www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

I really hate my play here, need advice on dealing with odds

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

Knytestorme

03-29-2008, 11:22 PM Post subject: I really hate my play here, need advice on dealing with odds

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

Firstly, apologies for the hand history....seems the convertor still has issues with output from Poker Office.

The issue I ran into here was that on each street I had the odds telling me that I had the right price to call given the draws, eg the backdoor flush and gutshot draws on the flop, then the gutshot + flush draw on the turn. I felt the entire play was bad but from the time the second bet was put in preflop with the number of callers I couldn't see a way to let it go as my draws kept improving.

I know the consensus will probably be to lay it down pre, but going past that was there any point that looks plausible to let it go, or is it a case of once we're at that point we just follow the numbers?

PokerStars Game #16339044300: Holdem Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/03/29 - 14:28:31 (ET)
Table Gutemberga 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: vigtc ($10.75 in chips)
Seat 2: fmo01 ($31.35 in chips)
Seat 3: hada1334 ($28.45 in chips)
Seat 4: johndoo65 ($21.25 in chips)
Seat 5: ioannists ($9.80 in chips)
Seat 6: KnyteStorme ($39.20 in chips)
fmo01: posts small blind $0.25
hada1334: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KnyteStorme [Qh Th]
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
vigtc: calls $0.50
fmo01: raises $0.50 to $1
hada1334: calls $0.50
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
vigtc: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [9d 6h Ks]
fmo01: bets $0.50
hada1334: calls $0.50
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
vigtc: raises $0.50 to $1
fmo01: raises $0.50 to $1.50
hada1334: folds
johndoo65: calls $1
ioannists: calls $1
KnyteStorme: calls $1
vigtc: raises $0.50 to $2
Betting is capped
fmo01: calls $0.50
johndoo65: calls $0.50
ioannists: calls $0.50
KnyteStorme: calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [9d 6h Ks] [5h]
fmo01: bets $1
johndoo65: folds
ioannists: folds
KnyteStorme: calls $1
vigtc: raises $1 to $2
fmo01: raises $1 to $3
KnyteStorme: raises $1 to $4
Betting is capped
vigtc: calls $2
fmo01: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [9d 6h Ks 5h] [Jh]
fmo01: checks
KnyteStorme: bets $1
vigtc: calls $1
fmo01: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
KnyteStorme: shows [Qh Th] (a flush, Queen high)
vigtc: mucks hand
fmo01: mucks hand
KnyteStorme collected $31 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.50 | Rake $0.50
Board [9d 6h Ks 5h Jh]
Seat 1: vigtc (button) mucked [9c Kc]
Seat 2: fmo01 (small blind) mucked [Ah Ac]
Seat 3: hada1334 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: johndoo65 folded on the Turn
Seat 5: ioannists folded on the Turn
Seat 6: KnyteStorme showed [Qh Th] and won ($31) with a flush, Queen high

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

DrivingDog

03-29-2008, 11:50 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Preflop is fine. You're only calling one extra bet getting 10:1.

On the flop you call two cold getting 12:1 odds on your money. You have 4 outs to a straight + backdoor flush so maybe 5 outs total or 10-11% equity. So no problem there.

It's the turn where I think you made a mistake. I think you should be calling along, not raising here. You have two opponents, neither of whom is going to fold based on their play so far. They're certainly not BOTH going to fold. So you have to hit your hand to win. You have 12 outs to a straight or flush, or about 25% equity. You're putting in 33% of the bets that go in on the turn of which your share of the pot is 25%. In other words you're donating 33 - 25 = 8% of every bet you put in on the turn to your opponents.

Calling turn bets and raises would be correct because the pot is so big. Raising only makes sense if you have an equity edge - e.g., > 50% vs. one opponent or > 33% vs. two opponents, etc., or if there's a chance you can win without a showdown.

Also by jamming the turn you pretty much destroy your implied odds. Had you just called along quietly on the turn you might have gotten in a c/r on the river. By jamming the turn, you scare your opponents so much they probably wouldn't bet anything less than a set if you checked the river to them.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Knytestorme

03-29-2008, 11:59 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

Thanks or the quick reply Dog.

In regards to the turn raise, I'd say you're right there but my thinking was that given the action to then if I just called the 3-bet when it got to me I'd be seeing it capped after me so I may as well cap it myself. Given the maths there though (though I'll have to go back over when I'm awake hehehe...6 hour session so far, but up $250 on my return to the game), it seems calling the 2 bets and then waiting to see if it was capped behind me would be the right play since my equity investment would be lower if it were capped after I'd invested as opposed to me being the one to put the 4-bet in, correct?

KoRnholio

03-30-2008, 12:30 AM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

Capping the turn is bad. You have good, but not great, equity in the hand. You don't want to potentially push someone else out of the pot by capping, since they could help pay you off on the river if you hit.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DrivingDog

03-30-2008, 10:58 AM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knytestorme

You're equity investment is how many bets go in the pot, regardless of who bets and raises. Since you're clearly behind on the turn, you want to invest the least amount possible to see the river. You do that by checking and calling, not betting and raising.

For all you know, had you checked the turn, it would have got bet and raised behind you (and you would call two cold getting 7.5:1), and it might not get raised again. So you might have had to only invest two bets instead of four to see the river.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

04-01-2008, 03:59 AM

#6 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

The mistake that I sometimes make is that I'm willing to commit x bets on this street, so sometimes I put those bets in myself when I shouldn't. But I would have rather not put those bets in in the first place. So I should call in that situation.

This is the same thing. While it might have gotten capped anyway, why not see if it's not capped? You have nothing to lose by just calling.

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 09:07 AM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

All Other (Limit) Poker

I really hate my play here, need advice on dealing with odds

Play for FREE and practice your game at...