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gutshot

06-22-2005, 11:21 PM Post subject: huge flop action

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

I was kinda lost on how to play this after it got back to me 2 more bets cold on the flop. I had a decently hidden draw so I stuck it out.

CO is a multitable TP-A, others are donkalicious/unknown.
Comments?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

, 5

. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J

, 9

, 7

(6 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13 BB) J

(5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

River: (17 BB) 6

(4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 25 BB

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

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Fnord

06-22-2005, 11:47 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Why are you raising the flop?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

elipsesjeff

06-22-2005, 11:48 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Location: Northern Virginia

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Well, you were already in it for two on the flop, I think it was okay for two more. Considering you were getting 13-1 to call it's more than okay.

You have to watch for T8 and the boat here.

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Fnord

06-22-2005, 11:53 PM

#4 (permalink)

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He's got a double belly buster on a flush draw board with no big cards to hit against call happy opponents in a 6 way pot. Facing the field with 2 cold out of position is the last thing I want to do here. All the hands that have little to no effect on your equity will often fold and the hands that cut into your equity will call/raise.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

StinkyBeaver

06-23-2005, 12:15 AM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2005

Location: Denmark

Posts: 275

I don't get the flop raise. It's not going to buy you any outs I think and chances are that flush draws aren't folding here either. With no overs and an oesd I think its better to go for some overcalls instead of raising to build the pot. Anyways you did build one hell of a pot

gutshot

06-23-2005, 12:38 AM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

Back to SSH 101 for me I guess. I think I'm a little too anxious to raise a OESD or double gutshot without additional outs to a backdoor flush or overcards.

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

koolmoe

06-23-2005, 01:25 AM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

You've got to discount your outs here since neither straight is the nuts and two of your outs might be dirty. I am not three bettting the river for sure, despite the fact that your draw is hidden.

Poker is freedom

elipsesjeff

06-23-2005, 01:38 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Nah, I dont mind his raise on the flop. He's got equity and with so many opponents he's building his pot.

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

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pokerfanatic

06-23-2005, 04:31 AM

#9 (permalink)

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I would not raise that flop hell i would probably would muck it...

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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elipsesjeff

06-23-2005, 04:48 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic01

I would not raise that flop hell i would probably would muck it...

Way too weak-tight. He's got an open ender or near equivalent. The pot is huge. I'm not folding.

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Fnord

06-23-2005, 07:53 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Nah, I dont mind his raise on the flop. He's got equity and with so many opponents he's building his pot.

No, he's cutting off the pot and got lucky not to kill off his action.

It took 4 random hands to call to get an equity edge. Given that better than random hands are generally continuing here, he doesn't have a value raise.

4,036,192 games 26.828 secs 150,446 games/sec

Board: Jd 9s 7d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.3704 % [ 00.18 00.03 ] { 8h5c }
Hand 2: 19.9307 % [ 00.18 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 3: 19.8858 % [ 00.18 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 4: 19.9148 % [ 00.18 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 5: 19.8983 % [ 00.18 00.02 ] { random }

Folding would be stupid though...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

RiverMonkey

06-23-2005, 04:48 PM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Quote:

Originally Posted by gutshot

Back to SSH 101 for me I guess. I think I'm a little too anxious to raise a OESD or double gutshot without additional outs to a backdoor flush or overcards.

You can't fold in this pot, but a raise either has to be for value because you've got a pot equity edge (which you don't have here), to protect you hand/vulnerable outs, or to buy you a free card.

The equity numbers show you don't have a large enough edge to warrant a value raise, you don't really have outs or a hand to protect, and you are in the wrong position for a free card play. I think a flop call is a better line here.

gutshot

06-23-2005, 05:07 PM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is

Posts: 608

Interesting numbers from the 'stove. I honestly thought that I would have way more equity than that against 4 randoms. Granted,, I was sure I wasn't up against 4 randoms per the flop action behind me, but I didn't think it was so thin.

Thanks for the help.

Results:
CO shows 99 for the turned boat.
/me cries

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

Fnord

06-23-2005, 05:16 PM

#14 (permalink)

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A lot of aware players over-estimate their equity with an OSD on a flush draw board. Between the chance of having the second best draw, hitting and losing to both a 3 or 4 (board card) flush or boat/quads, bigger straight (in this case) and having 1 less out it's not nearly the powerhouse a flush draw is.

It's OK not to jam your draws. Particularly the weaker ones.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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