www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,232,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

here's your value-raise

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

LawDude

11-18-2009, 06:42 PM Post subject: here's your value-raise

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

15/30 at Hollywood Park last night, typical limp-fest.

Hero is UTG+1 with 6s5s.

UTG limps, Hero limps, 2 more limpers, button raises, SB and BB call, all the limpers call.

Flop is A82 with 2 spades. Checks to UTG. UTG bets. I call. 1 other call. CO raises. Button 3-bets. SB and BB fold. UTG calls. I cap.

Here's the reasoning. First time around, I am out of position so I am not going going to get a free card. So the only effect of my raise is going to be to potentially drive people out of the pot. I also, however, don't likely have much fold equity-- that flop had to hit someone. What I want to do is get as many people into the pot as possible to up my potential implied odds if I hit. If I only get 1 caller as a result of my raise, I am only getting even money on it when I need 2 1/2 to 1 (my odds of making my flush by the river).

Second time around, however, everyone's basically committed to the pot. So now, I should raise as long as I am getting better than 2 1/2 to 1 odds on my additional bets. And with CO, Button, and UTG likely to call any money I throw in there, I am getting the 2 1/2 to 1.

It isn't a matter of ramming and jamming your flush draw. Raise for value when you are getting value.

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

DoanDiggy

11-18-2009, 07:41 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 536

I really doubt that you are getting 2.5-to-1 here with a 6-high flush draw, especially when the action indicates that someone could have 2 pair or a set.

KoRnholio

11-18-2009, 09:17 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,129

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

In limpfests like this the chances of one of the other 4 players having two spades is definitely not zero.

If the ace on board isn't a spade, I really hate the cap, as Axs is played far more often than other suited hands. If the ace is a spade, it's not as bad, but still marginal at best.

The pot is already pretty large, anyone with any chance at the pot is going to the river anyways. Capping doesn't really do that much for us in terms of implied odds or in fold equity. Especially with the way the action went (Button cold 3betting the flop), at least one person is going to show down their hand at the end no matter what comes.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

LawDude

11-18-2009, 10:16 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Instead of assuming monsters under the bed, we need to put villains on ranges here. I don't doubt that sets/2 pair are some part of those ranges, and that a higher spade draw is also a possibility, but I suspect that you actually stove a reasonable range for each player, you will find that it doesn't drive the odds you need on a raise that much above 2 1/2 to 1 (because there are all sorts of other hands the villains could have as well).

DoanDiggy

11-18-2009, 10:27 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 536

Since you don't specify, I'll assume the A is non-spade.

Hand 0: UTG
Hand 1: you
Hand 2: 2nd caller
Hand 3: CO raiser
Hand 4: Button 3bettor

In my estimation, Hands 0 and 2 and Hands 3 and 4 have similar ranges. I ran 7.5M Monte Carlo simulations:

Code:

Board: Ah 8s 2s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	10.838%  	09.94% 	00.90% 	        763085 	    68762.33   { AQs-A9s, A7s-A3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Q8s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s7s, 85s+, 7s4s, 53s+, 4s3s, ATo-A9o, A7o-A3o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 1: 	09.849%  	09.84% 	00.01% 	        755519 	      414.83   { 6s5s }
Hand 2: 	10.811%  	09.91% 	00.90% 	        760813 	    68985.83   { AQs-A9s, A7s-A3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Q8s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s7s, 85s+, 7s4s, 53s+, 4s3s, ATo-A9o, A7o-A3o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 	34.276%  	32.76% 	01.52% 	       2514198 	   116660.83   { 88, 22, AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As7s, As4s, As3s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 7s4s, 4s3s, AQo-AJo, A8o, A2o }
Hand 4: 	34.225%  	32.71% 	01.52% 	       2510510 	   116447.17   { 88, 22, AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As7s, As4s, As3s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 7s4s, 4s3s, AQo-AJo, A8o, A2o }

I would be very happy to hear where I'm making an error here in my ranges. Oh, and good luck with your excellent equity.

LawDude

11-18-2009, 11:14 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoanDiggy

Code:

Board: Ah 8s 2s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	10.838%  	09.94% 	00.90% 	        763085 	    68762.33   { AQs-A9s, A7s-A3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Q8s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s7s, 85s+, 7s4s, 53s+, 4s3s, ATo-A9o, A7o-A3o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 1: 	09.849%  	09.84% 	00.01% 	        755519 	      414.83   { 6s5s }
Hand 2: 	10.811%  	09.91% 	00.90% 	        760813 	    68985.83   { AQs-A9s, A7s-A3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Q8s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s7s, 85s+, 7s4s, 53s+, 4s3s, ATo-A9o, A7o-A3o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 	34.276%  	32.76% 	01.52% 	       2514198 	   116660.83   { 88, 22, AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As7s, As4s, As3s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 7s4s, 4s3s, AQo-AJo, A8o, A2o }
Hand 4: 	34.225%  	32.71% 	01.52% 	       2510510 	   116447.17   { 88, 22, AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As7s, As4s, As3s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js7s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 7s4s, 4s3s, AQo-AJo, A8o, A2o }

I would be very happy to hear where I'm making an error here in my ranges. Oh, and good luck with your excellent equity.

I haven't even begun to examine this seriously, but just glancing at it, your ranges are way off. Where's AK in the button's range? You seriously think that he's going to raise 22 pre-flop here?

DoanDiggy

11-18-2009, 11:23 PM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 536

Sorry, missed button preflop raise. I'll go over it again in a bit.

Edit: Here is the new result over 12M Monte Carlo simulations:

Hand 0: UTG - any ace/8/2/straight draw/flush draw that saw the flop. Not A8/88/22 because I think those cap the flop.
Hand 1: Hero
Hand 2: MP - any ace/8/2/straight draw/flush draw that saw the flop. Not AJ+/A8/A2/88/22 because I think those raise the flop instead of calling.
Hand 3: CO - AT or better, flush draws Q-high or better.
Hand 4: Button - AQ or better, flush draws Q-high or better.

Code:

  12,059,693  games    74.371 secs   162,155  games/sec

Board: Ah 8s 2s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	10.928%  	10.06% 	00.87% 	       1212984 	   104966.57   { A9s+, A7s-A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, K2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Q8s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Q2s, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s7s, 84s+, 7s4s, 53s, 43s, A9o+, A7o-A2o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 1: 	12.871%  	12.87% 	00.00% 	       1551897 	      296.23   { 6s5s }
Hand 2: 	09.361%  	08.84% 	00.52% 	       1065956 	    62977.40   { ATs-A9s, A7s-A3s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, K2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Q8s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Q2s, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s7s, 84s+, 7s4s, 53s, 43s, ATo-A9o, A7o-A3o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 	30.456%  	28.87% 	01.59% 	       3481859 	   191169.40   { 88, 22, ATs+, As9s, A8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, 4s3s, ATo+, A8o, A2o }
Hand 4: 	36.383%  	34.97% 	01.41% 	       4217769 	   170053.40   { AA, 88, 22, AQs+, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs7s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, 4s3s, AQo+, A8o, A2o }

Your equity is better than my first estimate, but not by much.

Chopper

11-19-2009, 02:52 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

i like it, but i am never shocked to see a higher fRush hit the river, either. no one is folding ANY two spades here. and, since there is no way to tell, i like building the pot even bigger since no one is folding here. in big pots, we MAXX our chances to win them. i think this qualifies since being overflushed is rather rare indeed.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

11-19-2009, 07:44 PM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

Most likely ranges, based on my experience at this level:

Button-- he's almost certainly raising with a big pocket pair or a strong ace. He MIGHT also have suited broadways, but I don't think it's very likely. He doesn't have pocket deuces.

He will continue with (1) a set of aces or 8's, (2) a pair of aces, (3) a strong pocket pair, 9's, 10's, J's, Q's, or K's (these players unfortunately never want to believe the ace hit anyone), or (4) a flush draw. I don't think he made 2 pair on the flop given his raising range.

The limpers may have (1) suited connectors or one gappers, (2) weak pocket pairs, (3) weak aces, (4) suited or unsuited broadways, or (5) assorted trash hands like J8o or even 86o. They will continue with (1) a set of 8's or 2's, (2) 2 pair (not likely unless it is A8 or maybe A2), (3) any pair, (4) any flush draw, or (5) a strong backdoor flush or backdoor straight draw.

Your ranges are off because you don't realize how weak a game this is.

Now, based on THOSE ranges, how much equity do I have?

Muzzard

11-28-2009, 04:39 AM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

cool story bro

Latest Poker News
eugmac	02-10-2012, 10:26 AM WPT Lucky Hearts Poker Open Starts Today in Florida
The World Poker Tour makes its return to the Sunshine State with the WPT Lucky Hearts Poker Open, a non-televised Season X Main Event to take place at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollyw ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 01:34 PM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,232,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

All Other (Limit) Poker

here's your value-raise

Play for FREE and practice your game at...