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I'd like to solicit some help understanding my PT stats.

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NixonFanClub

09-18-2007, 09:14 PM Post subject: I'd like to solicit some help understanding my PT stats.

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

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Hey everyone, I'm a relative newbie who registered long time ago, but due to RL constraints, didn't have the time to put into it that I have now.

Anyways, I've been trying to get "back on the wagon", and I've spent some time (and money, sadly

) trying to get the hang of 6 max hold'em again.

So, after 1910 hands, I'm presently down $739 at 3/6. That's -6.45BB/100 over a pretty good clip, so I'd like to do some things about it.

First of all, if at all possible I'd love it if there was someone would be willing to analyze my database (is that possible?) and see if I missed anything.

For starters, here's what I noticed:

#1> The game rates me as a SLAP (semi loose aggressive / passive). My VP$IP is 22.93%, which seems in the range that Hyper's 6 max guide says is ok. My aggression index is 1.91, which seem close to optimal, but it breaks down like so:

flop: 2.30
turn: 2.14
river: 1.11(!)

So, I look through the rest of the tabs for any big red negative number, and find that I've lots about $900 going to the showdown with hands that wind up being no pair and 1 pair.

No Pair: 16 showdowns, 3 wins, 18.75% $won at showdown, -222.00, 9.25% of my showdowns.

1 pair: 72 showdowns, 24 wins, 31.94% $won, -655.00, 42.20% of my showdowns.

So, it's obvious I'm doing something tragically wrong here.. but how do I figure out what? Hyper's guide talks a lot about ace high being a decent hand heads up. But I must be overplaying it, calling too much or what not. Those percentages should be a lot higher even with those weaker hands, right?

Thoughts?

NFC.

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euphoricism

09-18-2007, 10:50 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

play 10x more hands and come talk to us. 2k hands is a day for many of us.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

euphoricism

09-18-2007, 10:58 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Your place or my place

Posts: 3,610

Let me expland. You got your ass royally handed to you over a 2k hand sample. By itself, that doesnt mean much. We've all had that happen. Some of us lots of times. Its basically a statistical gaurentee that it will happen.

So its impossible to tell if its your fault from that post alone.

If you feel uncomfortable about your losses, drop down in stakes. If not, keep rolling and post again when you get to around 10k hands, but even then we wont be able to say much.

<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!

Fnord

09-19-2007, 01:38 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Drop down to 2/4.

It doesn't sound like you're a winning 3/6 player.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

NixonFanClub

09-19-2007, 02:15 AM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

So which is it? "We can't tell anything" or "we can tell that you aren't a winning 3/6 player"? Precisely one of these must be wrong.

Just to clarify, I am not uncomfortable about the losses. I do not want to drop limits because I don't want to waste my time doing this if I can't at least do it at the 3/6 level. I need to learn.

Anyways, I'll assume that the person who put "Snarky Fuck" as his location is the one being fatuous, and the person who gave me constructive feedback on what to actually do is the one being sincere. If 20k results is a good sample size, thank you for letting me know that. However, if you really can't tell me much, I guess I'll have to look elsewhere to figure out how to decipher these myriad stats, what ranges should be for good values, etc. etc. Is there an FAQ that I just missed somewhere? I couldn't even find a 6max limit forum here.

Anyways, thanks for your time Euphoricism, it's much appreciated.

Fnord

09-19-2007, 02:53 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

So which is it? "We can't tell anything" or "we can tell that you aren't a winning 3/6 player"? Precisely one of these must be wrong.

I'm usually serious.

2/4 has a more forgiving rake structure, your downswing suggests that things aren't going well for you and you don't sound confident in your game and edge over the other players. Finally, short-handed poker isn't as much about stats as full-ring is. It's much more driven by the other factors.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

NixonFanClub

09-19-2007, 03:14 AM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

So which is it? "We can't tell anything" or "we can tell that you aren't a winning 3/6 player"? Precisely one of these must be wrong.

I'm confident in my ability to play poker, don't get me wrong. But I have played so very little 6 max that I simply don't have enough of a history to make this any kind of 'swing', ya know what I mean?

EDIT to put in rest of post: How is the 2/4 structure more forgiving than 3/6? At Stars, they are the exact same. Is it because the 3rd dollar comes out at $70 and you hit that pot size much more in 3/6 than 2/4?

|~|ypermegachi

09-19-2007, 03:24 AM

#8 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

I'm confident in my ability to play poker.

i don't care who you are, the moment you think you're good is the moment you stop growing as a player. you're not good. none of us are. even players at $100/200 limit suck. you just have to suck less.

you say your VPIP is 23%. what's your PFR? W$WSF? W$@SD?

like others mentioned, 2k hands is nothing. 10k is nothing. 100k we can sort of see if you're winning or not. if you want to be in the 99% confidence interval you need well almost a million hands, not joking.

you'll grow as a player much faster and more efficient by focusing on individual hands than looking at stats.

DrivingDog

09-19-2007, 03:32 AM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

So which is it? "We can't tell anything" or "we can tell that you aren't a winning 3/6 player"?

Statistically, a break-even 0BB/100 player with a standard deviation of 17 BB/100 will experience a 6.5 BB downswing over 2k hands about 1 in 25 times and a +1BB player will experience such a downswing about 1 in 40 times (see the last post here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-60290.htm). While it's possible it's just a bad run of cards, it seems more likely you're currently not a winning player at this limit. So, until you improve your game my advice is to stop throwing your money away and get experience playing at a limit that you can win at, then work your way up from there. Or if you don't want to do that, then be prepared to work the streets to support your game like Fnord did.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

NixonFanClub

09-19-2007, 03:51 AM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

I'm confident in my ability to play poker.

i don't care who you are, the moment you think you're good is the moment you stop growing as a player. you're not good. none of us are.

Okay, is there some cultural thing to this forum that I'm not getting? One guy tells me I am showing I have no confidence, I respond by saying I have confidence, and then another guy comes out and tells me I have no business having confidence ever in my whole life. *boggle*

Quote:

even players at $100/200 limit suck. you just have to suck less.

.

Okay, how's this? I have lots of experience playing poker. I am a lifetime winning player. I have a history of 4 and 5 digit cashes in tourneys with 3 digit buy-ins. Not great, but not horrible. I was taunted yesterday online because I "only" had a 125% ROI in MTTs on one poker site, 9k in cashes for 4k in buy-ins. However, I thought it was arrogant of me to lead off this way with my accomplishments as if they mean something. However, I know full well that this does NOT mean that I ever need to stop learning.. why would I be here if I felt I never needed to learn anything?

Another cultural booboo on my part I s'pose.

I understand the traditional thought process for improving at poker. Using a tool like PokerTracker is a little confusing and daunting with all these acronyms, especially if it doesn't provide "you should be here" guidelines. Hence me asking for help in making sense of it all.

Quote:

you say your VPIP is 23%. what's your PFR? W$WSF? W$@SD?

Well, factoring in my play today, my PFR was 14.3%, W$WSF was 38.66% and W$@SD was 49.44%.

DrivingDog

09-19-2007, 03:54 AM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

. 100k we can sort of see if you're winning or not. if you want to be in the 99% confidence interval you need well almost a million hands, not joking.

Not with an effect size this large (-6.5BB/100). Unless his variance is a lot greater than normal, he's already cracked the 95% CI (just in the wrong direction). 95% CI is enough for JAMA and it's enough for me too.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

daven

09-19-2007, 03:59 AM

#12 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,804

hey, the culture here is all good. Ridicule (sometimes) and support (almost always) in unequal measure. What everyone is saying about sample size is true, but a suggestion nonetheless. Why not post a screen shot of the general tab from poker tracker, and the more detail section. It may show something obvious? or may not.. who knows?!?

another suggestion. Look over the hands you have played. The big wins, the big losses, the difficult flops. Think about how you played them. Did you play them well? if you're not sure, then post the hand histories here with your thoughts. Expect to be told you suck, and also expect to be told you rock. And almost always you will be told why the poster thinks so...

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

NixonFanClub

09-19-2007, 04:01 AM

#13 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

So which is it? "We can't tell anything" or "we can tell that you aren't a winning 3/6 player"?

Statistically, a break-even 0BB/100 player with a standard deviation of 17 BB/100 will experience a 6.5 BB downswing over 2k hands about 1 in 25 times and a +1BB player will experience such a downswing about 1 in 40 times. While it's possible it's just a bad run of cards, it seems more likely you're currently not a winning player at this limit. So, until you improve your game my advice is to stop throwing your money away and get experience playing at a limit that you can win at, then work your way up from there. Or if you don't want to do that, then be prepared to work the streets to support your game like Fnord did.

See, this is exactly the kind of thing I was hoping to find in response. Except for Fnord walking the streets. No one needs to think of that. Anyways - thank you very much!

daven

09-19-2007, 04:06 AM

#14 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,804

Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

Well, factoring in my play today, my PFR was 14.3%, W$WSF was 38.66% and W$@SD was 49.44%.

Your W$@SD is low, could be that you are going to showdown with too many hands. Be prepared to fold hands on the big streets, don't chase draws without pot odds, etc. Oh, and when a draw misses, don't call a river bet just in case your ace high is still good (it's probably not...) guess you already know this though?

good luck!

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

|~|ypermegachi

09-19-2007, 04:16 AM

#15 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: emo-kid

Posts: 3,580

from your post it seemed like you were implying you are good at poker, rather than just saying you're confident. confident and being good are different things. i meant to attack the angle when you think you're so good there is no room for improvement.

from the extra numbers you posted, they don't look out of line. your W$@SD suggests you're running bad, but how bad is determined on how you played your winning (did you maximize?) and your losing (did you minimize?) hands.

DrivingDog

09-19-2007, 04:28 AM

#16 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

Expect to be told you suck, and also expect to be told you rock.

Well, maybe half of that is true lol.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

NixonFanClub

09-19-2007, 04:45 AM

#17 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Fair enough. All I meant to say was "I'm good enough to feel comfortable at trying to break into the game at 3/6". IBear in mind that I have minor attention issues and that if the stakes are too low, my learning will be stunted. So, I want to start at the lowest stakes that will still be meaningful to me.

Quote:

from the extra numbers you posted, they don't look out of line. your W$@SD suggests you're running bad, but how bad is determined on how you played your winning (did you maximize?) and your losing (did you minimize?) hands.

Oh, I'm sure I've played some hands bad. I'm going to go through the database to find some of the problems. But I noticed that in a lot of places, the phrase "don't use shorthanded play as an excuse to call to the river with anything." That already has made a big difference (as I type this, my rate is "up" to -4.24BB/100 after 2356 hands).

NixonFanClub

09-19-2007, 04:51 AM

#18 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

Expect to be told you suck, and also expect to be told you rock.

Well, maybe half of that is true lol.

"Expect to be told you suck, and also expect to be told you suck rocks"? ^.^

Jibalob

09-19-2007, 02:08 PM

#19 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Out of my roll

Posts: 512

Post a screenshot of your detailed PT stats - 2k hands should be enough to spot anything that is MAJORLY wrong but not much else.

Post some hand histories (without the results) up in the forum including your thought process for each street if you want some detailed analysis / constructive critisism because 2k hands just isnt enough for this.

PLEASE READ ULTIMATE BET THREAD IN "ONLINE POKER ROOMS" FORUM
Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]

Fnord

09-20-2007, 12:06 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NixonFanClub

EDIT to put in rest of post: How is the 2/4 structure more forgiving than 3/6? At Stars, they are the exact same. Is it because the 3rd dollar comes out at $70 and you hit that pot size much more in 3/6 than 2/4?

A lot of heads-up pots will go unraked or only get raked a buck.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

NixonFanClub

09-20-2007, 05:41 PM

#21 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 18

Wow, you guys weren't kidding about the swings in 6-max. Up to 3733 hands and now break-even (+$20.50) after rake.

One of the things I've done a lot more of is put the brakes on when I get bet-and-3-bet or check-raised on the turn. I'm going to post some of the more problematic hands (top pair or overpair on the turn) in a separate thread.

DrivingDog

09-20-2007, 07:34 PM

#22 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Sounds more like you started playing better than that you were on a bad swing...keep it up!

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Fnord

09-22-2007, 11:14 AM

#23 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Played some online 6 max today.

31% VP$IP, 23% PFR wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with 7

, A

.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Fnord raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T

, 5

, 2

(3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Fnord calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4

(2 players)
SB bets, Fnord calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A

(2 players)
SB bets, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Results in white below:
SB has Td Jh (one pair, tens).
Fnord has 7h Ad (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Fnord wins 8.50 BB.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with

.
3 folds, Fnord raises, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB)

(2 players)
SB checks, Fnord bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB)

(2 players)
SB checks, Fnord checks.

River: (3.50 BB)

(2 players)
SB bets, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

Results in white below:
SB has Jc Ks (high card, king).
Fnord has Ac 7d (high card, ace).
Outcome: Fnord wins 5.50 BB.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Fnord is UTG with

.
Fnord raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB)

(2 players)
BB checks, Fnord bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB)

(2 players)
BB checks, Fnord checks.

River: (3.25 BB)

(2 players)
BB bets, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

Results in white below:
BB has Qc Kd (high card, king).
Fnord has Ah Qh (high card, ace).
Outcome: Fnord wins 5.25 BB.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Fnord is MP with

.
1 fold, Fnord raises, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Fnord caps, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB)

(3 players)
Fnord bets, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Fnord folds, CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB)

(2 players)
CO checks, Button checks.

River: (9.25 BB)

(2 players)
CO bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Results in white below:
CO has 6c As (two pair, aces and sixes).
Button has Ad Jh (one pair, aces).
Outcome: CO wins 11.25 BB.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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