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Fnord
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06-02-2005, 10:36 PM
Post subject: Good spot for a check/raise bluff?
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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MP2 is kinda TAggy 17.5%/10.5% high AF over 363
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter
Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with Q , K .
UTG calls, Fnord raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) 7, 3 , 2 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Fnord bets, MP2 raises, BB folds, UTG folds, Fnord calls.
Turn: (6.16 BB) A (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets, Fnord ???
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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i like it.
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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I really like a check/raise here even though it is something I would never think of doing.
The most likely hand for him to have is a pocket pair and he'll fold that to a raise. The only hands I can think of him having that he wont fold are sets or a flush draw which will ruin this play occasionally. But the bluff only has to work about 25% of the time so I think it's +EV.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
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Cold called preflop with those stats...how do you think he plays AQ/AJ preflop? I assume he 3bets AK, but what about these?
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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You will obv fold to a 3bet here.
I assume you MUST bet the river regardless.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Room
I assume you MUST bet the river regardless.
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Really?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Phyl
But the bluff only has to work about 25% of the time so I think it's +EV.
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How do you figure?
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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You're bluffing, you need him to fold a better hand than yours. If you check to him, he can check and show his pocket 44 for free (being slightly facetious here) to take it down.
How would/did you play it - if you c/r and he calls, are you giving up on the bluff and checking the river? If yes, what would be your reasoning?
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Room
How would/did you play it - if you c/r and he calls, are you giving up on the bluff and checking the river? If yes, what would be your reasoning?
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What do you think my fold equity is on a river bet? A thinking player is MUCH more likely to fold to the turn c/r than the river bet. I don't think the turn bet is a no-brainer either way.
For what it's worth, I check/folded the turn, then looking back at the hand made me think...
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
What do you think my fold equity is on a river bet? A thinking player is MUCH more likely to fold to the turn c/r than the river bet. I don't think the turn bet is a no-brainer either way.
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I wish I could come up with a number here but at 3/6, I feel like folding equity is pretty close to 0 on the majority of hands - and I rarely make plays like this because most players DON'T think. However, I think you're right. If he's tight, he should be folding to your c/r - but SINCE he's tight, he will likely check behind on the river allowing him to show for free.
I'm likely putting him on PP since he CC preflop (tt, 99). ATo, AJo maybe, but tight/aggressive players aren't the first cold callers and will likely reraise AJ and up.
I think you're beat on the turn, but a turn c/r might have gotten a better, non-A hand, to fold.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Room
I think you're beat on the turn, but a turn c/r might have gotten a better, non-A hand, to fold.
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I know I'm beat, possibly even drawing dead, which makes it a great spot to bluff.
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I know I'm beat, possibly even drawing dead, which makes it a great spot to bluff.
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I agree 100%, I'm more concerned to know if we are leading the river if he calls our turn c/r.
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Phyl
But the bluff only has to work about 25% of the time so I think it's +EV.
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How do you figure? |
Time to make myself look like an idiot...
21.8% right?
7.16/2 = 3.58
100/4.58 = 21.8
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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You're risking 2 bets to win a 7BB pot
2/7 = .28.6% as a pure bluff. Less if we think a K or Q might be good.
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
You're risking 2 bets to win a 7BB pot
2/7 = .28.6% as a pure bluff. Less if we think a K or Q might be good.
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Then shouldn't this equal zero?
28.6 x 7 = 200.2
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71.4 x 2 = 142.8
= 57.4
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Hmmm...
When we win we net about 7, when we lose we lose 2 bets.
Win: X * 7.
Lose(1 -X) * -2.
Break even is:
X * 7 + ((1 - X) * -2) = 0
X * 7 = (1 - X) * 2
7X = 2 + -2X
9X = 2
X = 0.22
Yup, you're right...
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Win: X * 7.
Lose(1 -X) * -2.
Break even is:
X * 7 + ((1 - X) * -2) = 0
X * 7 = (1 - X) * 2
7X = 2 + -2X
9X = 2
X = 0.22
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Hahaha, I like my way better. Your calculations make my head explode.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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What can I say. I went to high school in New Hampshire where I learned algeber and how to take an ideaer then build and manipulate formulers from my ideaer.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
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Can you explain your way phyl?
I don't get it at all. I follow Fnord's math fine.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Can you explain your way phyl?
I don't get it at all. I follow Fnord's math fine.
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I can try.
7.16/2 = 3.58
The amount we lose goes into the amount we win 3.58 times so to breakeven we can lose 3.58 times for every time we win.
3.58 to 1 is the same as 1 in 4.58. So to find 1/4.58 we divide 100 by 4.58 and get 21.8%.
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Element187
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 802
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btw.. i hate that show webster... wait where is your avatar from?
Fnord.. i dont like the bluff in this situation, villian likes his hand, if you check raise him, he will call you down.
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"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls
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Phyl
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 396
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Element187
btw.. i hate that show webster... wait where is your avatar from?
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My avatar?
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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I think it is a good spot to c/r bluff, but a call of your raise doesn't always mean you're beat. He could also have a flush draw (QhJh maybe). Seems like nobody takes free cards anymore...
I can't find a compelling reason to bet the river if a blank hits, but I'd consider calling a bet if the river isn't a heart.
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