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euphoricism
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06-17-2006, 01:24 AM
Post subject: Here's an Idea I had about hand ranges:
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Lets say for sake of example a player in middle position has a PFR of 20. If we assume it is the top 20% of his hands, then we'll show an immediate profit if we only play a smaller % of hands against him.
If villain raises 20%, and we reraise our top 15%, we'll have a 60% edge over the long term. In other words, if we could play this guy heads up forever, him only being dealt his top 20% of his hands, and us only playing our top 15% we'd win 63% of the time. Even if we never looked at our cards, just went to showdown.
We'd have a big edge long term.
So why don't we just list out exactly what our opponents hand ranges are, and then look at what hand range we should play against them? Our opponent raises 20%? Well, we look over at our 15% chart, and play any hand in there.
This is a very simplistic method of exploitation.
It's not incredibly earth-shattering material. We all know that if a guy with a 4% PFR raises, we better have the goods. We also know that if a guy raises 40% of his hands, we can play a lot more hands.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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You only figured this out now?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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No, I only wrote it out to try and generate some discussion on my board, now ;p
I was thinking of making a party mod and putting the hand rages directly on the board..
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Yeah, euph, that's the way you do it, but you need to change the 15% to 10%. The hands in the 11-15% range are underdogs to the opponent's range. Plus he gets to cap his highest holdings. You may not lose money overall on the top 15%, but you should lose money on the bottom third of that range. Even the hands at the bottom of the 10% range may be unprofitable to 3-bet given opponent's option of capping.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Wouldn't a good player mix his or her raises up. Just saying there would be a counter strategy to your strategy. Not that i would know what that woud be. Such knowledge is not nesessary at 1-2 and lower.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Wouldn't a good player mix his or her raises up. Just saying there would be a counter strategy to your strategy. Not that i would know what that woud be. Such knowledge is not nesessary at 1-2 and lower.
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Overwhelmingly, no.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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I really don't think there is much point in mixing up your raising hands in limit. Maybe if it allows you to push certain people off their hands at higher stakes. In general, though, deceptive value is overwhelmed by making a mathematically bad play.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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So, hand ranges written on the party background. Worth doing, or no? I'd probably throw on odds chart on there too just.. well.. because it cant hurt and there is space 
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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The one chart I do use when I play is a list that groups all the hand strengths as I estimate them at a shorthanded table, 2% at a time. I take my estimate of a raiser's pfr% at that position, and 3-bet the top half of his range having no other info.
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