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i hate these spots...

  
 
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DrivingDog
Old 02-11-2008, 11:31 PM     Post subject: i hate these spots... #1 (permalink)  
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CO was goofy 70/1/2.5 who liked to be in lots of pots and overplayed his hands a lot postflop. BB was 35/15/1, slightly LP but not bad for 2/4.

I couldn't see CO raising the flop with a draw here. I put him on a random Kx hand. Plan was to c/r the turn, but once BB does it I'm wondering if it's even worth a call?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K.
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K, 3, 4 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 9 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB calls, BB raises, Hero...
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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arborman
Old 02-11-2008, 11:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I don't play shorthanded, but I think BB is paying too much attention to the fish and not enough to you. Might be worth a 3bet, since I don't know what BB would have that improved on the turn (other than k9 or 99, which is unlikely). At least one, or two, of the others are chasing their A-5 wheel straight.

That said, I probably 3bet flop.
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Jibalob
Old 02-12-2008, 12:28 AM #3 (permalink)  
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If I am in BB's spot I raise alot of TPGK hands here to try and force you out and get HU with the fish.

That being said, I can't think of a hand that you're beating that cold calls 2 bets on the flop and then c/r's the turn.

I think this polarizes his hand range alot to either a monster such as a set (Can't see 2 pair here) or possibly a draw that has made a marginal improvement.

This really is a tough one because I can't think of any two hole cards that make sense here. 33 and 44 are almost 100% ruled out, 99 is extremely unlikely as is K9s (I think?).

I know we shouldn't narrow down all the way to 1 single hand but I think I'm gonna have to say this is As9s. Maybe KQ, KA or KK but the goofy preflop/flop play and the fact that 2 ks are already accounted for make these hands seem unlikely.

There is also always the possibility that this is a prime example of slowplayed AA gone horribly wrong


My money is on A9 of spades
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jmontis
Old 02-12-2008, 02:47 AM #4 (permalink)  
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it's so close it probably doesn't matter, to be honest.
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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DrivingDog
Old 02-12-2008, 10:47 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Once I did the math on this it wasn't really a hard decision (after the fact that is, at the time it still was).

BB's stats are 35/15/1.

Preflop he's getting 7:1 to call closing the action. I could see him calling here with 22+, A8+, K9+, QT+, JT, T9, 98, 87, 76, 65, and anything suited. He's aggresive enough to raise a premium hand here, so JJ+, AK are probably out.

He calls two cold on the flop getting 6.5:1 with the preflop raiser/ initial flop bettor left to act behind him. He's a bit loose, but it's fairly safe to assume that he has at least a pair or FD.

He c/r's the turn bet by CO after it was already called by SB. Considering his AF=1, this is almost never a draw and almost always two pair or better. It might be different if he were more aggressive and his opponents were tight since he'd have some fold equity. But since CO raised the flop and SB called two cold on the flop and a turn bet as well there's no reason to think they're going to fold now.

Possible BB hands and our outs:

33 (3 hands) - we have 0 outs
44 (3 hands) - we have 0 outs
99 (3 hands) - we have 0 outs
K9 (6 hands) - we have 3 outs
K4s (2 hands) - we have 6 outs
K3s (2 hands) - we have 9 outs
94s (2 hands) - we have 8 outs
93s (2 hands) - we have 8 outs
43s (2 hands) - we have 8 outs

This makes an average of 3.8 outs for us, giving us about 8% equity vs. this range. We're getting 6:1 to call two cold, 8:1 if we assume CO and SB will call as well, and implied odds of 20:3 if everyone puts in one more bet on the river. Not enough. Also, we can improve vs. a two pair hand and still lose to a flush or trips (and end up losing two more bets on the river to find out). Finally, there's a slim chance that CO has two pair or better himself and is going to jam the turn, which is not good for us either.
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Jibalob
Old 02-12-2008, 02:05 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Damn I need to pay more attention!

My entire response above was based on CO's cold calling preflop/flop and turn raising range NOT BB's.

Please ignore my retarded reply above - I would also like to take my money "off" As9s now if you don't mind
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MTTGuy
Old 05-29-2008, 09:23 PM #7 (permalink)  

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dsaxton
Old 05-30-2008, 03:28 AM #8 (permalink)  
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I might just say "fuck it" and cap the flop assuming these players are loose enough not to require legitimate draws to call two bets cold here, which seems likely to be the case.

Having called the flop, I would probably lead the turn, although your play might actually be slightly better if the guy who raised the flop can be expected to bet.

As played, once it's two bets back to you from a passive opponent, I don't think you can call.
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euphoricism
Old 05-30-2008, 06:00 PM #9 (permalink)  
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reraise flop and its not even close. Then either bet/fold turn or checkthru autocall the river. I like the first option better.
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DrivingDog
Old 05-30-2008, 06:47 PM #10 (permalink)  
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3betting the flop does nothng to protect my hand. someone coudl already have a set so I'd just be donating.

By waiting till the turn I can see the action behind the raiser before making a decision.
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dsaxton
Old 05-30-2008, 06:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I'm gessing his thinking is that the flop may be a horse race paradox type situation, but it seems more likely his opponents are just ridonkulously loose and/or sharing outs or dominated.
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DrivingDog
Old 05-30-2008, 06:53 PM #12 (permalink)  
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More likely the latter.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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DrivingDog
Old 05-30-2008, 10:04 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Here I prefer to see the turn on the left of the flop raiser and if it's a bet and several calls I will raise. Otherwise I can only believe I'm sitting on 0-3 outs.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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hlester25
Old 06-01-2008, 03:05 AM #14 (permalink)  
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IMO, this is an easy laydown

BB has 33 or 44
CO has KJ or KQ
SB has spades

either way with all the action, no way you are good, no way.

and no way the BB is raising here on a draw.
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DrivingDog
Old 06-01-2008, 02:32 PM #15 (permalink)  
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By not 3betting the flop on the draw-heavy board I effectively give myself the button and get to see the action on the turn before making a decision. Were SB and BB to just call the turn bet I can safely put them on draws or weaker made hands and charge them two BB each to see the river (more if CO decides to 3bet with a hand like KQ, KJ). Once one of them raises chances are I am drawing very thin or dead.

The danger is that the turn checks around but given that CO raised the flop it's likely that he has a made hand and will bet the turn if checked to. If a draw completed it might be better to b/f the turn because CO may get cold feet. Also if an A came I'd probably lead the turn and call down a raise.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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