this situation, even though every once in awhile we are surely going to end up paying off a flush.

Chopper

05-06-2009, 05:02 PM

#15 (permalink)

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its worth saying that i didnt notice the monotone flop before now. and, that the 4flush hit the river. that said, i will b/f that river. and, honestly, 8hi flushes should be thinking i have a better heart than that 99% of the time and fold....after me donking 3 streets.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-06-2009, 05:09 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

That's kind of why I thought I played the hand poorly, though. That river card is almost ideal (only an ace would be better) and in most cases, the only way I am going to get more money into the pot is to represent that I am scared of the flush, right?

Chopper

05-06-2009, 06:09 PM

#17 (permalink)

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i guess so. my thinking would be that worse hands "may" bluff at this, but i dont see it happening....that would truly be a fishy thing to do on such a board w/ that action.

but, i think you "should" have FE against weaker flushes, too. Thi, and below, should strongly consider folding if you keep betting since YOU would have to be the fish to keep firing in such a spot. and, with a decent image, i would think you would get credit here for being "solid."

so, the balance between inducing a bluff/controlling the pot and bluffing yourself/and remote chance of value betting would be interesting as hell to see in terms of EV.

i dont know that we could show all of that, though, because the math would surely be rather intense with all the possibilities.

so, when it gets "close" (in my mind), i err on the side of aggression....unless my villain is aggro himself. these guys just called along, so i would think b/f would be a fine line on the river. but, there is no way we are folding if we check. since i am investing one bet, i think its better for me to take whatever FE i "should" have and fire a bet since i had initiative and never got raised. after all, if someone dragged a 8hi flush down to this point....1) they have to be thinking i either flopped it or rivered a better flush and 2) they are such the fish, imo, i will make plenty of that back and then some in the future. (oh and NEVER bluff that station again) after all, this fish essentially called you with mid pair turned two weak pair turned weak ass flush after you raised pre and fired all three streets when he should be thinking he was drawing almost completely dead.

that is so bad, i would like to send him a personal invitation to a home game i am hosting IN HIS HONOR!

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-06-2009, 06:37 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

Without defending the guy (you are right that he had a really fishy line on this hand), I think part of the issue here is that there's a huge amount of c-betting at these tables by the pre-flop raiser.

In other words, the typical betting line is this:

Pre-flop. Somebody may or may not limp. Somebody raises. Folds to the blinds, who call along with any limpers.

Flop. Checks to the raiser, who bets. Everyone calls.

Turn. Checks to the raiser, who bets. Someone often calls.

River. Raiser guesses whether he should bet. Caller guesses whether he should call.

Given that, it's not entirely implausible that someone with weak pair and a flush draw is going to be calling me down to the river. He doesn't assume I have a set of aces. Heck, he doesn't even necessarily assume I have a pair of aces! I'm c-betting a scary board representing aces or hearts. That's what makes it a pretty clear value play to just donk it in with my set.

The question is, now I am at the river and I have hit a good card that looks like it might be a bad card (say, if I have ace-king or something). And it may look like a good card to the guy who is calling me. Why shouldn't I pretend to cower in fear at it?

Chopper

05-06-2009, 08:21 PM

#19 (permalink)

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imo, because he will check behind what you beat and rarely bluff at your "weakness." he was scared of the flush the whole time; however, he isnt folding a K. he wanted to fold, but couldnt fold. the other guy couldnt fold his 9. but, they dont have the balls to bluff at you with those cards because of all the hearts. after all, when YOU are in a pot, you are playing it aggressively. they have about zero idea where they stand.....so they just call and hope you are bluffing.

but, when given the chance, they will gladly check behind because they dont have any initiative and dont see the opportunity to blow you off a hand. they dont see a check from you as "giving up." they see it as, "i no longer know where i am either." so, they take the free showdown.

so, you save a bet when you are behind. you lose a couple bets when you are ahead. and, you never fully use what FE you "should" have...which in this case, is none. so, imo, it becomes spend one bet by calling or earn two bets by betting. granted, you are behind quite often to the 4th heart, but they wont raise without the Kh so you spend the same BB either way.

you can fold that to a raise, from these guys based on your table, cant you? so, b/f the river knowing any raise is the flush and NEVER a bluff.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

05-06-2009, 09:42 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

If the 4th heart doesn't pair the board, the river is probably b/f, possibly c/c. Depends on whether I think the villain might bluff at me without a heart.

But the 4th heart here on the river paired the board and gave me my boat. So the only hand I can lose to is 55. Since that is such a small part of villain's range (indeed, because the first 5 came on the turn, I have to believe that the villain called the flop with a pair of 5's and no heart to even contemplate it as part of his range), I am not even worried about it; if villain raises me, I'm probably re-raising. The question is whether I can induce the villain to put a bet into the pot. And I still suspect I that I was more likely to succeed at this if I had checked the river.

Chopper

05-06-2009, 10:02 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Posts: 4,255

maybe. and, i still need to learn to read a HH. for some reason, i get caught up in a "situation" and dont reread the HHs as i post.

in this case, i likely still lead the river into passive villains. reasoning: i wont miss value AND if they think i am full of crap/bluffing, or trying to blow them off with something weaker, they may raise with a bigger, painted flush.....and, i can 3bet them.

if villain is aggro, this works sort of reversed, imo. i will check, only to get the 3bet if he hit the flush, in which case i cap.

i just dont like to slowplay much in big pots. i take what i get. and, when i am pounding a board, and improving along the way, others will often improve with me. when they do, they likely put me on TP and they raise. i hit them with a 3bet which almost always gets called.

my point is: if we are playing the majority of our hands fast and semi-bluffing fairly frequently, our villains will call us lightly, and often test us with a raise when the board gives them a "big" hand. here, we hope they pick up a big hand and we smack them silly.

i may slowplay sets on dry flops, quads for a street, boats when the flush DRAW is out, and thats about it. once the draws come in, or i see anything that leaves me vulnerable to a station to catch his miracle, i charge the shit out of them....end of story.

if they are willing to pay me, why not charge them and NEVER offer a free look at the next card? if i check, i am either c/r'ing you or giving up. the only way for you to tell is to bet and see what i do. that way, you dont have me on a hand, and the only way to keep a pot cheap with me is to give ME free cards. good luck with that if i run goot.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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