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How's my line?

  
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-11-2005, 07:22 PM     Post subject: How's my line? #1 (permalink)  
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Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K.
Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T, 4, 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 raises, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (11.25 BB) K (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB


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Ltrain
Old 11-11-2005, 07:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Do you have reads on the villans?
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-11-2005, 08:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
Do you have reads on the villans?
Not unless I posted them.


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Jay67s
Old 11-11-2005, 08:52 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Without reads, I think I find a fold on the turn. Again without a read on UTG+2 I think he hit a set. Plus the CO as an overcaller is worry as well.

Maybe you can put 1 one them on Diamond draw, but I don't think an Ace or King on the river wins here often enough
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Ltrain
Old 11-11-2005, 08:54 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
Do you have reads on the villans?
Not unless I posted them.
Ok... With no reads posted I would play it the same at the lower limits. The only semi-close street would be the turn but you are getting 1:10 on your call with no possibility of a raise. The most likely hands to me for UTG+2 is a set of 4's or 7's.
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pokerfanatic
Old 11-11-2005, 09:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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ummm tough spot you get your slef in on the turn, because you call there like you have told me a ton of times you are making a decesion for 2bb not one most the time...

i think you probably have 2OC that are clean i'm thinking he might have something like 66-99 because he only cold called PF then CO 3 bets i'm more wondering what the cold caller has then a 3 bettor... AJs, AQs, AK, AA-TT could be 3 bet at these levels even at 2/4 they could be... AJs might be less likely, depends on agression... so flop UTG+2 c/r and you are stuck in the middle i make that play for value on a FD a lot so somehint like QJs, KT-Qs maybe, but i'm think more along the line of a flush then a set set of 7s maybe... when he leads turn that's pretty standered when you c/r a flop... that tells me nothing... then he leads the river... ok so here is what posible hends i think he has... KQs-Ts, QJs, maybe QTs depends on how donky he is... or something like 66-99 only thing like that he would c/r posibly then lead down is 77 on the board...

unfurantly for you you can only beat 1 hand i thgink he has, KQ you screwed QT your screwed, 77 you screwed, QJ you beat, AK you tie (but this hand not real likely holding), if he over player 99 you win... if he cold called JJ like an idiot then pulled that line you win...

umm, i think you are about 70% of hands i can think of you are behind... pot justify the odds to call with only having to be good about 30%?
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-11-2005, 09:33 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay67s
Without reads, I think I find a fold on the turn. Again without a read on UTG+2 I think he hit a set. Plus the CO as an overcaller is worry as well.

Maybe you can put 1 one them on Diamond draw, but I don't think an Ace or King on the river wins here often enough
The turn call is probably the least questionable to me. I need less than 9-1 for my gutshot draw (which I believe if I do hit I'm a winner) and I'm getting over 10-1 to make the call.

The Flop call is thin, I obviously have to call the first bet, with two overcards and two backdoor draws. Once the second bet comes i get another shot to get out, but then i'm getting 16-1 and have to call again. To me, his flop checkraise can be a number of things: flush draw (likely), OESD (very unlikely), set, or TPTK.

Against the flush draw, I have a redraw on the turn. Against the OESD if he hits theres a good chance I hit as well. Against the set, both my backdoor draws are still good. Against TPTK, I've got 3 over card outs as well as both backdoor draws.

The river card is tough for me. I've hit one of 3 outs to beat TPTK, the flush draw and straight draw whiffed. I still think I'm good here more than 7.5% of the time to call the bet on the river.

These are my thoughts on it, but three marginal and close calls all put in the same hand i figured I would run this by you guys.


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Fnord
Old 11-11-2005, 11:54 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Demiparadigm
Old 11-12-2005, 12:15 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Without the 2 nut backdoor draws I fold the flop.
Nice hand.
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