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TylerK
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05-27-2005, 02:02 AM
Post subject: At how many hands should I start to consider my winrate?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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I just had a horrible session that effectively knocked my win rate at Party 2/4 down into the small fractions of a BB/100. This is in almost 6000 hands of 2/4. At what point should I start to consider my winrate at a given level representative of my actual capabilities? Is 6k hands enough to say "wow I'm fucked?" (I think I know the answer, but please say no anyway.)
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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I will say that I had a run of 30,000 hands where my win rate was above 3 BB/100 at 3/6 and I am currently on a run of about 35,000 hands where my win rate is -0.5 BB/100.....With that being said, I'll let you draw your own conclusions of how accurate a reading you can get from 6,000 hands...
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
I will say that I had a run of 30,000 hands where my win rate was above 3 BB/100 at 3/6 and I am currently on a run of about 35,000 hands where my win rate is -0.5 BB/100.....With that being said, I'll let you draw your own conclusions of how accurate a reading you can get from 6,000 hands...
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I just need to hear it from you guys. 
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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I think even a 100k hand data base would probably give you a solid reading BUT might not be "accurate"...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...rt=&PHPSESSID=
basically...a million hands for 95% confidence.
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