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KoRnholio

11-18-2009, 08:11 PM Post subject: A good problem to have

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

MP1 is runing 26/11/4.0 over a small sample. BTN is kinda fishy, 37/7/0.7 40% W2SD, 50% W$@SD (145 hands).

MP1 very likely has a flush here, though a set is possible. BTN has a pretty wide range, could easily have like J8 (top pair*) here.

If I check, MP1 will bet here 100% of the time, BTN will call 80%+. MP1 may or may not 3bet my raise, probably not as the table has generally been loose, but passive.

If I bet out, MP1 is very likely to raise (with either a set or any flush), not sure if BTN will cold call 2, though the pot would now be 12BB.

(Paradise) $1.00/$2.00 Limit Hold'em - 10 players - View hand 375215
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is UTG+1 with T

1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, BTN calls, SB calls, BB checks

Flop: (7 SB) 2

(7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, BTN bets, SB raises, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, BTN calls, SB folds, Hero calls

Turn: (9 BB) 4

(3 players)
Hero... Leads-3bets or check-raises?

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

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ponyboy

11-19-2009, 12:59 AM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 379

Considering MP1 check raised on the flop, I'd check it again expecting those two to build a nice pot without even having to raise and hopefully they will cap it themselves and you can just call down.

I'd love to see one of those guys have something like KJ/K9/K8 with the K of clubs which is entirely possible.

Chopper

11-19-2009, 01:57 AM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

i think i c/r. if mp bets, btn calls that and we get to raise and get them both. if we are lucky enough, mp will 3bet for us and THEN btn is more likely to call another 2 when we can cap and really shove it up his a**.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

KoRnholio

11-19-2009, 05:29 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

Good thoughts. I didn't put the button on a very strong hand, probably a top pair (with or without a club), so I don't think he's ever raising MP's turn bet.

At the time I thought a check-raise would look scarier to these guys, letting them perhaps get away cheap. I got greedy and lead out. MP raised, BTN folded, I 3bet, MP called down. Didn't get to see his cards because Paradise sucks that way

I was basically banking on BTN having a club worthy of cold calling 2 bets, and then 1 more, in a large pot. Given that he folded, he probably didn't have a club. I think had I check raised the action would have gone: MP bets, BTN calls, I raise, MP calls, BTN folds (total of 3 bets in on the turn).

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Chopper

11-19-2009, 09:12 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

but clubs are going nowhere to any action. and, sets wont fold either. so, i am banking on one of those hands being in there with me.

but, i tend to overplay the nuts.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

LawDude

11-19-2009, 10:51 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 940

I don't think it is going to make that much of a difference long-run, but I suspect that this is one of those rare cases where you really want to just make a direct read and put villain on a hand rather than a range.

If the 2 most likely hands are flush and set, I would think you would want to bet-raise against a good flush and check-raise against a set or a baby flush. Because I suspect with all this betting, the set or baby flush is going to get the point and slow down if you lead the turn.

Bottom line, you're always guessing here. Take an educated guess and go with it.

KoRnholio

11-20-2009, 05:08 AM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

I think you're right lawdude, there isn't really an easy answer here without any real reads. I made the assumption that BTN was a donk chaser and would call 2 cold with top pair and/or a single club and went from there.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

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