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i just don't think my kings were any good

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littleogre

05-01-2007, 08:43 AM Post subject: i just don't think my kings were any good

#1 (permalink)

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

, K

.
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero caps, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3

, T

(3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

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littleogre

05-01-2007, 08:56 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,344

i only have 55 hands on the villan but here are his numbers

Vp$IP=10.91
agr=.80

So i'm gona go out on a limb and say our friend is not gona make many moves. Also he only went to showdown once in those 55 hands.

littleogre

05-01-2007, 10:17 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

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another question would be should i have even seen the turn in the first place versus such a weak tight player?

elipsesjeff

05-01-2007, 10:46 AM

#4 (permalink)

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

so if his range here is JJ-AA and AKh why are we folding turn?

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littleogre

05-01-2007, 11:18 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

so if his range here is JJ-AA and AKh why are we folding turn?

Do you really think someone that weak tight is 3 banging JJ? Against most opponents that is a possibility but against such a tight and passive player i would put them on QQ-AA. As well as A/K. Also he very rarely goes to the river or shows any strength without a very strong hand. People with a pfr of .80 genarally lack the ability to make any moves

NWNewell

05-01-2007, 04:43 PM

#6 (permalink)

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I would think raising the flop with AK is a little out of place here if he is as tight/passive as you say. I'm thinking he has AA-JJ at this point. Maybe a ten (but then again, what hands would he 3-bet with a ten in it? TT? A very unlikely holding)

Some may say it is a stupid line, but when the Ace hits the turn, I'm probably b/f'ing. If he has KK-JJ he will be slowing down when you call his flop raise and donk into him with the Ace on the turn. If he as the your KK beat, he is going to raise again and I would fold.

While I am inclined to be worried about being beat as well... you may be 75% sure you are beat already when that Ace hits the turn, but the pot is too big to just give it up (8.5bb) with a 25% chance of winning.

I think betting out on the turn is worth the price for extra information.

Otherwise, I would probably be pretty fear full of AA but figure he could be pushing any over pair pretty hard and simply c/c down.

I don't know.... just my $0.02.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

mike4066

05-02-2007, 12:40 AM

#7 (permalink)

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55 hands isn't enough to put him on a range strong enough to fold here.
You've built a big pot here, i don't check / fold this turn.
I'd rather bet/fold to a riase , and check / call the river the river if he calls the turn.

Not sure why, but i think thats why i do. (but i suck and don't fold anymore iether so do with this infomation what you want. )

|~|ypermegachi

05-02-2007, 03:28 AM

#8 (permalink)

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AKs should make a value raise on the flop here 100%. JJ, QQ are probably calling down for fear of a bigger pair (passive right?), so i don't see them raising. likely candidates are AKs, AA, KK.

anyways, i like bet/folding the turn.

c-luvin

05-02-2007, 06:01 AM

#9 (permalink)

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i would c/r the flop for more info because AKh is raising this flop, so c/r someone will bet in a 3 way capped pot. that way we can lead turn and fold to a raise and have more FE throughout the entire hand.
also if he 3 bets your c/r you have to c/f turn

bigspenda73

05-02-2007, 06:18 AM

#10 (permalink)

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bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

Im trying to build an argument for a flop 3bet but the turn card is really damaging any possible argument.

I think the HH is better without the turn card.

What's our plan on this flop if the turn is a

If we assume the turn will be a blank (mathematic probability) what is the correct flop line?

C/r turn, call down a 3bet?
Lead turn, call down a raise?
Lead turn, 3bet turn?

FWIW, this is a hand I would consider triple-donking safe turn/river cards and expect to profit from a player at this level who thinks JJ/QQ is the nuts on this board. Against a typical .25/.50 player I wouldn't mind getting 2 bets in on each street with KK on a TTxxx board.

NWNewell

05-02-2007, 10:58 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by c-luvin

I don't care for c/r the flop. I don't think we really need the information and we are only going to scare worse hands out.

UTG is probably dead money, unless he was a flush draw or a Ten he is folding no mater what. If he does have the fd or ten, then is is probably only going to slowplay/call the flop regardless. And if he actually does have garbage that he is thinking about calling with, I would rather not chase out his nearly dead money by making him face two bets cold.

We've already got MP1 on a pretty good range and c/r isn't going to do too much for us. It will probably slow down almost any hand he has but not get him to fold any of them except maybe non-heart AK. And we don't really want him to fold AK. We want him to stay in with AK, QQ, and JJ. We only want him to fold AA and that probably isn't going to happen.

I think we get more value from getting MP1 to continue to play with us on this flop than we get from trying to trick him into folding a better hand (or trying to gain enough info and trying to make a big fold this early in the hand). Especially when we consider that even if we are a 3:2 dog to him, we get an extra ~0.16bb from enticing UTG to put an additional sb in when he is drawing way behind (maybe two overs). And in the rare chance that he does, he is probably going to call MP1 flop raise for an additional bet giving us up to ~0.32bb from his dead money.

Thoughts?

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

euphoricism

05-02-2007, 03:55 PM

#12 (permalink)

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If the turn was a rag, I like bet/call, check/call.

The c/r calldown is alright as well but I think the former is better.

I dont hate a bet/call bet/call line, but that depends on my view on opponent and whether im willing to put 2bb on each street at that given moment. Probably not something I'm doing against a guy with a 10% vpip (we know his VPIP is 10%, so his PFR is probably like 6-7%, and his cap range is.. well.. you know what his cap range is and we're holding 1/3rd and maybe half of it.) because he's inevitably very passive postflop. If he's capped pre, raised flop, and raised turn..

I think a bet/3bet would be spewy against this opponent for that reason. Assuming villain is playing as his stats say he is, of course. 55 hands at full ring aint much.

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NWNewell

05-02-2007, 04:45 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by euphoricism

If the turn was a rag, I like bet/call, check/call.

The c/r calldown is alright as well but I think the former is better.

I dont hate a bet/call bet/call line....

I agree...

I'd bet/call a ragged turn and play the river accordingly.

I don't mind b/c, b/c as a distant second option. But as euphor said, not against this guy. If he raised my turn bet, I'm c/c'ing the river.

I don't really care for c/r'ing the turn. We are begging for a weaker hand to fold and you are going to have a hard time convincing a better hand (AA) to fold at these stakes. I think it might earn you an extra bet when you are ahead, but you are opening your self up to a 3-bet and probably costing you two extra bets to showdown you are behind. Of course, you could always fold the the 3-bet if you are confident that means you are behind. But you can also just show down for the same price.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

littleogre

05-03-2007, 12:33 AM

#14 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2004

Posts: 1,344

if the turn is a blank i lead out then if he raises i call then i check call the river. An above poster said that 55 hands is not enough hands to get an acurate read on someone. I tend to agree but it can give you general idea of how they play. I mean granny mctight wad sits down and has only played 1 hand in 3 rotations there are likely a tight player. When he 3 bet preflop i said to my self this guy eitther has AA/KK/QQ or big slick. When he raised me on the flop i thought he has AA-qq and possible AK but is someone with a .80 agr really raising 2 overs? Then an ace hit on the turn. At this point we all know AA beats me AK beats me and i tied with KK. I only beat QQ.

SHAKE

06-11-2007, 03:16 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Posts: 278

Call down. 55 hands is nothing, he could just be running cold.

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