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Hermann the Lombard
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11-28-2007, 06:08 PM
Post subject: JJ c/r on the turn
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J , J .
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (6.50 SB) 3 , 4 , 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls.
Turn: (6.25 BB) T (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero ...
Numbers are based on very few hands, but UTG has been 43/4.8/1.7 and BB has been 36/7.1 (I don't have AF numbers but she WtSD only 20 and W$SD precisely zero). One interesting note: on another hand UTG called me to SD with AA without ever raising, though the turn put a second King on the board and may have made him hesitate about raising me. Anyway, he could have a primo hand despite the lack of PF action, so the c/r is scary.
He could have had a wide range to see the flop even with my raise, but it seems that he'd have something higher than my JJ for the c/r, up to and including a straight. At this instant I'm getting 10:1 but I expect to call one more bet to get to SD, I'm drawing to 2 outs, and I can't count on SB contributing so my odds are more like 22.5:4 or 5.5:1. The pot is medium-sized. Seems like I should fold.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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turn agr please. In general though one pair is rarely good against a turn c-r so i would lean towards fold.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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If it was heads up it would be a tougher spot, but if he is check-raising against you and the BB, he has something solid like a set very often.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
turn agr please. In general though one pair is rarely good against a turn c-r so i would lean towards fold.
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Sample size is too small to be meaningful (probably for everything except VP$IP), but *including* this hand the Turn AF is 4.00.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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the question is a simple one... Would this player raise the turn with only a T? if that is the case of course you call... if he is type player that would only raise 2P or bettor then you have to figure that if he has say T6 you have 8 outs for a bettor hand... if he has a straight you're fucked... you have to narrow down his raising range in this spot to make a good play IMO... TAF helps a lot... if this player was like a 0.2 TAF then i'd fold it without thinking about it... if they happened to be a 3.0 or something i'd call without reconsidering...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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mk84
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I have lost so much money and alway got bad beat.....
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
TAF helps a lot... if this player was like a 0.2 TAF then i'd fold it without thinking about it... if they happened to be a 3.0 or something i'd call without reconsidering...
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...and at 1.7 it approaches a coin flip!
I guess under 2.0 I should lean even farther toward a fold.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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i think it is forbiden at stars and i don't have it anyway but poker-edge would be a handy bit of software to have in this spot. It will give you a players exact win percentage when they raise or c-r the turn. So you could check and say utg wins 82 percent of the time when c-raising the turn
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
i think it is forbiden at stars and i don't have it anyway but poker-edge would be a handy bit of software to have in this spot. It will give you a players exact win percentage when they raise or c-r the turn. So you could check and say utg wins 82 percent of the time when c-raising the turn
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PokerAce has this stat as well and to my knowledge PA is not verboten at Stars (or if it is no-one has told me yet). Only problem is it takes >500 hands to become statistically reliable because there are so few occasions in which the turn gets raised (as a pct. of total hands played that is).
Without a solid read I just call down and hope for the best. A lot of times the guy is getting carried away with KT or AT, and even if he has two pair you have some outs. If he has a set you're pretty much screwed but pot is big enough to call down imo.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Without a solid read I just call down and hope for the best. A lot of times the guy is getting carried away with KT or AT, and even if he has two pair you have some outs. If he has a set you're pretty much screwed but pot is big enough to call down imo.
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That was my approximate thought process in the heat of battle, along with "I don't have to be right very often for this to be a good call." For completeness, here's the rest of the story:
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (6.50 SB) 3, 4, 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls.
Turn: (6.25 BB) T (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB calls $0.17 (All-In).
River: (12.10 BB) 8 (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 14.10 BB
Results in white:
*** SHOW DOWN ***
UTG shows [Ad Ah] (a pair of Aces)
HermannTL: mucks hand
UTG collected $0.44 from side pot
BB: shows [Kd 5s] (high card King)
UTG collected $2.25 from main pot
So that's the second time in two orbits that he limped with AA and did not raise the flop. This time he raised the river. Yes, I made notes. Now quit drooling at the prospect of playing these two, they won't survive to reach meaningful stakes!
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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i'm sorry but any decent player would love to play the dude that was utg. He makes a mistake preflop by just flat calling his aces when they are 100 percent to be in front. Keep in mind we are at penny stakes so a raise isn't gonna scare anybody. then he bet callsthe river. Now on the turn when he is not nearly as dominat against the board as he was on the flop and pf he decides to come to life. Looks like a clear case of fancy play sysdrome to me. His play is fine in certain spots but not in this one
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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He passed up an edge in protection to underrepresent his hand to get maximum value against players who cant fold overpairs to turn raises.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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well ya can't really protect your hand at those levels and even if he raised pf it ain't like the other players are gonna fold for 1 more small bet playing the way he played he made 14.10 bb which is good.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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He barely made any more profit than he would have if he just raised preflop, and if someone behind him makes two pair or better because he let them in cheap then he just fancied himself out of the pot.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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like i said a clear case of fancy play syndrome. not that i don't suffer from it myself from time to time 
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
i'm sorry but any decent player would love to play the dude that was utg.
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Precisely what I had in mind! I didn't want to leave that table but got too tired to play well enough (well enough to fold an overpair to a turn raise, for example). 
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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