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Fnord

05-25-2005, 10:34 PM Post subject: I got your money and your honey and the fly name plate

#1 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Villain is loose and capable of aggression

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is Button with 7

, Q

.
4 folds, Fnord raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) Q

, 8

, 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Fnord bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4

(2 players)
BB bets, Fnord calls.

River: (5.16 BB) T

(2 players)
BB bets, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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Phyl

05-25-2005, 10:56 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Post-flop looks excellent, you have the best hand often but calling down is so much better than raising.

I think the preflop raise is probably good but I don't know if I'd make it against a loose BB. Loose players will often correctly defend their blinds with a wide range of hands and your hand has hardly any showdown value.

Fnord

05-25-2005, 11:03 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Phyl

I think the preflop raise is probably good but I don't know if I'd make it against a loose BB. Loose players will often correctly defend their blinds with a wide range of hands and your hand has hardly any showdown value.

I figured he'd f it up post-flop often enough to make this raise. Then there is always Shania *drool*. I guess I was feeling frisky...

I thought the turn + river calls were kinda weak but couldn't make up my mind about which one to raise so I just kinda froze up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Les_Worm

05-25-2005, 11:44 PM

#4 (permalink)

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I probably put a raise in here on the river. If he has a big hand I would expect a check/raise on the turn, not for him to lead.

The artist formerly known as Knish
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Phil Ivey Owns You

Demiparadigm

05-26-2005, 12:55 AM

#5 (permalink)

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I think that in most situations a raise on the turn is more correct than a raise on the river, since at the turn there are more cards to come and you are more likely to get calls.
In this situation I think the best answer is it depends.
First, I want to show down as few hands as possible. I want my opponents to have to guess about what I had or if I was bluffing.
However, there is definite value in "advertising." By showing down this hand you are also showing that you will raise with weak hands and position. this is actually better to do against a player who defends their blind too much than to do against a player who defends too little. It will tend to make that player more likely to defend in the future, therefore making the player who defends too much play further from optimal and the player who defends too little play more correctly.
When the BB bets on the turn It can mean one of two things:A) He has a better hand than you or B) He has a worse hand than you.
A) This bet could mean that the BB has made a hand like 2 pair or a straight, both of which would be consistent wit ha player who calls too much. If the BB is the type of player who would call on the flop with a draw, then bet with a big hand, then a call here is correct. You have at least 8 outs to beat 2 pair if he made 2 pair on the turn, as well as your inside straight draw. It is also possible, though unlikely that the BB made a set of fours, in which case you are drawing very slim, or he had you beat on the flop, which is also unlikely.
In any of the cases in which the BB has you beat, most players would try for a check raise on the turn. This diminishes the chances that the BB has the best hand.
B) This is a common bluff for a lot of players. It is also the most ineffective bluff that I have seen. Since the range of hands that you would have to call with to beat top pair when the 4 comes is strange, the 4 is not really a scare card. This devalues the effectiveness of a bluff.
It is possible that the BB improved his hand with the 4, but to a still second best hand. This I think is the most likely scenario. For example a hand like A4 now has a pair and an overcard, or a hand like 67 picked up the gutshot draw with the pair. The 4 also puts a possible flush draw on the board. Many players would bet here with a hand like 6

Since the possibility that he has the best hand is low, and the possibilty that he is semibluffing is high, That tends to lend itself to a turn raise. You probably have the best hand, and if he has a draw, he will call the raise, whereas if he is bluffing, or has a very weak hand like 67, he is less likely to call a raise on the river, and also less likely to bet the river when you call on the turn. If he has a better hand than you, He will sometimes 3 bet the river, making a call on the river if he bets better than raising. So the highest EV for this hand seems to be a raise on the turn.

But now we must think of Shania.
What is the effect on your table image and subsequent action as a result of showing down this hand? We discussed earlier that you are more likely to get called by weaker hands than you would have prior to this incident.
So how does that affect your hourly rate? Obviously if you continue to raise with marginal hands, your hourly rate will go down, since you will be called more often, decreasing your chance of winning, and you will be 3 bet more often by better hands cutting pretty deep into your profits. However, your premium hands will go up in value, since you will be more likely to be called preflop by more marginal hands. Unfortunately you get far more marginal hands than premium hands, so I think that the loss of profits on the marginal hands will outweigh the increased action on the premium hands. So you will lose money by showing down this hand and continuing to play at 22/12.
But Shania is constantly evolving.
This could be great for your overall profit, if immediately after this play you switch back to TAgg for a while and play 18/7 or so, until the effects have worn off, and your raises once again get the respect that you deserve. You must constantly keep your opponents off balance and making mistakes.
Borrowing some concepts from NL Tournament play, Daniel Negreanu has stated that it is sometimes correct to make a -EV play If it will put you in a position to win more chips in the future (for example calling a raise with bad pot odds if it will prevent your opponents from trying to raise you out in other hands.)
Phil Hellmuth has often mentioned that he avoids small +EV situations in tournaments, so that he can wait for larger EV opportunities.
These concepts are not exclusive of each other and are also applicable to the realm of Limit cash games.
The most important thing is to monitor your own play, and think about how your opponents are changing to adapt to you. Then think about how you want them to change and what you must do to manipulate them into playing the way against you that you would like them to. Reading players in this way is very much like reading hands... "what did they do before? What are they doing now?" But over a longer period of time.
And that may be the essence of Shania.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

poskid_1982

05-26-2005, 03:15 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Fnord do you normally call this down or do you look to raise? i think a river raise may be a bad idea shodown value is only good for table image...why would he choose to check/call the flop and then lead the turn? Changing gears like this is not normal. I think it shows more strength than a c/r here because he's basically spitting on a 2bet. That is the question that really ponders me...I would think maybe 2pair with small stuff and is hoping you'll raise back at him or a pair with a picked up flush draw...both reasonable hands here but still doesnt make sense with the change of gears.

Superb play sir...I always call 20% of my stack off with a gutshot draw. Excuse me while I race for my wallet.

Fnord

05-26-2005, 03:17 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Villain had A3o and MHIG.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Phil Hellmuth has often mentioned that he avoids small +EV situations in tournaments, so that he can wait for larger EV opportunities.

Passing on any value has no place in a cash game IMHO (unless your edge is smaller than the additional rake paid.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Demiparadigm

05-26-2005, 04:33 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Passing on any value has no place in a cash game IMHO (unless your edge is smaller than the additional rake paid

In that case, I think you should
A) fold preflop. Q7o is not a strong hand against two random hands, and you have little fold equity against a loose player in the BB.
B) raise on the turn. Your hand here is much better than the range of hands that we expect to bet into you, So you are giving up equity in hopes of a cheap showdown on the off chance you are beat.

Caro makes the point that it is possible to have two different professional players, one playing nearly twice as many hands as the other, and have both players make approximately the same in terms of long term win rate.
This is because so many hands have so little positive expectation, that by pushing every possible edge, you will increase your variance without notably increasing your win rate. (An example is limping in MP with a hand like A7s or pocket 4s. Folding these hands will probably not affect your win rate significantly.)
The fewer hands that you play, the more credit your opponents will give you, and you will win a much higher percentage of the pots that you enter. You will win more pots uncontested, more hands without a showdown. Therefore the value of your bluffs is much higher.
The more hands that you play, the more action you will get, but you will be forced to showdown the best hand more often. You will also have players draw out on you more often, calling you down with weaker hands like middle pair.
The more hands that you add that should have a slight positive expectation, the lower the expectation of the other slight positive hands, thereby effectively negating the effect of adding "a positive to a positive" The only place that you make up for this negative effect on your expectation is the action that you get on your premium hands, which as I mentioned earlier, occur far less frequently than your marginal ones.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Demiparadigm

05-26-2005, 04:51 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Now to paraphrase ElipsesJeff: "The majority of your profit comes from your premium hands, everything else is just paying the rake"

Since you will get more action on your premium hands, a strong case can be made for trying to extract the maximum value from marginal situations. To do this, however, you must be very confident that your post flop play is much better than your opponents'.
Otherwise it is important to note that if you are playing a very tight game, and make a mistake such as betting with a weaker hand than your opponent, You will be given much more credit, and not be forced to lose the maximum with a second best hand. As your bluffs go up in value, so do your mistakes, and you will win some hands without a showdown where you were second best. This is not true if you have shown down marginal hands in the past.
Also as you metioned, many times (especially at the lower limits) your edge is less than the increased rake that you pay. So often it becomes correct to pass on a slight +EV situation, even in a limit cash game.

Shania will thank you.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

ArcticKnight

05-26-2005, 05:28 AM

#10 (permalink)

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To quote Fnord

"fold pre-flop"

This must be pure blind steal.

Q7os is ugly, even with position.

Vulnerable to A or K, your Q is weak, no flush or str8 posibilities. You got one the best flops you could get, perhaps, and even then it's hard to be sure where you are.

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

Phyl

05-26-2005, 11:08 AM

#11 (permalink)

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I think a calldown is much better here than a raise on either street.

A pair of Queens is often the best hand here so a raise would seem good but Villian's bet is a bluff so often. He probably wont call a raise on the turn with a weaker hand and by raising you miss out on him bluffing the river. Also letting him see a river card with possible outs isn't that big a deal in a 3-4BB pot.

I don't like a raise on the river because I don't think he'll call with anything worse.

Fnord

05-26-2005, 01:29 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Phyl

I don't like a raise on the river because I don't think he'll call with anything worse.

I'm 90% certain this guy calls or re-raises a river raise with a naked Ace. This is EXACTLY why I wanted to play a break-even hand against him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

stuck

05-26-2005, 01:53 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by poskid_1982

Actually, it's a fairly standard play. PF raiser bets on the flop after checked to him. Blind thinks he's full of it, calls, and then bets after the next card comes down, even if he has shit. It's called stop'n'go.

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

Fnord

05-26-2005, 02:29 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by stuck

Technically, a Stop'n'Go is when you just call a raise on one street, then lead the next street. A check/call on a street followed by a bet on the next street has recently been coined the "gaybet" or "donkbet" as weak players will make these moves with weak hands because they're too risk adverse to show strength with a check/raise.

Anyway, the turn gaybet blind defense play is in HEFAP. Maybe it's just because of the game textures I play in, but I've never run this play, although I semi-bluff and on a few rare occasions have naked bluff check/raised the flop. I'm also check/raising small pots quite a bit to exploit the button auto-bet. I guess I have concerns about how much respect this play gets from both thinking players and the usual cast of losers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

05-27-2005, 06:12 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Hands like this make me think calling down with top pair in these situations is leaving too much money on the table.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is CO with K

, Q

.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Fnord raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 2

, 9

, K

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Fnord raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Fnord calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 3

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Fnord raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Fnord calls.

River: (11.66 BB) K

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Fnord raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 17.66 BB

Results:
UTG+1 has 9d Ad (two pair, kings and nines).
Fnord has Kc Qc (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Fnord wins 17.66 BB.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Demiparadigm

05-27-2005, 07:12 AM Post subject: Fun with quotes

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by phyl

Here's what I think:

Quote:

Originally Posted by demiparadigm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daniel Negreanu

Let’s say for this example that you decide there is a 50 percent chance that your queens are good; what should you do? I’m guessing that most of you are saying call on the turn and again on the river. That has to be the best way to play the hand, right? Wrong.

There is an even better way to play this hand if you decide to play it at all. Why not raise? Think about it: If you are going to call the turn and the river regardless, raising costs you no extra money (unless your opponent is a timid player and might check a king on the river if a scare card comes). Once you’ve raised on the turn, you can simply check down the river if you are worried you are beat, or that you won’t get called by a worse hand in this spot.

The beauty of playing it this way is that if you happen to be wrong and your opponent does have [you beat], you’ll win an extra bet on the river if you catch a third queen. And if you are right that your opponent has a draw, you’ll be getting extra value from the hand by making him pay two bets to beat you rather than just one. And, heck, if your opponent is worried his [hand] is no good, you may even be able to get him to lay down the best hand! All in all, if you are going to call him down anyway, raising is a win-win situation.

http://live.cardplayer.com/poker_mag...es/?a_id=12911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phyl

Hand 3:

Button is 14/9.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

, A

.
Hero raises, 5 folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) Q

, T

, Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 5

(2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.70 BB) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.70 BB

If you call the turn after a raise, why wouldn't he?

Quote:

Originally Posted by poskid

why would he choose to check/call the flop and then lead the turn? Changing gears like this is not normal. I think it shows more strength than a c/r here because he's basically spitting on a 2bet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

A check/call on a street followed by a bet on the next street has recently been coined the "gaybet" or "donkbet" as weak players will make these moves with weak hands because they're too risk adverse to show strength with a check/raise.

I have always thought of this as a "weak lead" although I guess "gaybet" works. I agree that it is a weak play, and rarely indicates a strong hand, although it does tend to indicate some improvement as I stated here:

Quote:

Originally Posted by demiparadigm

This is a common bluff for a lot of players. It is also the most ineffective bluff that I have seen. Since the range of hands that he would have called with that beat top pair when the 4 comes is strange, the 4 is not really a scare card. This devalues the effectiveness of a bluff.
It is possible that the BB improved his hand with the 4, but to a still second best hand. This I think is the most likely scenario. For example a hand like A4 now has a pair and an overcard, or a hand like 67 picked up the gutshot draw with the pair. The 4

also puts a possible flush draw on the board. Many players would bet here with a hand like 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

I guess I have concerns about how much respect this play gets from both thinking players and the usual cast of losers.

A checkraise here would be a much better play than the "donkbet" Though I would not advocate it as a pure bluff, but as either a semibluff or a "I might have the best hand" value bluff.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Hands like this make me think calling down with top pair in these situations is leaving too much money on the table.

I agree. More raising, less calling = greater Shania.
To go along with raising more, I think you also must fold more often. Very few situations stand out where a call is clearly correct.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Room

05-27-2005, 12:31 PM Post subject: Re: I got your money and your honey and the fly name plate

#17 (permalink)

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Posts: 197

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Villain is loose and capable of aggression

No need to raise here and get pushed off the best hand. Play it break even and show it down. I like it, well played. Your KcQc line is awkward and probably only works against aggro morons.

Demi - The play described in your quote from Negreanu is a meaningful play IF your opponent is not aggro and capable of folding. It doesn't sound like this opponent falls into this category.

stuck

05-27-2005, 03:02 PM Post subject: Re: I got your money and your honey and the fly name plate

#18 (permalink)

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Posts: 586

Quote:

Originally Posted by Room

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Villain is loose and capable of aggression

No need to raise here and get pushed off the best hand. Play it break even and show it down. I like it, well played. Your KcQc line is awkward and probably only works against aggro morons.

I like not raising the first hand and I agree that the KcQc line seems awkward, but still well played (assuming reads). Aggro blind 3-bets the river, possibly TPNK or middle pair even, so Fnord goes for a value raise on the turn, but the 3-bet gives cause for concern. The final K on the river makes Fnord pretty sure he has the best hand (really only scared about a boat or an unlikely AK) and I think Fnord's good often enough here to make the raise+call.

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

Room

05-27-2005, 05:58 PM Post subject: Re: I got your money and your honey and the fly name plate

#19 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by stuck

I agree that the KcQc line seems awkward, but still well played (assuming reads).

If his read is the guy doesn't have a K or a boat, why aren't we capping the turn? It just feels like we think we have the best hand, so we raise, but when it gets reraised, we get nervous and call. Then on the next street, we do the same ... and again on the river. Seems like we aren't following through with our read.

Fnord

05-27-2005, 06:25 PM

#20 (permalink)

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I figured he was full of shit when he 3-bet me on the flop, so I called planning to c/r any friendly turn. When he 3-bet my turn c/r I slowed down. The river gave me all the more reason to think I had this guy smoked so I put in one more there and called the 3-bet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

stuck

05-27-2005, 06:32 PM Post subject: Re: I got your money and your honey and the fly name plate

#21 (permalink)

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Posts: 586

Quote:

Originally Posted by Room

Quote:

Originally Posted by stuck

I agree that the KcQc line seems awkward, but still well played (assuming reads).

It's been my experience that in limit, reads can only do you so much good; they provide a starting point for your actions and beliefs, but not necessarily at the expense of your pot equity. Naturally, if you know you're beat you should fold and if you know you're ahead you should raise, but no read on the world could put this guy on A9 or K3 or whatever.

It's just the river line that seems awkward after the flop & turn. I think that the river K changes your pot equity enough such that you now have reason for that line: there's less reason to believe they have a K and you can believe a bit more that you actually have the best hand.

Flop & turn play are: I think I'm ahead here, based on reads and cards, I'm raising. Oops, he 3-bet me on the turn.. maybe he does have me beat with a better K or set..

River play here is more about pot equity, I believe. Any raggy two-pair he had just got counterfieted, and the chances of him having that K with a better or paired kicker is much lower.

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

Fnord

05-27-2005, 07:27 PM

#22 (permalink)

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That and I'm trying to make a habbit of bet/raising instead of check/calling in some close spots. Every time I review hand histories for my previous session I see lots of missed bets and I'm trying to miss fewer and fewer as I grow as a player.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Demiparadigm

05-27-2005, 10:45 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Demi - The play described in your quote from Negreanu is a meaningful play IF your opponent is not aggro and capable of folding. It doesn't sound like this opponent falls into this category.

We don't want our opponent to fold. We have the best hand.

Quote:

No need to raise here and get pushed off the best hand. Play it break even and show it down. I like it, well played.

We are not afraid of being pushed off the best hand, since we are not folding either.

This is not a way ahead / way behind situation that would make a call correct. If the turn card was a king, I think calling may an option (Though I think raising is still better) But this is a situation where you most likely have the best hand, and you want to get as much money as possible.
How much money are you losing by just calling down with the best hand time after time?

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Room

05-28-2005, 12:40 AM

#24 (permalink)

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Posts: 197

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

We don't want our opponent to fold. We have the best hand.

I think when our opponent is capable of aggression, we don't need to play back at him when it forces us to make tough decisions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

We are not afraid of being pushed off the best hand, since we are not folding either.

If he 3-bets the turn and leads, we call?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

How much money are you losing by just calling down with the best hand time after time

I'm not as much concerned as getting 1 extra BB from an aggressive player who will put me in a tough spot by 3-betting. That cost's me 4 bets instead of 2 when I'm behind.

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