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Shark Bait
Old 04-18-2005, 07:35 AM     Post subject: This isn't working #1 (permalink)  
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I know everyone says you need many thousands of hands into poker tracker before you can accurately say how things are going, but I'm doing very poorly. I've tried my best to listen to advice on this site, but I rarely leave a session ahead. Here's some stats after 1507 hands:

BB/100: (14.25)
VP$IP: 21.08%
saw flop all hands: 33.31%
saw flop not a blind: 21.83%
won when saw flop: 19.89%
raised preflop: 5.48%
went to showdown: 34.80%
won at showdown: 35.71%

I'm not sure I see anything dramatically wrong with these numbers. I try to only play good cards, and then bet/raise when I get anything. Whenever I hit something, everyone either folds, or they call me to the river and get the card they need and beat me. I've had worse luck at NL, so I think I'll stick with limit, but I'm wondering if anyone has any advice to help me turn things around.
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Room
Old 04-18-2005, 11:12 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You are definately showing down 2nd best hands WAY too much (won at showdown: 35.71%). You are hardly raising preflop. Raise more. What limit are you playing? If I had a guess, you are playing fairly predictably and probably on the passive side. Mix up your play a little. Do you have any agression numbers?
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Greedo017
Old 04-18-2005, 01:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 i am stupid
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Old 04-18-2005, 02:08 PM #4 (permalink)  
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(14) means negative 14

preflop raising is far too low. aim for 8 or 9. as you move up limits it should go up as well.

other than that we need more hands.
 
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Rondavu
Old 04-18-2005, 02:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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As for showing down second best hand, that's a major weakness. It seems your instincts are lacking. You need to learn how to read the board better. Maybe your paying too much attention to your own hand, and not the board and action from other players. You must be calling down a lot. You can tell that's wrong when you get that sinking feeling as your doing it. Learn to fold. Learn to accept that sometimes you'll have the best hand albeit weak, and still fold it. Experience will allow you to win with marginal holdings by use of your reads later on. For now tighten up and fold a lot.

And for god sakes, raise good hands preflop. Stop letting garbage beat you. It just isn't right.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Old 04-18-2005, 03:11 PM #6 (permalink)  
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actually, even with 1500 hands your win @ sd is far too low. 1500 hands should be enough.

however, your wtsd 35% is normal, which is odd.

i have a feeling you're calling down the right frequency, but like others have mentioned, calling down the wrong hands.

post some hands.
 
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Nehmer
Old 04-18-2005, 03:35 PM #7 (permalink)  
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VPIP is definately too high and should be below 20(probably between 15-18 depending on personal play style).

Preflop raise is way too low. I'm guessing you aren't taking enough advantage of positional raises preflop.

Won at showdown is way too low, but could be just a problem of a bad run of river cards(this must be at least partially true anyway with the very low BB/100).

I don't understand how you saw the flop more often while not a blind than you put money in the pot overall....Doesn't make any sense because everytime you see a flop while not a blind, you have to put money in the pot....Sure your numbers are right?
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Old 04-18-2005, 03:41 PM #8 (permalink)  
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VPIP includes all the SB completes, not a blind excludes those.

21% is not too high for 0.5/1, which is what i think he's playing right now.
 
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Shark Bait
Old 04-18-2005, 03:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
As for showing down second best hand, that's a major weakness. It seems your instincts are lacking. You need to learn how to read the board better. Maybe your paying too much attention to your own hand, and not the board and action from other players. You must be calling down a lot. You can tell that's wrong when you get that sinking feeling as your doing it. Learn to fold. Learn to accept that sometimes you'll have the best hand albeit weak, and still fold it. Experience will allow you to win with marginal holdings by use of your reads later on. For now tighten up and fold a lot.
I can relate to that. There are several hands in there where someone who had been passive preflop and flop, all of a sudden goes wild on the turn. And a lot of times it's almost obvious what hand they've made considering the board...but I refuse to believe them. I put them on a hand that beats me but keep on playing. For some reason I never believe they have it...but then they usually do.

I believe my biggest problem is not winning the big pots. Usually when I get 4 to the nut flush I will bet/raise to the river. When I get it, it's often a small pot, and when I don't the other people start betting as well and I feel like I either have to fold, or call with ace high. Same goes for open ended straight draws. Should I be playing these draws so agressively?

my PFR% used to be about 7.5% but now it has gone down some as I've added more hands. Probably a result of consistant losing with AA, KK and my most over rated cards ever, KQo.
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Nehmer
Old 04-18-2005, 03:51 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
VPIP includes all the SB completes, not a blind excludes those.
I think that just adds to my point. Isn't VPIP essentially....

VPIP = Saw Flop Not a Blind + SB completes + called raise from SB or BB?

So, VPIP can't be less than Saw Flop Not a Blind? Unless I'm missing something really easy as to how this could happen? The only thing I can think of that would explain this is if he often times doesn't play a full time around the table, so he has to post while not a blind a large amount of the time....

Edit: I have thought about this some more and since the Saw Flop Not a Blind and SB completes, called raise from SB or BB numbers will be weighted based on the fact you play more hands from not a blind, the only way this is possible is if your VPIP is higher from not a blind than it is from in the blind. This means that he is essentially calling in a larger percentage of the time while not a blind than he is completing his SB or protecting his BB. I think this could potentially be a big problem with his game that will not be easily seen based only on VPIP numbers. I would strongly suggest that you need to lower that seen flop from not in blind number somewhat significantly and maybe post your VPIP from SB number for us to analyze(it might already be fine).
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Rondavu
Old 04-18-2005, 04:15 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark Bait
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
As for showing down second best hand, that's a major weakness. It seems your instincts are lacking. You need to learn how to read the board better. Maybe your paying too much attention to your own hand, and not the board and action from other players. You must be calling down a lot. You can tell that's wrong when you get that sinking feeling as your doing it. Learn to fold. Learn to accept that sometimes you'll have the best hand albeit weak, and still fold it. Experience will allow you to win with marginal holdings by use of your reads later on. For now tighten up and fold a lot.
I can relate to that. There are several hands in there where someone who had been passive preflop and flop, all of a sudden goes wild on the turn. And a lot of times it's almost obvious what hand they've made considering the board...but I refuse to believe them. I put them on a hand that beats me but keep on playing. For some reason I never believe they have it...but then they usually do.

I believe my biggest problem is not winning the big pots. Usually when I get 4 to the nut flush I will bet/raise to the river. When I get it, it's often a small pot, and when I don't the other people start betting as well and I feel like I either have to fold, or call with ace high. Same goes for open ended straight draws. Should I be playing these draws so agressively?

my PFR% used to be about 7.5% but now it has gone down some as I've added more hands. Probably a result of consistant losing with AA, KK and my most over rated cards ever, KQo.
The "I don't believe you syndrome" as I call it stems from a fear of being bluffed. It's a pride thing man. You fear being outplayed, so you call down trying to catch someone being tricky. Truth is they were usually raising because their hand improved. The way I got myself out of this cycle was by telling myself I would believe the aggression unless I can obviously tag the person raising as someone who is overaggressive and tries to steal. Give people credit for a good hand and fold. Don't fear that by folding, people will think your weak and start trying to bluff you out more. That will recycle you into call down mode out of fear of being bluffed again. You don't want to be there.

It's simple... fold if your opponents let you know your beat by their raise on 4th and 5th streets. They're telling you to fold, so do it. Worry about calling tricky players down later on when your game improves.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Old 04-18-2005, 04:18 PM #12 (permalink)  
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now i'm really confused....nehmer i think you're right
 
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pokerfanatic
Old 04-19-2005, 06:36 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Well I’m sitting at just about 1400 hands in .5/1 which I know some of my stats are off mainly because I was bonus whoring and playing extremely tight getting used to the limit, I also muck a few hands that I have been told were a bad fold, example my AA hand I posted last week…

Total hands: 1386
VP$IP: 15.66 (to low, part of bonus whoring and new limit)
VP$IPSB: 30.34
BB/100: 4.99
W$@SD%: 55.77 (this sounds really high but also relates to the tight playing)
PFR%: 8.51
Aggression Factor: 3.14

So I think I’m in the right areas in most places exception the places I commented to the side on... hope that helps you kind of gauge a little…
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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Fnord
Old 04-19-2005, 06:38 AM #14 (permalink)  
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There is a really simple answer to this...

Shark Bait is running bad
pokerfanatic01 is running good
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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StinkyBeaver
Old 04-20-2005, 06:11 AM #15 (permalink)  
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No doubt this is a combination of things. First of all I'm very sure that Shark bait are calling down with second best hand way too often. But I also beleive what Fnord posted could be very true indeed.

As for my own last 1000 hands I've been taking a downswing close to 80BB. Here I've also been calling down with second best hand a bit too often, and I'm really missing out on the big multiway pots, when I fail to draw to my OESD and fireflush. I've also been struggling with my overapirs not holding up either.

Add the things above and you'll see that this will take out a lot of your winnigs especially at Low limit when you are more likely to get your AA and KK busted simply because every flop is seen by five or more players.

I'm not sure but I hope the things above is very common when facing a downswing..???

Keep your potodds/implied odds in your favor and don't call down every time you hold TPTK if you are facing a lot of raises. Then it should even out over time.
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Trikflow77
Old 04-20-2005, 07:51 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
VP$IP: 15.66 (to low, part of bonus whoring and new limit)
Explain why this is too low? Mine is almost the same, sometimes even lower, and I am crushing .5/1 all the way up to 5/10 now.
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Shark Bait
Old 04-20-2005, 10:22 AM #17 (permalink)  
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OK I started playing a lot more by the pot odds rules (just kind of guestimating, since I don't know the exact odds) But if the pot is 2 BB and I'm on a decent draw, I don't even bother trying. I've known about using pot odds for some time, but I've never really applied them as much as I am now. previously, any draw was an instant call or raise...now I think about if it's worth a small pot.

I'm sure a lot of this is a result of luck (I did get rockets twice in an hour...and they actually won for a change) but I ended a session up more than ever before. My average BB/100 has increased to "only" a loss of 11.24

btw, The best thing I've learned from this site is playing within my bankroll. These downswings, or bad playing, or whatever you want to call them, would probably have eaten my whole bankroll if I was not managing it as well as this site has taught me.

I do have another question...Again...I know my hands played is much too small, but when I sort by worst hands in poker tracker (worst BB/hand) I'm seeing some pretty nice starting cards. Here are the top 5 for me:

1. QJs
2. AQs
3. KQo
4. T6s
5. KJs

I guess I'm asking for advice on how to play these decent hands. Perhaps I'm over-valuating them and I shouldn't be raising preflop with some of these? I'll chalk most of this up to variance, but NOT KQo. I've gotten that one 15 times, and won with it twice. Is this considered a bad starting hand? Should I just run when I see it?
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Rondavu
Old 04-20-2005, 01:40 PM #18 (permalink)  
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If your at a loose table, and your getting KQo often in early position, then your going to lose with it mostly. If your at a tight table, and you get it in late position, then your going to win with it mostly. What kind of hands are beating it? Are you getting beaten by AQ and AK, or are you getting beaten by someone who stuck around for a raise with 22 and caught a set?

The answers to these questions will tell you why this hand keeps losing. KQo is a borderline group 3 hand. If I were to guess why it's losing for you, it would probably be that your not raising it preflop. It's almost a hand you want to limp in with, but not quite. Raise this. Cold calling a raise is another matter all together.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Old 04-20-2005, 03:19 PM #19 (permalink)  
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why is T6s in your list?
 
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Rondavu
Old 04-20-2005, 06:21 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
why is T6s in your list?
Because it's sooted
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Shark Bait
Old 04-20-2005, 08:51 PM #21 (permalink)  
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I would just ignore the T6s because I only got it 4 times. It's on the list because I got it on the big blind, and flopped trip 10's, but so did someone else.
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Demiparadigm
Old 04-20-2005, 11:07 PM #22 (permalink)  
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limp KQo in a loose passive game, raise in a tight agressive game, fold if it is raised to you.

Quit cold calling raises with all of these hands.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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lonnie
Old 04-20-2005, 11:10 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Quit cold calling raises with all of these hands.
Amen! You must not limp preflop ever!!!!

OK, maybe sometimes in LP and you have 99 or something. But with big paint raise or fold man!
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Shark Bait
Old 04-22-2005, 10:28 PM #24 (permalink)  
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ok I started playing a little better...stopped chasing draws in small pots, and played agressively against weak players...you'd be surprised how many people will fold on the river in micro limit no foldem holdem when you're the one that bet every round. Well...at least I was surprised. Here are my updated stats after 2,767 hands:

BB/100: ++++++++3.49
VP$IP: 19.48%
saw flop all hands: 32.67%
saw flop not a blind: 21.06%
won when saw flop: 22.68%
raised preflop: 6.69%
went to showdown: 34.73%
won at showdown: 42.68%

All of these numbers seem to have moved in the right direction, but I'm not sure about VP$IP...that went down. What's a good place for that to be? I think I've read around 20, but I'm not sure. Poker tracker rates me as Tight-Aggressive/Passive.

So do you think I'm ready to deposit some more money and move up to a little higher limit? I've been playing really low limits just to get a feel for how I want to play. With my current balance I'm not able to play anything higher, but I'm not making enough for it to be worth my time at these low limits either. btw, I'm talking about playing 25/50 cent or $0.50/$1...I'm not planning on jumping right into $5/$10
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Fnord
Old 04-22-2005, 10:31 PM #25 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark Bait
All of these numbers seem to have moved in the right direction, but I'm not sure about VP$IP...that went down. What's a good place for that to be? I think I've read around 20, but I'm not sure. Poker Tracker rates me as Tight-Aggressive/Passive.
At 3/6 I'm at around 15% VP$IP 10% PFR. Whenever I've tried to mix in more hands it hasn't gone too well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Trikflow77
Old 04-22-2005, 10:45 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Quote:
At 3/6 I'm at around 15% VP$IP 10% PFR. Whenever I've tried to mix in more hands it hasn't gone too well.
Same for me, when I tried to bump up my VPIP I ended up losing more, but I didnt try it for long. It is hard to mix in some hands in an TAggy game because we punish limpers.
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Nehmer
Old 04-22-2005, 10:52 PM #27 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
At 3/6 I'm at around 15% VP$IP 10% PFR. Whenever I've tried to mix in more hands it hasn't gone too well.
I'm the exact opposite, at 3/6 my VPIP is around 19% and I occasionally try to play tighter and lower it to around 16-17% and it never goes well when I try. I go from being a winning player to a barely above break-even player everytime. I think people are just comfortable playing different styles and it's tough to switch those styles and keep playing as good.
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Fnord
Old 04-22-2005, 11:05 PM #28 (permalink)  
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PM me, I'd love to swap PT databases.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 04-23-2005, 06:22 AM #29 (permalink)  
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Just to show you how silly these sample sizes are...

1,612 hands of 3/6
15.63% VP$IP
10.42% PFR
29.01% WtSD
65.96% W$@SD
net +$775.75
$183 paid in rake
8.02BB/100

Me play g00t.

ATs 4x net -$54.00 -2.25BB/100 (I guess I suck playing this hand)
JJ 7x net -$12 -0.29BB/100 (taking it too far?)
AA 10x net +$72.50 for only 1.21 (gotta work on this, huh?)

lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 04-24-2005, 12:01 AM #30 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Just to show you how silly these sample sizes are...

1,612 hands of 3/6
15.63% VP$IP
10.42% PFR
29.01% WtSD
65.96% W$@SD
net +$775.75
$183 paid in rake
8.02BB/100

Me play g00t.

ATs 4x net -$54.00 -2.25BB/100 (I guess I suck playing this hand)
JJ 7x net -$12 -0.29BB/100 (taking it too far?)
AA 10x net +$72.50 for only 1.21 (gotta work on this, huh?)

lol
Damn Fnord, I do miss that lime green suit, and the shades too lol

Stats above are great, but even with the small sample size you think you may have left some $$ on the table with 65W$@SD. ?
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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Fnord
Old 04-24-2005, 01:32 AM #31 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
Stats above are great, but even with the small sample size you think you may have left some $$ on the table with 65W$@SD. ?
Do you call either of these hands down?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=10478
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 04-24-2005, 02:21 AM #32 (permalink)  
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No I wouldn't

It was just a question Fnord. If the answer is no, then fine.

I just think that for most players, 65W$@SD would be a sign that they could have called a few more.

It wasn't a criticism -- Sorry I asked
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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Fnord
Old 04-24-2005, 02:29 AM #33 (permalink)  
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When running good W$@SD tends to be one of the stats that tends to spike.

Most winning players run about 55% long term. Although a couple really good players claim they run 60%.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ArcticKnight
Old 04-24-2005, 03:28 AM #34 (permalink)  
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Thanks

But I do dearly miss the lime green suit.....
Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........
 
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pokerfanatic
Old 04-24-2005, 03:38 AM #35 (permalink)  
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Yup I was defiantly on a good run because now I’m on a worse run then I have come across, my bb/100 has dropped to 0.46/100 over 2800 hands, bye bye profit...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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Shark Bait
Old 05-01-2005, 02:41 AM #36 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 481
Shark Bait
Well...here I am...halfway to not long term. 5,055 hands. Since I've completely turned this around I will be depositing more money and moving up to a little higher limits. I'll let you know how it goes.

BB/100: 6.74
VP$IP: 17.86
saw flop all hands: 31.89%
saw flop not a blind: 19.08%
won when saw flop: 23.39%
raised preflop: 6.59%
went to showdown: 33.62%
won at showdown: 44.83%
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pokerfanatic
Old 05-01-2005, 02:52 AM #37 (permalink)  
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4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
pokerfanatic
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I hit a wicked up swing then into another wicked down swing, so my numbers are probably pretty far off from normal at this point...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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Nehmer
Old 05-01-2005, 04:09 AM #38 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
Nehmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shark Bait
Well...here I am...halfway to not long term. 5,055 hands. Since I've completely turned this around I will be depositing more money and moving up to a little higher limits. I'll let you know how it goes.

BB/100: 6.74
VP$IP: 17.86
saw flop all hands: 31.89%
saw flop not a blind: 19.08%
won when saw flop: 23.39%
raised preflop: 6.59%
went to showdown: 33.62%
won at showdown: 44.83%
Are you using Poker Tracker to get these numbers? They really make absolutely no sense at all. My VP$IP is actually slightly higher than yours sitting at 18.46 right now, but my saw flop all hands is only 21.54% and my saw flop not a blind is a tiny 13.11%. I don't understand how you could possibly have a lower VP$IP than me, but see significantly more flops including a HUGE number from not a blind. Also, you have only won money at showdown 44.83% of the time, but are winning 6.74 BB/100??? That almost doesn't even seem like it would be possible....Especially considering your won money when saw flop is extremely small(probably about 10% lower than it should be)....If these numbers are the correct numbers you are getting from Poker Tracker, I'd like to see a whole hand history of one of your sessions sometime, because you are doing something extremely wierd to get those numbers.
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