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I've Been Varianced!!!!!

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elipsesjeff

02-13-2005, 02:09 AM Post subject: I've Been Varianced!!!!!

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Oh well, add 5 BB from Pacific and you've got a -47 BB day. I might go back to Pacific and earn a little of it back.

I'll post some hands later when I feel better.

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guitarhero14

02-13-2005, 02:43 AM

#2 (permalink)

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sorry about the downswing. Just looks like your big hands arent holding up yet. Keep up the good play and dont go on tilt.

-guitar

elipsesjeff

02-13-2005, 02:47 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by guitarhero14

sorry about the downswing. Just looks like your big hands arent holding up yet. Keep up the good play and dont go on tilt.

Thanks, I knew it was comin, I'm just sad that its not even 10 pm on a saturday night, I want to play some more but I've lost my quota for today I would kill myself if i kept playing and i ended up losing more today.

Poker will be here tomorrow, I just want to play now.

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Fnord

02-13-2005, 03:17 AM

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Welcome to the club. It's an important growing experience.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

02-13-2005, 03:26 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I want to play some more but I've lost my quota for today I would kill myself if i kept playing and i ended up losing more today.

Poker will be here tomorrow, I just want to play now.

You so silly. If your head is clear and the game is good, PLAY!

For what it's worth, I think you've picked up some bad habbits and moved up too fast.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

elipsesjeff

02-13-2005, 04:36 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

You so silly. If your head is clear and the game is good, PLAY!

Yeah, thats how a -50 BB day turns into a -100 BB day.

And, I think whatever habits I picked up didnt hurt me today. The players at 5/10 arent taht much better than 3/6. I think moving down would be detrimental.

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gabe

02-13-2005, 05:29 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by guitarhero14

sorry about the downswing. Just looks like your big hands arent holding up yet. Keep up the good play and dont go on tilt.

i find that whenever i have downswings its not because i'm not getting good cards, but becaues my good hands dont hold up

Toasty

02-13-2005, 10:24 PM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2004

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47BB swing isn't really that much, I admit its a lot for a small amount of hands but I expect to have swings like this at least once per month (had a 75BB one this month already, that was fun, AKo is actually still a loser for the month).

I think stopping is a good idea even if your head is clear as losing that much that quick will probably put you on soft tilt. You'll start expecting to be beaten and won't play as aggressive as you normally would which leads to being outdrawn more etc...

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

elipsesjeff

02-13-2005, 10:38 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Toasty

I agree with you there, I ended up playing more that night and won about $100 back. I'm going to post the stats from this weekend, and I am still very pleased.

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elipsesjeff

02-13-2005, 10:56 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Stats starting since Friday:

I'm in a really good mood, only because these numbers DONT include pacific, which I made like a whopping 5 BB there today, so I'm still up on the weekend.

Today was a nasty swingy session. Started up 20 BB real quick, I need only about 5 BB to break even from yesterday's session. I was at absolute and Pacific 5/10, and broke even with those combined, the tables really tightened up so I got out of there. Went back to Party, had 12 BB to go to break even from yesterday's session, I started 3 tabling. Lost three or 4 huge pots where I dominated my opponent. Lost AA to QTo, lost QQ to QJo, lost JJ to J9o. I was losing TPTK like they were going out of style. Then Bam bam bam, i had AA, KK, and QQ on three consecutive tables, won them all, the AA was vs a KK rock and it was a huge pot. I ended that session only down 5 BB after I started out down 20 or more.

So, today I'm up about 20 BB, won 10 BB last night after the downswing, and I won about 15 BB Friday night. You add that up and its break even baby. I will take it. I didn't give up today either, I knew I wasnt getting outplayed, just out drawn. I got pissed and, after 3 betting A high on the flop (the guy proceed to check/fold the turn) I decided to cool down and take things slow.

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guitarhero14

02-13-2005, 11:14 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Good thing you didnt go on tilt. Congrats on keeping your head above water. How much are you learning at 5/10?

-guitar

Toasty

02-13-2005, 11:21 PM

#12 (permalink)

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I know it's hard not to focus on the short term but thats what you have to try to gear yourself towards. you have to try to think in terms of your long term BB/100 if thats 2BB/100 and you play 1k hands you have made 20BBs regardless of your actual results..

It's very hard and i'm getting there but it still gets to me if i play 1k-1.5k of hands and finish down. I've added a 1 hour hand eval to each session and its a great way to spot leaks / weak play etc. It also makes you feel a lot better on the down swing days...

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

elipsesjeff

02-13-2005, 11:37 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by guitarhero14

Good thing you didnt go on tilt. Congrats on keeping your head above water. How much are you learning at 5/10?

Besides pushing people off of pots not too much.

One thing to look out for:

The call/reraise preflop. Although one guy was a douche and did a check/cap with 99 instead of folding....i didnt get it. The good players will do this with AA and KK, the bad players will just do it to build the pot.

I really dont like to call/reraise myself preflop. I find it hard enough to win with AA and KK, thats all i need is to let other people in the pot. I also think its a dead giveaway, where before I could be raising with AJo or KQo. Especially when I'm three bet back to, I prefer to call that HU and act like I dont have the AA.

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guitarhero14

02-13-2005, 11:54 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Sounds to me that some of these guys are "tricky". Does it really work out for them? BTW: what is your goal for BB/100?

-guitar

AidanN20

02-13-2005, 11:54 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Im still picking on up things, by being up 10BB you mean 10x10? = $100 right?

also whats VP$IP?

Dont F' with me, I can grind it out like a bot

Toasty

02-13-2005, 11:59 PM

#16 (permalink)

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yes on the 1st one

and VPIP is Voluntary put in pot it looks like VP$IP on poker tracker (which is a stats programme for online poker)

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

Chicago_Kid

02-14-2005, 06:05 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Hate those swings...

Just moved up a level and OF COURSE I got smacked with a huge downswing to start (50 BB in my first 45 mins). Tough to see your first experience at a higher limit go way negative off the bat...and then it takes forever to get back to positive.

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

elipsesjeff

02-14-2005, 06:22 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid

That sucks man. I think the first 50 BB swing of any level is the hardest. I remember how hard it was for me when I lost my first 50 BB at 2/4 in a day and how shitty I felt. Then you can think all the way back at 1/2 and how that felt.

I mean, its not like feeling like shit after losing doesnt occur to everyone, I remember when fnord lost a lot at 15/30, and it only turned out to be a 100 BB loss. It seemed like he took a long break after that one. The monetary value still makes you queezy.

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guitarhero14

02-14-2005, 06:27 AM

#19 (permalink)

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I think one of the worst parts about it, is the fact you dont know when it's going to stop. Hell, IF its gunna stop.

-guitar

jmrogers7

02-14-2005, 01:42 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Must be something in the water. Had my all-time worst day Saturday night. Dropped $500 at 3/6. Followed that up with another -$100 yesterday. By far my worst 2 days ever.

Feeling pretty down about my game right now. The worst part is that I had seen from my PokerTracker stats that I had been starting to play a little looser than I wanted to be playing and had been spewing away some chips. I had set out Saturday to fix that leak and really tightened it up and felt good about my play. Just happened that everytime I had a hand it ended up being 2nd best or getting sucked out on.

And forget about me playing KK right now. Discounting 2 hands that I took the blinds raising pre-flop, I have won with KK 1 out of the last 9 times that I have had it and seen a flop.

Talk about variance hitting me smack-dab between the eyes.

"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun

Zinnsoldaten

02-14-2005, 04:30 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Weird, I dropped about 50BB:s @ 3/6 the first hours of my Saturday session. Ended up +10BB:s, but it was hard work. Worked very much on my table selection and moving on fast when the game went slow.

What Shadows We Are, And What Shadows We Pursue

zuvvy

02-15-2005, 04:53 AM

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I am new here and don't mean to spam the board, but thought I would share my trials @ the Party 10/20 6-max, so far about 5K hands over 5 days.

Day 1: -3 BB
Day 2: +5 BB
Day 3: 2 session 1 -63 BB the next + 24 BB
Day 4: +67 BB
Day 5: -51 BB

I still don't quite have the game figured out though, but I expect the swings to stay about the same.

elipsesjeff

02-15-2005, 05:26 AM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zuvvy

I still don't quite have the game figured out though, but I expect the swings to stay about the same.

You might want to drop down a couple limits then.....

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zuvvy

02-15-2005, 05:30 AM

#24 (permalink)

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From the people I talk to, this seems normal, plus I crush the 5/10 for ~2 BB/ 100 and have a 500 BB roll for 10/20. I think that is just the game

I figure over the long haul my win rate will aproach 2 BB/100. What could dropping down possibly do for me?

elipsesjeff

02-15-2005, 06:05 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zuvvy

From the people I talk to, this seems normal, plus I crush the 5/10 for ~2 BB/ 100 and have a 500 BB roll for 10/20. I think that is just the game

I figure over the long haul my win rate will aproach 2 BB/100. What could dropping down possibly do for me?

Well, if you havent figured out the game real well then drop down until you know it. It might get expensive to learn at so high level, regardless of your BR.

And a 2 BB/100 win rate isnt that golden for online play.

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ChezJ

02-15-2005, 06:44 AM

#26 (permalink)

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there must have been a quantum singularity in the vicinity of the earth last week because the laws of probability were totally out of whack at every single table i played, online and home games included. party and UB both served me up the worst beats i ever saw. but also blessed me with the most phenomenal suckouts i've ever prosecuted upon other players. i cannot explain it... i am as logic-driven as a vulcan, but this was downright spooky. i saw this idiot online play every single hand and win almost +$200 at a $1/$2 table. that is way outside anybody's expected variance, and HE was the table fish! he started catching AA/KK/AK/KQs/KJ on every hand and scooped literally 7 pots in a row at a full table, including 5 kill pots! this was one day after i played a home game of $1/$2 where a maniac on my left raised every single hand preflop including 93o and won maybe 50% of all hands, including literally 9 out of 10 kill pots. he cashed out +$350!?! i had very bad variance in my bankroll, but through sheer force of will and discipline was able to pull myself out of several big holes and net a profit for the week. it reminded me of my experience playing $3/$6 (full kill) in arizona, where i immediately lost $500 before finally catching cards and winning it all back. so yes guys, a 50BB variance is definitely within the realm of expectation when you change limits, or even when you don't. it just always seems to strike you on the very first day you move up!!

ChezJ

ChezJ

02-15-2005, 07:02 AM

#27 (permalink)

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oh yeah i forgot to mention playing $1/$2 on UB thursday night and seeing AA literally 9 times in 30-45 min. one guy got it TWICE in a row(!), then got it AGAIN on the fourth hand(!!), then AGAIN about 20 minutes later(!!!). in the meantime, this other guy also caught it 3 times, twice within the space of maybe 3-4 hands. i got it once and so did another guy.

holy crapola! i wish UB saved hand histories. that was just out of control.

ChezJ

elipsesjeff

02-15-2005, 07:10 AM

#28 (permalink)

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Rigged.

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