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midas06
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03-06-2006, 10:10 PM
Post subject: Jackpot tables vs regular
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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At Party Poker.
Higher rake on the jackpot tables. Which are more +EV to play?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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The short answer: No one knows
The long answer:
No one to my knowledge has done any statistical studies containing significantly large enough samples to draw a conclusion..
Id be interested to see a comparison between 50,000 hands at jackpot tables and 50,000 hands at the non-jackpots, But its not feasible for one person to play 100,000 hands to get such an answer -- either way they'd make more by moving up in stakes.
Beyond statistical study, there are some people who say they like the jackpot tables, but all we're left with is value judgements, "I think theyre softer, so I play there." well, that doesnt prove anything.
I will say that from my experience they definitely are a little bit fishier. Pretty similar to the people from the B&M rooms who won't bet trip kings because they dont want to lose the possibility of hitting the jackpot on the river. 
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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search 2p2
it was done.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
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the same reason people choose to play at party instead of stars, even though stars has a much better rake structure.
i believe at 5/10 and above the extra rake is negligible in exchange for the worser quality in opponents.
also, do realize that these jackpot tables encourage bad players to chase more with their long shots because they can win the jackpot. it's very profitable.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
search 2p2
it was done.
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Well what was the conclusion?
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
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Well, I dont remember for all limits or the size of the jackpot.
But I do know that at some determined point that the jackpot reaches, the extra .50 becomes profitable. Really you just have to do the math on how often quad 8s or better gets beat and multiply that by .5 and the jackpot has to be greater than that pot.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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That doesnt take in account the weakness of the opponents, which is the crux of the issue.
Realistically, none of us care about the jackpot. We know our chances of hitting it are fairly remote. But we know that other people don't know that (or intrinsically do but put on some sort of 'suspension of rational thought' when gaming.)
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Posts: 637
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Last time this issue came up in this thread:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=24662
I posted this response:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thenonsequitur
I've also noticed that the players are, in general, relatively weaker on the bad beat tables, and people at these tables also like to chase straight flushes more than usual. But I think good table selection practices can usually find you non-bad-beat tables that are just as good. So instead of choosing from the top 20% of bad beat tables, for example, you choose from the top 10% of regular tables (I'm making up the numbers, but you get the idea).
OTOH, if you only play at the bad beat tables when the jackpot is bigger than X (I don't care to do the actual formulation of X), it will be theoretically a small amount +EV to play at these tables...in the LOOOOOOONG run. After enough hands of losing .50 each on your winning hands but winning rare jackpots you will be ahead. But I would argue that you can't really play enough hands to realistically gain from the long-run effect that the big jackpots have so you will probably just notice the -.50/hand on your winning hands. I am arguing this without doing any math, so my intuition could just be wrong.
And playing when the jackpot is smaller than X is just mathematicaly -EV.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
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Quote:
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playing when the jackpot is smaller than X is just mathematically -EV
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is not an accurate statement. We cant quantify the skill of our opponents, which up our entire profit. If we're playing $10/$20 and gaining an extra bet per hand because of exceptionally weak players, the $0.50 extra paid in rake is HUGELY profitable.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
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playing when the jackpot is smaller than X is just mathematically -EV
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is not an accurate statement. We cant quantify the skill of our opponents, which up our entire profit. If we're playing $10/$20 and gaining an extra bet per hand because of exceptionally weak players, the $0.50 extra paid in rake is HUGELY profitable. |
If you were to use random tables in your selection, you would be right.
HOWEVER, since we are finding the best tables at any certain limit, the best 10/20 non-jackpot tables are better than the best 10/20 jackpot tables unless the jackpot is over a certain number. It is not like the number tables on Party is so small that the only place to find a good table is to pay a higher rake for it.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Sorry, my mistake. I forgot to qualify my last statement by saying it applies under to the assumption I made in the first paragraph (that with good table selection practices you can find non-jackpot tables just as good jackpot-tables), and under the assumption that these table selection practices are being implemented.
So basically, what elipsesjeff said.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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all I know is I got two royal flushes in an hour and a half at the NONJACKPOT party tables and I am pretty sick about it.
*weeps*
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
all I know is I got two royal flushes in an hour and a half at the NONJACKPOT party tables and I am pretty sick about it.
*weeps*
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The high hand jackpot is definately not worth it.
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dsaxton
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It seems that on a given hand, you have a certain probability of hitting the jackpot. If that probability times the size of the jackpot was greater than the additional expected rake on a random deal, then you'd prefer to play the jackpot table than the non-jackpot table. Obviously this won't always be the case, so it depends.
Honestly, doing the math is probably a waste of time. Just play non-jackpot tables. The jackpot tables are probably some type of hustle like the "side bet" option.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Honestly, doing the math is probably a waste of time. Just play non-jackpot tables. The jackpot tables are DEFINITELY some type of hustle like the "side bet" option.
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FYP.
Honestly, do you expect any Evil Empire Corporation like Party Poker to risk its bottom line in any way just for its customers? No way. Saying that its profitable to play on the bad beat jackpot tables is like saying that in the roulette section there is a special set of tables where numbers pay 39:1 and there are special craps tables where lucky sevens pay 5:1.
Not. Ever. Going to happen. (as long as corporations like money)
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Honestly, doing the math is probably a waste of time. Just play non-jackpot tables. The jackpot tables are DEFINITELY some type of hustle like the "side bet" option.
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FYP.
Honestly, do you expect any Evil Empire Corporation like Party Poker to risk its bottom line in any way just for its customers? No way. Saying that its profitable to play on the bad beat jackpot tables is like saying that in the roulette section there is a special set of tables where numbers pay 39:1 and there are special craps tables where lucky sevens pay 5:1.
Not. Ever. Going to happen. (as long as corporations like money) |
Missing. The. Point.
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