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dsaxton
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07-16-2008, 12:57 AM
Post subject: I think this is a bad bet, but I'm not sure.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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I didn't want to check this behind and lose to some baby flush he made by accident, so I decided to pot, knowing he can't have the nuts. Worth it? I really don't have much of a read, but he seemed semi-competent based on a small sample.
PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
UTG ($273.70)
MP ($60.85)
CO ($115.05)
Hero ($258.20)
SB ($212.15)
BB ($487.80)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 8 , A , Q, Q .
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, BB calls $6, UTG calls $6.
Flop: ($25) K, 6 , Q (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $18, BB calls $18, UTG folds.
Turn: ($61) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $58.05, BB calls $58.05.
River: ($177.10) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $174.1
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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I think the chance of him having a baby flush and folding on the river are very low.
I think the range of hands that may fit his play are:
1. Set of 6's, if he has that he may have made a baby flush by mistake, but if he called you on the flop and turn he will call the river too
2. KQxx, there are very few hands with KQ and 2 suited babies who will call a preflop raise, so if he made his flush it is probably Q high and he will call
3. Combo draw to a str8 - AJTx - in this case he made a T high or J high str8 and he will probably call
4. Naked flush draw, this is the only case he may also have a baby flush draw to spades
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Phantaroth
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 505
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Ya, definitely check behind here.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Yeah. I think this bet had something to do with the fact that I had just flopped top boat against quads on another table.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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I think the biggest problem is that it will be difficult for worse hands to call.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I think the biggest problem is that it will be difficult for worse hands to call.
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The bet is purely intended as a bluff. I was tilted and it's probably bad because it's such a small range I want him to fold.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I think the biggest problem is that it will be difficult for worse hands to call.
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And I don't think a baby backdoored flush is folding either.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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BigCityBanker
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Dublin
Posts: 10
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villian has played this ultra passively, he is prob just c/f a missed diamond draw. if he has a backed a baby flush then meh.
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