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Fnord
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10-22-2004, 02:18 AM
Post subject: JJ hand to talk about...
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Every street is interesting.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Fnord is CO with J , J .
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Fnord raises, Button folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Fnord calls.
Flop: (16 SB) 9, 5, T (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Fnord raises, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.
Turn: (13 BB) Q (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Fnord bets, SB raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Fnord calls.
River: (19 BB) 5 (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 folds, Fnord calls.
Final Pot: 21 BB
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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I'm going to guess he had AQ suited and is just very aggressive. Or he had an overpair and actually played it pretty well. I'm almost positive that you didn't win and it's just too bad the straight draw sort of commited you to the pot on his turn reraise.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
I'm going to guess he had AQ suited and is just very aggressive. Or he had an overpair and actually played it pretty well. I'm almost positive that you didn't win and it's just too bad the straight draw sort of commited you to the pot on his turn reraise.
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The decision on every street was tough. I ought to post this one on 2+2 after I'm done with it. I think I'm beat on the river at least 90%, but at 20:1 it's really hard to find a laydown for any hand with a chance.
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mike4066
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,943
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I give up..
I mis-read the hand the first time, now its 12:30am.. can't think well enough now.
Will try again tomorrow 
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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my thinking for why his play seems strange is that he thinks there is very little chance he is going to lose. He 3-bets preflop showing a probably high pair. Comes right out and bets the flop because he pretty much has to after 3-betting preflop. Then when Fnord raises on the flop, he knows that Fnord is almost certainly going to bet on the turn, so instead of scaring him with a 3-bet on the flop, he goes for the check-raise on the turn. This play maximizes his profit if he holds something like TT or 99. It's a little risky if he holds QQ, KK, or AA because Fnord might have the set and come back over the top on the turn.
Now if he holds AQ, the play is going to look exactly the same. He bets on the flop because he almost has to despite not hitting his hand. Then he calls the reraise thinking he has 2 overs and he might hit something. He does hit his Q and check-raises the turn. Either way, I think he played this hand pretty well. I personally would not 3 bet preflop with AQ, but with AQs it is definately not too bad an idea.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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My thought was that the turn c/r was a really cleaver way to protect a AA/KK over-pair. If he had a stronger holding then why would he want to isolate me and make the field face 2 big bets cold?
Not that I'm saying he had AA/KK...
How often do you guys think I'm good on the river? Or let me put it another way, how much would you pay for my hand if I stopped the action right before showdown?
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stuck
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 586
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I wouldn't imagine you're good at the river very often here.
Assuming he's a good player - which by his betting he seems to be - I can't imagine that he wouldn't have the Q or better unless he's a very aggressive player and would rep the Q with nothing better than AK hoping everyone folds out (though I'd say that possibility is slim. He could also be aggressively playing a small PP, but that's also unlikely). Hard to fold that 20:1 though.
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If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..
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Miggo
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 153
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If this is trying to put him on a hand, I'll guess he's got QQ. I think that matches all his betting. He bets after the flop, then calls after you raise, maybe he's worried you flopped a set. I think he check raises on the turn because he made his hand, and continued to bet after that.
So I'll guess he has QQ.
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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A really tricky LAgg could play AJs this way, check-raising the turn to clean up his ace outs against A5 or A9. I don't think that's the most likely holding, but I'd put it at better than 18:1, so I think you have to call the turn raise and the river bet.
I agree that a monster holding like KJ or QQ is unlikely.
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LockLow34
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Ashburn, VA
Posts: 266
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If he's a solid player I'd make him for AA/KK/QQ for reasons similar to what nehmer described.
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Miggo
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 153
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Really interesting conversation. I don't know about AJs. That seems really aggressive to me check/raising on the turn with nothing. Maybe he had KJs. With 8 outs I can see betting PostFlop. I think I've been looking at this too much, but every time I replay it I get the impression that the Q on the turn made his hand, and to even be that far 3 betting PreFlop etc. I think he had to have QQ with an outside chance at KJs.
Take it easy on me, I'm new to this site on Holdem but have been learning alot here and doing ok playing at PP and EP. Thanks for all the help and knowledge.
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miggo
Really interesting conversation. I don't know about AJs. That seems really aggressive to me check/raising on the turn with nothing. Maybe he had KJs. With 8 outs I can see betting PostFlop. I think I've been looking at this too much, but every time I replay it I get the impression that the Q on the turn made his hand, and to even be that far 3 betting PreFlop etc. I think he had to have QQ with an outside chance at KJs.
Take it easy on me, I'm new to this site on Holdem but have been learning alot here and doing ok playing at PP and EP. Thanks for all the help and knowledge.
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AJs wouldn't exactly be nothing. He'd have 4 outs to the second nut straight, 4 outs to the nut straight, and 3 outs to his A, but it may be zero outs to the A if someone holds A5 or A9. Check-raising the turn might chase those hands since they'd have 5 apparent outs (8.2:1) but only 8:1 pot odds to call. The pot is laying SB at least 7.5:1 odds on his raise, and he would have somewhere between 4.75:1 and 3.3:1 odds of making a hand that could win the pot.
The reason SB doesn't have KJ is that he would be smarter to go for the overcalls rather than making UTG+1, MP1, and MP2 cold call two bets on the turn. Fnord raised preflop and on the flop, so SB knows that the other players are likely to check to Fnord on the turn. If SB is any good, he made this play to thin the field.
Again, I'm not saying that AJs is the most likely hand (in fact I think it's somewhat unlikley), but I think it's better than a 20:1 longshot. I'd have to call.
Fnord's call of the turn raise is automatic with the OESD plus the draw to a set of hooks.
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Miggo
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 153
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
[AJs wouldn't exactly be nothing. He'd have 4 outs to the second nut straight, 4 outs to the nut straight, and 3 outs to his A, but it may be zero outs to the A if someone holds A5 or A9. Check-raising the turn might chase those hands since they'd have 5 apparent outs (8.2:1) but only 8:1 pot odds to call. The pot is laying SB at least 7.5:1 odds on his raise, and he would have somewhere between 4.75:1 and 3.3:1 odds of making a hand that could win the pot.
The reason SB doesn't have KJ is that he would be smarter to go for the overcalls rather than making UTG+1, MP1, and MP2 cold call two bets on the turn. Fnord raised preflop and on the flop, so SB knows that the other players are likely to check to Fnord on the turn. If SB is any good, he made this play to thin the field.
Again, I'm not saying that AJs is the most likely hand (in fact I think it's somewhat unlikley), but I think it's better than a 20:1 longshot. I'd have to call.
Fnord's call of the turn raise is automatic with the OESD plus the draw to a set of hooks.
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Gees, I this is why I'm afraid to post sometimes. ** I should go sit in the corner. So there are 4 - 8's, 4 - K's, as outs, maybe 3 - A's, could you count 3 - J's that he feels are possible outs to him too? Probably not because of the Q on the turn.
I know you said it's not likely, but will people bet that much on AJs from the small blind? If I had AJs from the small blind, I think I would call amybe 1 raise, and then probably check with that flop. Maybe I'm not aggressive enough. Thanks for explaining that though. I didn't think of that. I'm sticking with the QQ though. I think because it would take that for me to bet like that. Thanks for the explanation.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Yup, he had QQ.
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