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if you cap every betting round...fold to river bet?

  
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 11-14-2004, 06:39 AM     Post subject: if you cap every betting round...fold to river bet? #1 (permalink)  
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i think this was very interesting. this hand was contested 3 way, i wasn't part of it. but basically, i'm pretty sure one of them had AKs. preflop was capped. the flop gives them the flush draw. they cap, while the other 2 people cap with him. turn, same thing.

the river comes and doesn't complete the flush, no A or K on the board. now the pot is about 40BB now. you have nothing except A high. you are against 2 opponents that likely have at least 2 pair or a set. you are second to act, and you are bet into. do you call or fold?

you are getting 40 to 1 to call, but you almost know you'll lose because both of them wouldn't cap all streets with crap. but still, you only need to win roughly 2% of the time in all situations like this to be profitable...

the guy folded. would you make the crying call? or fold because you're pretty much 99.9% sure you're beaten?
 
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allLiving
Old 11-14-2004, 07:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Call as an information gain.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 11-14-2004, 07:54 AM #3 (permalink)  
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2 other people are still in the hand. Won't information be gained and you'd still save a big bet? It seems to me like you should fold if you know you're beat. Save the 2 bucks

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koolmoe
Old 11-15-2004, 05:32 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Fold since you're not closing the action. Sounds like it might be going multiple bets on the river.

If you close the action, call.
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Underdog72
Old 11-15-2004, 08:00 AM #5 (permalink)  
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This reminds me of a hand I played.

NL Hold'em Trny:7201991 Level:1 Blinds (10/15) - Monday, November 15, 03:20:27 EDT 2004
Table $500 Daily FreeRoll(134373) Table #29 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Dakota80 ( $3740 )
Seat 2: SaNDMaN1325 ( $440 )
Seat 3: matt2666 ( $3120 )
Seat 4: dstylesmi ( $2790 )
Seat 5: DAHUBBY ( $620 )
Seat 6: Cbeast420 ( $560 )
Seat 8: fetish613 ( $885 )
Seat 9: truexgrinder ( $975 )
Seat 10: tony_521 ( $975 )
Seat 7: pokerv1 ( $3160 )
Trny:7201991 Level:1
Blinds (10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to matt2666 [ Kd Ah ]
dstylesmi folds.
DAHUBBY folds.
Cbeast420 folds.
pokerv1 calls [15].
fetish613 calls [15].
truexgrinder folds.
tony_521 folds.
Dakota80 calls [15].
SaNDMaN1325 folds.
matt2666 raises [185].
pokerv1 calls [185].
fetish613 calls [185].
Dakota80 raises [585].
matt2666 calls [400].
pokerv1 calls [400].
fetish613 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 5s, 2d ]
matt2666 checks.
pokerv1 bets [200].
Dakota80 calls [200].
matt2666 calls [200].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8d ]
matt2666 checks.
pokerv1 bets [250].
Dakota80 calls [250].
matt2666 calls [250].
** Dealing River ** [ 6c ]
matt2666 checks.
Cbeast420: A on river could be fun, lol
pokerv1 bets [400].
Dakota80 calls [400].
matt2666 folds.
pokerv1 shows [ Kc, 7c ] a pair of sixes.
Dakota80 shows [ 7s, As ] a pair of sixes.
Dakota80 wins 4160 chips from the main pot with a pair of sixes with ace kicker.

Wouldn't happen in a real game, but I'm still slightly tilted I folded to those fishes.
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