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JTs Turn Lead out. Am I a donk?

  
 
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Ragnar4
Old 11-15-2006, 12:23 AM     Post subject: JTs Turn Lead out. Am I a donk? #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, T.
3 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 3, 2, K (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (9.70 BB) Q (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (18.70 BB) 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Button raises, Hero folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 22.70 BB
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Bunny
Old 11-15-2006, 01:36 AM     Post subject: Re: JTs Turn Lead out. Am I a donk? #2 (permalink)  

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You are defenetely behind on the turn and the pot will reach showdown.

You have 15 outs, so increasing the pot is -EV since you will not even win the pot 1/3 of the time.

+ You will loose big time when you do hit your flush but someone has a higher flush or a full house.
Check/Call on the turn.
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NWNewell
Old 11-15-2006, 01:45 AM #3 (permalink)  
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lol.... well, sort of.

You are about 32.6% to hit your flush or straight.

So you are almost 2:1 to win, and as long as no one has the higher flush.

With MP3 raising the flop, I would be somewhat worried that he might raise the turn if I bet out. The reason I don't like this is because I'm afraid he might chase out the Button. This will lower our overall EV.

I want both players to stay in. With 2:1 drawing odds, and two oppponents, any additional bets you get (or don't get) is almost wash in your EV.

So, don't care about the additional money on the turn, but I do care about chasing one these guys out.

And when I think about the possibility (even though small) of a higher flush draw or hitting a fullhouse when you flush, I definitely don't care for contributing any more money than I have to and possibly chasing someone out.

Obviously, either play is positive EV for the hand, overall . So it is not terrible. But it is not optimal. Betting out can't do too much to raise your EV, only very possibly lower it.
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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sarbox68
Old 11-15-2006, 01:49 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Okay... my 3 cents worth...

1) I'm good PF.
2) I sortta get the 3-bet logic on the flop. You got 3 players in which gives you +EV for every $ if you can keep them in. But you aren't drawing to the nut-flush... not even second or third nut. Best u can hope for out of the flop is 4th nut flush, a back door straight (against better running spades) and no prayer of top pair. Were I in your shoes, I would have folded after the 3-bet... but I've been called a little too tight before.
3) The only thing you've gained on the turn is 3 additional outs to the straight (which still could have you coming in second best to a higher spade flush). The outs from your flush is still discounted cause your top card is weak. And you're 3-bet again... I might think maybe if heads up, but you're still multi-way at this point.
4) I agree with your river play. No reason to cold call 2 big bets with crap...

If I'm doing the math right, even discounting the outs you've got on the turn for the flush, I THINK the pot odds are okay. But I'm still out on the turn. If someone else is on the spade draw, the odds are still good you'll lose to at least a pair, maybe set, etc. If MP2 or MP3 hit the draw when you do, I'll take odds to nuts they've got you beat with a Q,K or A.

Just my convoluted thinking anyhoo....
 
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Bunny
Old 11-15-2006, 02:46 AM #5 (permalink)  

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Fold the turn?

With 6 clean outs.
And you have 7 spade outs which will be good most of the time.
K, Q of spade are very doubtfull outs.

I have not done the math, but with that big pot i am sure you have plenty of outs to make a call very much +EV.
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Nehmer
Old 11-15-2006, 04:30 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunny
Fold the turn?

With 6 clean outs.
And you have 7 spade outs which will be good most of the time.
K, Q of spade are very doubtfull outs.

I have not done the math, but with that big pot i am sure you have plenty of outs to make a call very much +EV.
Yeah, there is no reason to even do the math in this situation, because the pot odds are WAY better than they need to be here and folding the turn would be a HUGE mistake. I would even take it so far as to say, I'd rather accidently misclick and raise 27o UTG in a hand than to misclick fold the turn with a straight and flush draw in a huge pot like this
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littleogre
Old 11-15-2006, 10:52 AM #7 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 calling the turn is the best play imho but i don't hate raising either.
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Bunny
Old 11-15-2006, 11:12 AM #8 (permalink)  

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I hate -EV and increasing the pot on the turn is just that.
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NWNewell
Old 11-15-2006, 11:47 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunny
I hate -EV and increasing the pot on the turn is just that.
Basically what I was trying to illustrate in detail....

It actually is not much -EV until you taking into account discounts for higher flush and full house possibilities. Then you decision clearly favors c/c instead of betting out.
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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sinky
Old 11-15-2006, 01:47 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I like this example.

Is betting the turn really -ev ? I only think that is true if no further bets go in on the river. For the sake of argument lets say that you have a 30% chance of winning.

Your EV when the turn is 3 bet and 2 players call is (0.3 * 6) + (0.7 *-3) = -0.3 EV.
Your EV when you check and its raised and 2 players call is (0.3*4)+(0.7*-2) = -0.2 EV

So betting the turn was only a miniscule 0.1 BB worse than check / calling.

However, is there any extra value in disguising our draw by betting out on the turn ? Which play will induce more action on the river when we hit the Flush ? We only need to get 1 extra BB on the river 10% of the time to break even.

Thoughts.
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NWNewell
Old 11-15-2006, 03:14 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sinky
I like this example.

Is betting the turn really -ev ? I only think that is true if no further bets go in on the river. For the sake of argument lets say that you have a 30% chance of winning.

Your EV when the turn is 3 bet and 2 players call is (0.3 * 6) + (0.7 *-3) = -0.3 EV.
Your EV when you check and its raised and 2 players call is (0.3*4)+(0.7*-2) = -0.2 EV

So betting the turn was only a miniscule 0.1 BB worse than check / calling.

However, is there any extra value in disguising our draw by betting out on the turn ? Which play will induce more action on the river when we hit the Flush ? We only need to get 1 extra BB on the river 10% of the time to break even.

Thoughts.
I agree, as my two posts above state.

So you wil agree that betting out is slightly less EV... but betting, check/calling, check/raising is all pretty much a wash and not of significat concern (I wouldn't call betting a donk play for this alone at all!)

But with that thought, there is no real point in trying to build a pot either, right?

So why are we betting? What will that accompish?

I think it can only hurt us (more than just because of the odds you calculated). My problem with betting out because I don't know what the other two are going to do. MP3 has showed a lot agression the whole way. So, I think it is reasonably likely that he will raise my bet. And if he does, the button, who has only been calling, could very likely fold when facing two cold. And that would be have a much bigger impact on our EV (dropping it by probably ~0.8BB... plus lowering the chases of collecting extra bets on the river when your hand does come in).

Not chasing out that 3rd player is my main concern... I want to keep him in! Especially when building the pot does nothing for my EV at this point, but keeping the 3rd play in does!
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 11-15-2006, 04:36 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 I actually don't mind the turn play in the fact that it disguises our huge draw.

I really do not like the flop 3bet

Another thought, If you think you are more than 33% to win the pot going to the river why aren't you capping the turn? Sure, its marginal, but if you feel you have 17 outs here then you are better than a 1/3 winner here. I would be pretty sure that the button does not hold any of your outs and that MP3 may only be holding 1 (something like AK).
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Nehmer
Old 11-15-2006, 04:53 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I actually don't mind the turn play in the fact that it disguises our huge draw.

I really do not like the flop 3bet

Another thought, If you think you are more than 33% to win the pot going to the river why aren't you capping the turn? Sure, its marginal, but if you feel you have 17 outs here then you are better than a 1/3 winner here. I would be pretty sure that the button does not hold any of your outs and that MP3 may only be holding 1 (something like AK).
How do you figure you have 17 outs? You have 9 for the flush draw and 6 non-spades for the straight...Should be 15 outs. Also, I don't think you can assume button doesn't have a spade here at all(the K of spades is especially likely). I would assume that 2 of my outs are probably gone between spades and aces. So really, you have about 13 effective outs here. Which is still good enough for calling anything you might have to call, but definately not good enough to bet/raise unless you think 3-betting the flop gives you a chance to fold these guys out with a turn bet.
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NWNewell
Old 11-17-2006, 01:55 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I actually don't mind the turn play in the fact that it disguises our huge draw.

I really do not like the flop 3bet

Another thought, If you think you are more than 33% to win the pot going to the river why aren't you capping the turn? Sure, its marginal, but if you feel you have 17 outs here then you are better than a 1/3 winner here. I would be pretty sure that the button does not hold any of your outs and that MP3 may only be holding 1 (something like AK).
Nehmer already covered my thoughts on your 17 outs assesment.

But I just wanted to say that I think chasing out the third player probably has a biger impact on our EV than disguising out draw... not completely sure though...
My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
 
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