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arborman
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09-05-2007, 05:18 AM
Post subject: Heavy turn action
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Longhand limit game at Stars
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A , J .
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.
Flop: (12.40 SB) J , T, Q (5 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls.
Turn: (9.20 BB) K (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero ???
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Gosh I never played Full Ring too much but I cannot say I like your PFR. I also do not like your flop raise, there's no protection possible.
I fold when facing 2 cold on the turn with the BTN still to act who raised over 2 players.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Just call pre-flop. Your equity edge isn't big enough to be worth defining your hand. Buying the button is nice, but with 4! limpers it's going to be hard to keep suited hands out of this pot.
The flop raise is spewy on a such an ugly board. If you didn't build such a big pot it might be possible to get out now.
Turn is an easy fold for 2 more. The 3-bet is usually a flush, if this was live it would almost always be a flush but online players are that special kind of retarded to 3-bet a naked Ace here. Best case, you're trying to hang onto half the pot or less.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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I raise this PF too and end up with the button most of the time.
What is the flop raise for? Pretty much any piece of this flop has odds to call it.
Easy turn fold. Best case you're splitting, but you're drawing dead most of the time here.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Raised preflop for value more than anything - it was a very fishy table (~70%-80% flop percentage)and the limpers ahead of me were of the 'any face card' variety. If I got lucky I'd buy the button, if not I would still be ahead of most of them.
Ditto the flop raise - I was thinking it was for value. Middle pair and an overcard give me ~3.5 outs (with a coordinated board). 3 more outs for the non-heart kings give me a total of 6.5. 6.5 outs gives me about 6.5:1 odds on a draw to the nuts. As such a raise for value wasn't totally out of line (roughly even odds with the pot at ~13.5 SB). I also figured that if I did hit, the other players would be unable to let go of their cards, so there were some decent implied odds as well.
With that board nobody was likely to fold, but I figured I might buy an out or two from any weaker draws, and possibly make bottom pair or a lower gutshot fold. The raise had a slim chance of buying me a free turn card as well, though button probably wouldn't let that happen.
Glad to hear agreement with the turn fold (I folded it), but wasn't sure if it was the right choice.
Results in white:
The remaining players capped turn. River was a 9s, they capped again and split the pot with straights, 9-k. Both of them had unsuited kx (k8 and k9 I think) Ugh.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arborman
Ditto the flop raise - I was thinking it was for value. Middle pair and an overcard give me ~3.5 outs (with a coordinated board). 3 more outs for the non-heart kings give me a total of 6.5. 6.5 outs gives me about 6.5:1 odds on a draw to the nuts. As such a raise for value wasn't totally out of line (roughly even odds with the pot at ~13.5 SB). I also figured that if I did hit, the other players would be unable to let go of their cards, so there were some decent implied odds as well.
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This is so wrong.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
This is so wrong.
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Ok, tell me why.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
470,243 games 10.386 secs 45,276 games/sec
Board: Jh Th Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.321% 17.22% 04.10% 80970 19288.83 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 38.959% 35.13% 03.82% 165218 17983.83 { 99+, ATs+, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs+, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QTs+, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 39.720% 35.62% 04.10% 167523 19259.33 { 99+, ATs+, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs+, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QTs+, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Against 2 hands with any 2 hearts or any 2 cards nine or higher.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Sure, but most of the 'any two hearts' hands were extremely unlikely (though not impossible) in this hand. My reading of SSHE suggests that even in pots where you are probably behind (like this one) it can still be +EV to raise, if it's a big pot and you have a decent chance to win. 17% to win and another 4% to tie make a total of 21% to take half or more of the pot. Given that my raise would be matched by more than one person, it seemed a decent or at worst marginal play to me.
I knew I was the underdog, but I also knew that if I did complete my draw then I'd be taking down a big pot. The turn didn't go my way (or didn't appear to anyways). I would have called it down with the second nut, swearing all the way, but the 3 bet made me fold.
All that said, I'm definitely still learning, so advice is welcome. In retrospect I'd probably call the flop if it happened again.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I think you made the perfect fold to the 2bets back to you on the flop. So well done on that. But you've also made some mistakes here that we all made as beginners. There's a couple of concepts that don't seem to be understood.
First is the preflop raise. When you build a big pot preflop, this makes is correct for people with weak hands to call more bets on the flop, because they are now getting better odds on their money. That's a good thing vs. many opponents if your cards are suited and/or connected or paired, because you want players to keep putting money in for those occasions when you make a straight, flush, or set. These hands are very strong and are normally the best hand when you get one. THe other nice thing about playing these hands multiway is you're going to know right away on the flop whether you like your hand or not. Imagine the flop comes QJT like it did here. If you've got 55 you know your hand is junk and you can throw it away on the flop.
But it's a bad thing to raise preflop vs. many opponents if you're cards' value is based on their rank alone. AJ0 is one such hand. These hands tend to win by making a pair with a good kicker, not straights, flushes, or sets. So when you do hit the flop, you want a small pot where you can hopefully raise and protect your hand. Even if you can't make it two bets to see the turn (say if the flop is checked to you) at least you're opponents are getting worse odds on calling one bet.
Say you have AJ0 and the flop comes AT7, do you really want to give good odds to people to call a flop bet with KQ or 87? In either case you will lose if a J or 8 comes on the turn or river. So it's best to keep the pot small and force these people to call with worse odds.
So although it may sound funny, with four limpers ahead of you it's better to raise a hand like 98s or 55 than AJo.
The second concept you need to think about is working out your chances of winning on this flop. The percentages Fnord posted provide a good summary of this. Beginners tend to be overoptimistic about their winning chances, which is why so many people in small stakes games go to the river with poor hands.
Here, with 5 others in the pot, it is very unlikely your hand will win unless it improves on the turn or river. First, there are three straight cards out, making it very likely someone is drawing to a straight if they don't already have one. To beat K9, you need a King. Just to tie AK, you need a King. Second, there are two flush cards out, meaning someone could be drawing to a flush. So if the Kh comes, you may beat the person with K9, but lose to someone with a flush. Third, there's an overcard to your pair, so anyone with a Q is beating you right now. And if you are behind, there's a good chance your Ace outs are worthless since they would give anyone with a King a straight! So you might be trying to beat a Q with just the two J outs - not a very promising prospect.
So let's assume you are behind to someone with KQ, but Kc comes on the turn. Now you have made a straight and are beating KQ, but you're still only splitting the pot with anyone else who has an Ace. Moreover, you can still lose to a flush draw if a heart comes on the river. Or, if someone has a set of tens, say, you will still lose if a T,J,Q, or K comes on the river and tie if an Ace comes. And of course you will still lose to KQ if another King or Queen comes.
So all told you can't be too optimistic on this flop, and you certainly shouldn't raise. Further, the turn card can dramatically change things one way or another. If it pairs the board, you may be drawing dead to someone with a FH (and should probably fold to a bet). If it's a heart, you may be drawing dead to a flush (and should probably fold to a bet), or may lose if another heart comes on the river. If it's an Ace, you make two pair but have only 4 outs to beat a straight (and should probably fold to two or more bets). If it's a King, you make a straight but could be tied with one or more players, and even then someone could still draw out on the river against you with a flush or FH. Even if it's a Jack you can lose. So even though each of these possibilities may be small individually, meaning you should raise this hand heads up, against 5 opponents the chance of at least one of them being true makes your AJ a very marginal hand on this flop. You might call (not raise) one more bet on the flop, but unless a non-heart K comes on the turn you should probably fold to any heavy action (as you did here).
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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To put it more succinctly, there are too few ways to win and too many ways to lose to be raising this flop.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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OK, works for me. I was following Miller's preflop recommendations with my raise (though he himself downplays them to focus on postflop play). The flop raise was likely overoptimistic, though I knew I was behind.
One of my biggest leaks, and one that Miller highlights endlessly, is the tendency to fold strong hands too often, losing big pots. Of course, it is definitely possible to overcompensate and spew with hopeless hands. I'm still working out the balance.
In this hand I folded the best hand because of the 3bet turn for fear of what seemed like an obvious flush- thus losing a 22.4 BB pot, which had me wondering if I had made the wrong decision with the fold. It would have cost me 7 more BB to find out if I was wrong or right though, and a flush did seem likely (especially from the button). Without the 3bet I would have called the pot down.
I hadn't considered the flop raise as a mistake, but I can see it as such now.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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I can see the point of those that advocate a flat call preflop but you should still raise regardless of wether anyone will fold or not. You likely have the best hand so why not put money in the pot when you are in front. Can't see anything wrong with your flop raise. then you gave up on the turn when you were clearly beaten.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Raising AJ on a flop like KJ4 is very different from QJT. SSHE gives broad general case advice and points out the big holes in people who learned poker from earlier material then play against loose/passive and loose/aggressive oppoonents.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arborman
I'm still working out the balance.
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Me too.
Paying more attention and narrowing ranges (or knowing when to apply a wide range) helps a lot.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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I will say i feel raising the turn was a little over zealos.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
I can see the point of those that advocate a flat call preflop but you should still raise regardless of wether anyone will fold or not. You likely have the best hand so why not put money in the pot when you are in front. Can't see anything wrong with your flop raise. then you gave up on the turn when you were clearly beaten.
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You don't win pots by having the best hand preflop or the best hand on the flop. You win by having the best hand on the river. The task on the flop is working out what your chances of winning on the river are, which isn't the same as figuring out if you're winning on the flop. It's the same reason you play out your strong draws - even when you're behind on the flop there's a reasonable chance you'll be ahead by the river.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
You win by having the best hand on the river.
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...or getting everyone to fold. Even in the epicly retarded live games I play in, winning without showdown sometimes is a pretty core part of my gameplan.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
...or getting everyone to fold.
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True, but in a full ring game where >50% of people see the flop that's almost never happening...
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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I had no doubt this hand was going to a showdown, so my play was based on my odds of winning, and the potential payoff if I did win. My plan was to check-call or check-fold the turn if it didn't go my way. It half did (with the king), so I called the first bet, but it was a heart and the action chased me off (especially the 3bet from the button).
I posted it because it was one of those very frustrating hands where the wild action on the turn (or even the river) makes you fold, then the showdown reveals that you had actually won the hand but been chased off it by a couple of maniacs. I'm glad to see that nobody else would have called the turn in the hand either.
And in the same situation I'm not raising the flop again.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Another key here is to think ahead one street as each street flows into the next.
Last night I limped behind 2 limpers with   in a lukewarm game.
Flop comes   
Checked to me and I bet as last to act, BB calls, everyone else folds.
Turn is a 
I bet, BB check/raises and I tank....
I'm thinking, is he making a play here? Would I call the river on a Q or T? Can I make a tight laydown here, the pot isn't very big? After thinking about it, I decide it's probably something like trips or luckbox straight or maybe a better hand that thinks it's bluffing me and call the turn to make him follow through, raise a flushing river, but decide that I'm probably going to fold a Q or T river to him this time barring more information.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
I can see the point of those that advocate a flat call preflop but you should still raise regardless of wether anyone will fold or not. You likely have the best hand so why not put money in the pot when you are in front. Can't see anything wrong with your flop raise. then you gave up on the turn when you were clearly beaten.
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You don't win pots by having the best hand preflop or the best hand on the flop. You win by having the best hand on the river. The task on the flop is working out what your chances of winning on the river are, which isn't the same as figuring out if you're winning on the flop. It's the same reason you play out your strong draws - even when you're behind on the flop there's a reasonable chance you'll be ahead by the river. |
That logic can't bw argued with as we don't win by having the worst hand at the river but you are looseing money if you don't put money in the pot when we are infront.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
So although it may sound funny, with four limpers ahead of you it's better to raise a hand like 98s or 55 than AJo.
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oh, i guess i was doing it wrong then
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
That logic can't bw argued with as we don't win by having the worst hand at the river but you are looseing money if you don't put money in the pot when we are infront.
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1) We don't know we're ahead on the flop in a six-way pot with middle pair and three straight cards out. We may be ahead but if we're behind it's hard to catch up since so many of our outs are tainted (i.e., could improve us but make someone else an even better hand).
2) Even if we are ahead, there are a lot of ways we could fall behind, and often we'll be drawing dead if we do fall behind.
3) Yes many of your opponents are loose and goofy, and yes you will occasionally fold the best hand by playing tight, and yes that sucks when it happens. But in the long run it will work out to your advantage because you won't be paying off other people's big hands whereas they'll be paying off yours.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
That logic can't bw argued with as we don't win by having the worst hand at the river but you are looseing money if you don't put money in the pot when we are infront.
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1) We don't know we're ahead on the flop in a six-way pot with middle pair and three straight cards out. We may be ahead but if we're behind it's hard to catch up since so many of our outs are tainted (i.e., could improve us but make someone else an even better hand).
2) Even if we are ahead, there are a lot of ways we could fall behind, and often we'll be drawing dead if we do fall behind.
3) Yes many of your opponents are loose and goofy, and yes you will occasionally fold the best hand by playing tight, and yes that sucks when it happens. But in the long run it will work out to your advantage because you won't be paying off other people's big hands whereas they'll be paying off yours. |
I prefer to play laggy but confess that i am still learning the style. After farther thinking i'm thinking a raise is a little spewy on the flop. Honestly when i first posted i didn't even notice how many people saw the flop. With that many people at the very least someone has a queen. There is also a fair chance that someone has a str8.
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