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TylerK
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06-29-2005, 10:08 PM
Post subject: Help me figure out why I suck
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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I've been hemorrhaging money lately at Party 2/4 and I'm trying to figure out whether I'm running bad or whether I'm doing something horribly wrong. Are there any general things (PT stats, etc) that you guys would suggest I look at?
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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How many BB's and hands are we talking about here? (Assuming you don't mind sharing that is)
Also what are the winrates for your big hands?
It's really unlikely you can't beat 2/4, you're probably running bad.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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My suggestion and probably the best one you will get....Quit posting in the whine thread. Thinking about and posting about bad beats can only accomplish one thing and that is putting you on tilt and making you play worse. I would suggest maybe moving down to 1/2 and whoring some bonuses just long enough to get yourself back in a good state of mind for playing poker and then move back up to 2/4 and win your money back.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Down about 75BB in the last week, about 2500 hands.
I'm up only about 25BB for my last 5k hands.
For those 2500 hands or so:
Code:
starting_hand times_dealt win_pct amt_won co_bb_hand wtsd wsd
AA 14 85.71 166.79 2.97 58.33 71.42
AKs 10 50.00 62.25 1.55 66.66 66.66
AKo 29 44.82 29.26 0.25 67.85 47.36
AQs 11 36.36 3.00 0.06 45.45 40.00
AJs 7 100.00 110.00 3.92 42.85 100.00
KK 7 42.85 -19.50 -0.69 85.71 33.33
KQs 6 66.66 9.00 0.37 40.00 50.00
QQ 12 41.66 30.00 0.62 63.63 57.14
JJ 13 46.15 43.00 0.82 30.76 25.00
TT 9 22.22 -75.00 -2.08 66.66 16.66
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
My suggestion and probably the best one you will get....Quit posting in the whine thread. Thinking about and posting about bad beats can only accomplish one thing and that is putting you on tilt and making you play worse. I would suggest maybe moving down to 1/2 and whoring some bonuses just long enough to get yourself back in a good state of mind for playing poker and then move back up to 2/4 and win your money back.
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You're probably right about posting in that thread. It makes me feel better though. 
As for moving down, I'm already overrolled for 2/4, there's probably no good reason to move down.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TylerK
Down about 75BB in the last week, about 2500 hands.
I'm up only about 25BB for my last 5k hands.
For those 2500 hands or so:
Code:
starting_hand times_dealt win_pct amt_won co_bb_hand wtsd wsd
AA 14 85.71 166.79 2.97 58.33 71.42
AKs 10 50.00 62.25 1.55 66.66 66.66
AKo 29 44.82 29.26 0.25 67.85 47.36
AQs 11 36.36 3.00 0.06 45.45 40.00
AJs 7 100.00 110.00 3.92 42.85 100.00
KK 7 42.85 -19.50 -0.69 85.71 33.33
KQs 6 66.66 9.00 0.37 40.00 50.00
QQ 12 41.66 30.00 0.62 63.63 57.14
JJ 13 46.15 43.00 0.82 30.76 25.00
TT 9 22.22 -75.00 -2.08 66.66 16.66
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As much as losing 75 bets over 2500 hands sucks it doesn't mean anything and it's not that bad. 75 bets is certainly nothing to be concerned about.
Based on that information it does looks like you are running bad, so give it some time before worrying.
For an idea of just how irrelevant your results after 5k hands are work out a 95% confidence interval for your winrate.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Phyl
For an idea of just how irrelevant your results after 5k hands are work out a 95% confidence interval for your winrate.
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...
math is hard? dumb it down for me.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Phyl
As much as losing 75 bets over 2500 hands sucks it doesn't mean anything and it's not that bad. 75 bets is certainly nothing to be concerned about.
Based on that information it does looks like you are running bad, so give it some time before worrying.
For an idea of just how irrelevant your results after 5k hands are work out a 95% confidence interval for your winrate.
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Yeah, if I had known it was just for 75 BB and 2500 hands, I wouldn't have made any suggestions except maybe, "75 BB is nothing and those swings will happen fairly often, so deal with it and don't freak out"  When you start running bad to the tune of -400 BB over the course of 20,000 hands it might be time to start worrying about your play.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Phyl
As much as losing 75 bets over 2500 hands sucks it doesn't mean anything and it's not that bad. 75 bets is certainly nothing to be concerned about.
Based on that information it does looks like you are running bad, so give it some time before worrying.
For an idea of just how irrelevant your results after 5k hands are work out a 95% confidence interval for your winrate.
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Yeah, if I had known it was just for 75 BB and 2500 hands, I wouldn't have made any suggestions except maybe, "75 BB is nothing and those swings will happen fairly often, so deal with it and don't freak out" When you start running bad to the tune of -400 BB over the course of 20,000 hands it might be time to start worrying about your play. |
Yeah, it actually felt a LOT worse until I actually pulled the stats. I was surprised to find I was slightly positive over my last 5k hands.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Tyler, one day this weekend try and play 2000 hands in one day. It will take about 8 hours or so quadding. Don't stop playing until you hit 2000. All you have to do is do that one time, and you realize how small a sample that really is.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Tyler, one day this weekend try and play 2000 hands in one day. It will take about 8 hours or so quadding. Don't stop playing until you hit 2000. All you have to do is do that one time, and you realize how small a sample that really is.
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I might just kill myself before I finish that, but I'll give it a try. 
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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