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How bad is a -25BB session?

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RiverMonkey

02-16-2005, 05:21 PM Post subject: How bad is a -25BB session?

#1 (permalink)

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As far as bad sessions go, how would you rate a -25BB session?

As you can probably guess I had never experienced a session this bad up until last night and would like to know where you think it lies on the variance spectrum for $4-8. Worst hand was pocket ladies cracked on the river with a ragged/paired (4s) board. I led the betting the whole way and had a old guy with pocket-deuces hit one on the river to take it down with trip-2s. I hope I get to play against him again soon

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gutshot

02-16-2005, 05:27 PM

#2 (permalink)

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It happens. I've done it both live and online. It's not the end of the world. This is why 300bb is recommended for a bankroll. In the grand scheme of things, 25bb is not much.

-jay

"i think the biggest leak in my game is using 2nd level thinking against players who can't think on the first level." -Renton

jmrogers7

02-16-2005, 05:30 PM

#3 (permalink)

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+/-100 BB swings are not uncommon in LHE.

"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun

elipsesjeff

02-16-2005, 05:36 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jmrogers7

+/-100 BB swings are not uncommon in LHE.

In one session? i disagree. Across multiple sessions, then yes. I think anyone who continues to play after they lose 50 BB is on the verge of being on serious tilt and will not only hurt the session you play in now, but will hurt the way you play in future days. You HAVE to stop the bleeding. I usually stop at 50 BB (like i said earlier, the first 50 BB session is the worst). Other people have their limits, 25 BB on the scheme of thing isnt that bad. In reality, 25 BB can be made up in 2-3 good hands.

If you are feeling shitty, take a break. Otherwise, as long as you are fully BRed, don't let it affect you.

(Don't let Fnord see this post :P)

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jmrogers7

02-16-2005, 05:42 PM

#5 (permalink)

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No, of course not in one session. That would be silly to continue playing when you are that far down for a single session. I was referring to any up or down variance swing.

"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun

Fnord

02-16-2005, 05:44 PM

#6 (permalink)

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I've dropped 100BB in a day. 50BB happens serveral times per week. 25BB happens a lot. I dropped $100 at a 2/4 table just this morning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

elipsesjeff

02-16-2005, 05:46 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

I've dropped 100BB in a day. 50BB happens serveral times per week. 25BB happens a lot. I dropped $100 at a 2/4 table just this morning.

Thats why I didnt want you to see this post....but, now that you are here:

How long of a break did you take when you dropped 100 BB of 15/30 in one day (if I remember correctly it was quite a while, well, for your standards)?

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Fnord

02-16-2005, 06:07 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

How long of a break did you take when you dropped 100 BB of 15/30 in one day (if I remember correctly it was quite a while, well, for your standards)?

I didn't quite get up to -100BB at 15/30. Although I was having a bad day at 5/10 as well and I think it was a 3k loss that day. I quit for a couple days after that...

However, I've played enough 2/4 and 3/6 to keep such things in perspective...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

RiverMonkey

02-16-2005, 06:20 PM

#9 (permalink)

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I play quite tight and generally speaking I am very patient. And, when I have an edge/good hand I push them aggressively (sometimes too hard , and I'm working on that

First step to fixing a problem is admitting you have one, right?

)!

Tight/patient ... Therefore, I think that I tend to have a relatively low variance and have had a pretty steady record of good profitable sessions (of course, I don't come out on top in all of them .. no one does - sometimes the cards are cruel, or sometimes they don't come at all. I'm complete prepared for that) ... Now, granted, I play live much more than I do online, so I cannot really back that low-variance statement up with concrete numbers (using PokerTracker for example).

I just wanted to get a gut feel for how bad a -25BB session is, how much worse it can get (sounds like about -100B is rough estimate for a lower bound), and how frequently I will see them. That way, I can be much more mentally prepared to just shrug them off.

Great insights folks - As always ... Thank You!

Fnord

02-16-2005, 06:34 PM

#10 (permalink)

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A couple days ago I was playing in good 4/8 and then 6/12 games at the local B&M. Never took down a pot over maybe 4BB that wasn't split for what must have been 3 or 4 hours. Multiple pots capped pre-flop. Cost me nearly $400 until I turned it around to lose only $230 that day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

02-16-2005, 09:55 PM

#11 (permalink)

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I was down as much as $200 today on Empire.

Today's stats:
3/6 1,239 hands net -$38.50
2/4 312 hands net -$77.00
total -$115.50 with $114.50 of rake paid.

Couldn't beat the rake today. Biggest pots of the day were only $102 & $84 with a bunch of 6xs after that, couldn't catch the cards in the big pots. Got KK 10 times and made $12.50, AKo lost money. Played a lot of hands the best I could and I'm happy with that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

ChezJ

02-16-2005, 10:27 PM

#12 (permalink)

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-25BB of variance is definitely within the noise level as far as i'm concerned. i always buy in with 20-25BB because that's about the most i ever bleed away before i start catching hands. if i ever have to rebuy, i almost always find myself hitting a good patch before dipping below -30BB.

once in a blue moon, the cards will punish me real bad -- meaning i hit a string of big hands but lose to bigger ones each time -- and i'll lose as much as 50BB. it happens, and you gotta expect it, because it is definitely going to happen to you someday. when it does, you carefully review your game, verify that you're not misplaying somehow, then keep plugging away at it, knowing with mathematical certainty that your patience and discipline will pay off eventually... and often sooner than you expect.

ChezJ

Fnord

02-19-2005, 11:07 PM

#13 (permalink)

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I just dropped 50BB in the last hour.

GO ME!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Tripps7

02-19-2005, 11:44 PM

#14 (permalink)

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I am down 20 for the last 45 minutes, and 38 for the weekend.

Luckily I just moved up to 2/4. Sweet timing...

Fnord

02-20-2005, 12:11 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Almost back even for the day.... man I swing like a monkey...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is BB with A

, K

.
5 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Fnord raises, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (5 SB) 6

, J

, 7

(2 players)
Fnord bets, Button raises, Fnord calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6

(2 players)
Fnord checks, Button bets, Fnord calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 2

(2 players)
Fnord checks, Button bets, Fnord calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Results in white below:
Button has Qh Kd (one pair, sixes).
Fnord has Ac Ks (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Fnord wins 8.50 BB.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is SB with 8

, T

.
UTG calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Fnord completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8

, 4

, J

(5 players)
Fnord checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets, Button calls, Fnord raises, BB folds, UTG folds, CO 3-bets, Button folds, Fnord calls.

Turn: (6 BB) T

(2 players)
Fnord checks, CO bets, Fnord raises, CO 3-bets, Fnord caps, CO calls.

River: (14 BB) 7

(2 players)
Fnord bets, CO calls $2.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: 15.41 BB

Results in white below:
CO has 2s Ts (one pair, tens).
Fnord has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
Outcome: Fnord wins 15.41 BB.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

ArcticKnight

02-20-2005, 12:37 AM

#16 (permalink)

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I had a -35BB and -50BB session earlier this week, but a 6 hour +115BB session last night...

-50BB is my limit (at 5/10) and -30 at 10/20 ($600)

After that if I still want to play I enter a NL multitable tourney and relax, knowing I can only lose my entry fee

For me I appraoch it the same as BlackJack. If I'm playing two spots at $25 each, then I quit for the day if Im down $750. If I'm up $1000, I get a marker, cash in $500 and play the rest pretty much the same way. I hate giving back winnings.

I know this has been repeated a gazillion times about anything to do with gambling, but if you can't manage to put a session stop/limit on your losses, you will never be in the black in the long run.

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

Fnord

02-20-2005, 12:41 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcticKnight

For me I appraoch it the same as BlackJack. If I'm playing two spots at $25 each, then I quit for the day if Im down $750. If I'm up $1000, I get a marker, cash in $500 and play the rest pretty much the same way. I hate giving back winnings.

Last I heard most +EV blackjack games are a thing of the past.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcticKnight

I know this has been repeated a gazillion times about anything to do with gambling, but if you can't manage to put a session stop/limit on your losses, you will never be in the black in the long run.

You so silly. Tilt and game conditions are far more important that how much you've happened to lose.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

ArcticKnight

02-20-2005, 01:12 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Last I heard most +EV blackjack games are a thing of the past.

Depending on local rules house has about 1.3% advantage if you are playing basic strategy, so it is -EV. That said, I'm up $23,000 in BJ over last 6 years playing a slighty modified basic strategy, so I'm aware of -EV, but don't care about. I think I noted in another post, though, BJ is really boring. It's autopilot with no decision points.

Plus (and this acknowledges your point of -EV), I have already bucked the odds, so I'm content backing off. I know that I don't have a "secret", if you will, for blackjack strategy, but my money management strategy has worked well. When you can cap your session loss, but not cap your win, there are lots of good things that can happen.

Quote:

You so silly. Tilt and game conditions are far more important that how much you've happened to lose.[/

Tilt = erratic or bad play, which = losing, which = losing money. Great game conditions don't matter if you are on tilt! What am I missing? If tilt didn't result (most times) in losing money, then why would we worry about going on tilt.

I think I know what you are saying: don't leave a good situation if (1) the conditions are right, and (2) you are not on tilt. That said, MOST folks could benefit from some stop loss management, or gambling can get real nasty. Fnord, you have to keep in mind that although you probaly do, not everyone has the discipline to see a good reason to keep playng well into a big session loss.

IMO

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

Chicago_Kid

02-21-2005, 12:03 AM

#19 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

I just wanted to get a gut feel for how bad a -25BB session is, how much worse it can get (sounds like about -100B is rough estimate for a lower bound), and how frequently I will see them. That way, I can be much more mentally prepared to just shrug them off.

These swings really pissed me off when I started working at my limit game a couple months ago. I think I'm a Bit of a stat watcher, rather than just focussing on the game. Starting to make deals with myself not to look at my $$ status more than once an hour.

Funny thing...yesterday I got off to a nice start in 2/4, up around 20BB in the first 300 hands. Then, I gave it all Back and went down aBout the same. I switched taBles and played for a while longer. I was getting ready to quit still down 20BB, and then I won 4-5 Big hands in 15 minutes, and finished up 10BB...left a smile on my face.

"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"

koolmoe

02-21-2005, 10:21 PM

#20 (permalink)

Full House

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

You so silly. Tilt and game conditions are far more important that how much you've happened to lose.

I generally agree with this except for two facts.

1) Some people aren't aware until after the fact that they are tilting
2) Losing lots of money puts many people on tilt.

For people who find after examining their sessions that, after losing a fair amount of money (but within normal variance), they went on to lose a good deal more money making uncharacteristic mistakes, a stop loss can be a useful thing. At least these folks should consider taking a break after a sizable loss to clear their head.

The other consideration is cheating, though this applies more in home game settings than online, IMO.

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