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implied odds, setmining, and family pots
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LawDude
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10-15-2009, 10:59 PM
Post subject: implied odds, setmining, and family pots
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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I wanted to write about a scenario that I see a lot in very fishy games (though it can theoretically happen even in tight games if a lot of players have suited connectors or small pocket pairs). It is the situation where you have odds to continue setmining to the turn.
Here's an example from last night at Hustler. Hero is on the button with 4s4c.
UTG and UTG+1 call, MP1 raises, and all 8 players call MP1's raise.
Flop is J72 rainbow. Checks to MP1, who bets. 3 players call. What does Hero do?
Well, we aren't getting rid of anybody, and our hand stinks. Middle pair or better beats us and there's no straight or flush draw. Basically, we have 2 outs to win this hand, and they are most likely good.
Here's the thing, though. Normally, if you are engaged in pure setmining and you don't hit your set, you fold on the flop. Not here, though. The players put 18 small bets in pre-flop. 4 more bets came in on the flop. That's 22 small bets. Your odds of turning a flop, hitting the 2 outer, are 22.5 to 1. You have the pot odds to call. (Indeed, sometimes this call will even get you to the river if the turn is checked around, in which case you would only need about 11 to 1. Don't count on this though!)
Further, you don't even need 22 small bets in the pot to call this one. In this situation you often have good implied odds as well. If the pre-flop raiser has a made hand or likes his AK, he may stick around for a showdown. Plus, the chances of someone having SOMETHING decent to call you down with in this type of multiway pot is quite high. So even if you get up to 17 or 18 small bets, you are probably going to get to 22 by the river.
So in the case of a multi-way pot that was raised pre-flop, calculate your pot and implied odds before folding your small pocket pair after missing the flop. (Indeed, in situations where the pre-flop action was 3-bet or capped, you don't even need as many people in the pot to give you the right odds to call. But take into account the probability that there may be a raise on the flop after you act!)
P.S.: I did not turn a set. Actually someone else won the hand with a set of 2's. But it was a correct call to see the turn.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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i will usually look at my odds, too. however, i find a small rule that i will cheat on from time to time.
i will peel a flop getting 10:1 if my set card does not complete the flush simultaneously.
flop of 8c Jc 4h. if i hold TcTd, i will peel getting 10:1, a common scenario in passive LHE games.
but, i dont peel a turn card.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Stick to the math in those hands. Definitely long-run play.
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