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I know I suck cuz I don't bet the river often enough but...

  
 
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chardrian
Old 05-26-2005, 12:33 AM     Post subject: I know I suck cuz I don't bet the river often enough but... #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7, 7.
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7, J, 6 (4 players)
SB bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) T (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Results in white below:
SB has As Ac (one pair, aces).
UTG+1 has Qs Qc (one pair, queens).
Hero has 7s 7d (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 15.50 BB.

Sure I put SB on KK or AA, but with all those callers on the flop, and the 89 and 2 clubs beating me on the turn, was it that chickenshit to check the river here?
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Demiparadigm
Old 05-26-2005, 02:37 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Sure I put SB on KK or AA, but with all those callers on the flop, and the 89 and 2 clubs beating me on the turn, was it that chickenshit to check the river here?
Yes. When deciding whether to bet the river consider
A) do I most likely have the best hand?
with a set, and this action, the answer is yes.
B) Is it likely that I will be called by a worse hand?
again, this action looks like you are up against some strong hands. I would have thought AJ and KK, but same general idea. both these hands will pay off your set.
C) Can I get a better hand to fold?
In this situation, it is obviously no, but it is something to think about often.
D) will a better hand raise me?
Here a big flush is the only hand that you are afraid of (89 is highly unlikely) And a raise would have probably come on the turn.

So In conclusion, Always bet the river unless a better hand will raise and a worse hand will fold. This occurs most often when you have a weak hand like middle pair or TPWK and the river completes a draw.


Also, fold preflop. You are far behind the range of hands that UTG players are raising with. (either a coinflip against overcards, or dominated by an overpair.) Since there is a raise, you will not get the number of players in the hand to give you the implied odds that you need to draw to the set. If you read UTG as weak, you should 3 bet to isolate. Quit calling raises cold.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Fnord
Old 05-26-2005, 03:12 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I would need to see 4 to a flush on the board before even thinking about checking.

In spots like this, close your eyes and bet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Phyl
Old 05-26-2005, 10:48 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Bet. What are the chances of SB or UTG having a nine given the previous action? And you would have heard from two clubs on the turn.
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chardrian
Old 05-26-2005, 01:49 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Ok ok - I missed the opportunity to win 2 bets. I am just so used to the river reraise that I weenied out here.

Demi - yes I was afraid of the flush on the turn - but from my experience (which again is basically only in the 3/6 5 player max game) I was also very worried on the turn about 89s - either UTG or UTG +1 coulda had that. Although the turn calls relieved me a bit, I'm also very used to seeing foolios call the turn and check the river with the flush or str8 there to try and checkraise the river. But yes - next time I'll grab my ankles and bet the river. Thanks.
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chardrian
Old 05-26-2005, 01:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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[quote="Demiparadigm"]
Quote:

Also, fold preflop. You are far behind the range of hands that UTG players are raising with. (either a coinflip against overcards, or dominated by an overpair.) Since there is a raise, you will not get the number of players in the hand to give you the implied odds that you need to draw to the set. If you read UTG as weak, you should 3 bet to isolate. Quit calling raises cold.
Really? Two in front of me, BB behind me who I assume will protect his blind - I'm looking at 4 way action for 2 SBs and I should fold? I'm less than 1 in 5 to hit. But the pay off seems well worth it to me. If I don't hit the flop, I fold and am out 2 SBs. Bad way of looking at this over the long run?
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Demiparadigm
Old 05-27-2005, 07:28 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chardrian
Really? Two in front of me, BB behind me who I assume will protect his blind - I'm looking at 4 way action for 2 SBs and I should fold? I'm less than 1 in 5 to hit. But the pay off seems well worth it to me. If I don't hit the flop, I fold and am out 2 SBs. Bad way of looking at this over the long run?
You are getting 2.5 to 1 immediate odds to call, and you are about 8 to 1 to make your set. You do not close the action, so there may be a raise behind you. In general, you need to expect a great deal in terms of implied odds to make this call. Also consider that there will be times that you make your set and everyone folds, or worse you make your set and lose. (which happens more often than people seem to think.)

Hyper will tell you to call though, so meh, there are worse ways to get your money in.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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