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Games getting tougher??

  
 
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Nehmer
Old 02-23-2006, 09:34 PM     Post subject: Games getting tougher?? #1 (permalink)  
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So over the past 3 months, I've been in a bit of a rut. Before December, I had a win rate of slightly below 2 BB/100 at the 3/6 level of play over about 300,000 hands. Over my last about 110,000 hands though, I have averaged a meager 0.42 BB/100. Over this period of time, I have had multiple 100 BB downswings including two 200+ BB downswings. Now, I have spent quite a bit of time looking through my PT database and can't find much of anything that I seem to be doing different lately. My VPIP/PFR numbers have not changed hardly at all, nor have my Attempt to steal blinds, folded blinds to steal, aggression factor, or seemingly anything else. Since these are fairly large sample sizes, it seems like the most likely reason for this is that the games are tougher than they were last year. Has anybody else noticed that the games are getting increasingly more difficult? I can't figure out a good way of determining this as you can't really just look at average pot sizes or seen flop percents. If they have been getting tougher, do you think that it is reasonable to assume they will continue to get tougher in the coming years until eventually only very great poker players will be able to beat even the 3/6 or 5/10 games or possibly even 2/4?
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Xanadu
Old 02-23-2006, 09:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I haven't seen this myself, but it is reasonable to expect the games to get tougher. Most fish are only going to lose so much before they find another hobby. And most of the fish that are going to take up online poker probably have already. And those that do stick around will probably get better not worse. The window of opportunity will not be there forever.
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mike4066
Old 02-23-2006, 11:22 PM #3 (permalink)  
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are you on party? if so the 3/6 action moved to the 6max tables.
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Fnord
Old 02-23-2006, 11:32 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike4066
The 3/6 action moved to the 6max tables.
Although the game is still soft, don't under-estimate the impact of the rake. Back several months ago I had to use some very online specific lines to destroy the game as soundly as I did.
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-24-2006, 12:19 AM     Post subject: Re: Games getting tougher?? #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
Has anybody else noticed that the games are getting increasingly more difficult? I can't figure out a good way of determining this as you can't really just look at average pot sizes or seen flop percents. If they have been getting tougher, do you think that it is reasonable to assume they will continue to get tougher in the coming years until eventually only very great poker players will be able to beat even the 3/6 or 5/10 games or possibly even 2/4?
Since the VIP Promotion came out I think it may have afftected the games some. And, I agree with Mike that the 6 max games ARE where its at.

To become and maintain being a Profesional Poker Player, we MUST adapt. So what you never played 6 max in the past? You can't let that affect what you do in the future or even right now. You have to follow the fish, and right now the fist are at 6 max. I could have told you 2 months ago (and I believe I did) that 6 max is the place to be.

On Fnord's point, the rake is definately a factor. Why haven't you moved up man? Playing 3/6 for a living BLOWS ass and it doesnt take much more skill (if any) to play at a higher level. You don't even have to stay at Party Poker either to get your hands in.

You need to come into ventrillo we can talk about this more.


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Nehmer
Old 02-24-2006, 04:46 AM     Post subject: Re: Games getting tougher?? #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehmer
Has anybody else noticed that the games are getting increasingly more difficult? I can't figure out a good way of determining this as you can't really just look at average pot sizes or seen flop percents. If they have been getting tougher, do you think that it is reasonable to assume they will continue to get tougher in the coming years until eventually only very great poker players will be able to beat even the 3/6 or 5/10 games or possibly even 2/4?
Since the VIP Promotion came out I think it may have afftected the games some. And, I agree with Mike that the 6 max games ARE where its at.

To become and maintain being a Profesional Poker Player, we MUST adapt. So what you never played 6 max in the past? You can't let that affect what you do in the future or even right now. You have to follow the fish, and right now the fist are at 6 max. I could have told you 2 months ago (and I believe I did) that 6 max is the place to be.

On Fnord's point, the rake is definately a factor. Why haven't you moved up man? Playing 3/6 for a living BLOWS ass and it doesnt take much more skill (if any) to play at a higher level. You don't even have to stay at Party Poker either to get your hands in.

You need to come into ventrillo we can talk about this more.
I do need to quit being lazy and get a microphone and learn how to set up ventrillo one of these days. I don't however consider myself to be a professional poker player or really want to be one. I just decided to take a year off after graduating college to improve my game enough that it'll always be a decent suplemental income once I do get a real job. I haven't moved up because when I tried 5/10, I played about a month of barely above break-even poker at a time when 3/6 was working really well for me. I had actually just decided to try moving up again before my current funk began and then almost did again when I won the party poker steps challenge a few weeks ago, but I always seem to hit a major downswing right as I'm about to make the step up. I guess I'll try moving to 6-max again, but I just haven't ever liked that style of play much in the past when I've tried it even though I've done fairly good. There is also the fact that I don't think I can manage 4-tabling 6-max, while I'm capable of 5 or 6 tabling full ring to consider too.
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euphoricism
Old 02-24-2006, 01:03 PM #7 (permalink)  
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The 5/10 6max game does appear tougher.

It seems like the fish are playing 10/20. The tables are infinitely better at 10/20
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ihategnomes
Old 02-24-2006, 02:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Everynight I find 5/10 tables with perfect table selection. Maybe we have a different version of party
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
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pokerfanatic
Old 02-24-2006, 04:58 PM #9 (permalink)  
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No, Euph just doesn't have the same table selection that he likes, I have a different type, you probably have a type you like, whatever we all have little differences in what we look for and what we can make the most money playing.

I think tables are fine when he thinks they suck... the times you play will also effect the tables, play happy hour is going to suck at 5/10 no matter where you look unless you get off the wall lucky, during prime times table selection is slightly bettor...

Turning off PA Hud might help some in when deciding tables have gone bad... I have seen many players in my PT database that it has as 20/10s playing like 40/25s; I think 6max is more session oriented then full ring... so you have to keep that in mind...

I do however believe that FR is all but dead right now, even 2/4 FR will eventfully become a bad game to be playing since they added 6max, however it seemed to me that the 2/4 6max was not exactly the softest 2/4 game around yet… I’m thinking a lot of the taggs at stars 2/4, UB 2/4 and other big sites moved to pty…
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Hate
Old 02-24-2006, 07:57 PM #10 (permalink)  
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You can use PA Hud safely on party? (sorry for the blatant offtopic)
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pokerfanatic
Old 02-24-2006, 09:18 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hate
You can use PA Hud safely on party? (sorry for the blatant offtopic)
Of course Poker Ace hasn't been baned...
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euphoricism
Old 02-24-2006, 11:49 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ihategnomes
Everynight I find 5/10 tables with perfect table selection. Maybe we have a different version of party
Lots of 30/20s, lots of 40/20s. They do not good games make for me.
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ihategnomes
Old 02-25-2006, 03:14 AM #13 (permalink)  
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We must play different levels of 5/10. I can always find a 60/10, 60/5 or something fish to sit on my right.
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
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euphoricism
Old 02-25-2006, 08:51 AM #14 (permalink)  
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I will rephrase -- when I find a 60/10, YOURE ALREADY THERE!@#$@#!

;]

Nah, I've played 10/20 enough to see the tables there. They are farking awesome. I'm probably just viewing the 5/10 tables in "relative terms". Relative to the 10/20 tables, the 5/10 ones suck lol
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ihategnomes
Old 02-25-2006, 09:19 AM #15 (permalink)  
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I dunno, maybe your not looking hard enough. A lot of the time I am finding 3/6 quality tables. The fish tend to be a little less passive and the aggressive douchebags tend to be more aggressive with a bigger bag of douche than at 3/6, but I am definately seeing a lot of good tables. Monday and Tuesday the tables do run quite a bit tighter.
Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
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midas06
Old 02-25-2006, 10:13 AM #16 (permalink)  
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I read in someone's blog that the 5/10 tables and the 10/20 tables are easier than 15/30. Is this true?
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euphoricism
Old 02-25-2006, 04:05 PM #17 (permalink)  
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I played a little 15/30 full before the party upgrade and the tables tended to be rocktastic. Once in a while youd find a few gems, but they were by FAR the exception.

With 20/40 6max up, the games might have gotten softer.
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ArcticKnight
Old 02-25-2006, 09:05 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Just speaking from a Party 6 max perspective, I find 10/20 easier than 5/10. I also find 15/30 quite polarized.

The games are either much tougher than 10/20 or much easier.

Last night I was at the Lyric 15/30 table and for over 200 hands had a player at 62/40 and one at 65/18, one at 50/18 and two mousy types. I won about $1000, but the 62/40 owned the table and was up $2100 at one time. According to my PT, I won 2000 off him in 26 hands and he won 1440 of me in 38 hands. He was clearly pushing me off the smaller pots.

He won with cards, he won by catching with his crap, and he won by bullying the mice (and me) off pots. He also had the tight mice go from 18% VP to 23 to 26 over the period of the game, and they did not adjust well.

People were lauging when he raised with 52s UTG and bet out to the river with nothing, but i wasn't laughing. I was just thinking about how many pots he took down when people were folding to his aggression.

If anyone is interested, I can show 10-15 of his hands on the High Limit sight...It might be interesting to see some of the approaches of a 60/40 player..

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elipsesjeff
Old 02-25-2006, 09:42 PM #19 (permalink)  
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 I sat at one of those tables last sunday and just got owned. I dropped 65 BB at the table, eating up all my profits for the week and I got up 2 hours later wondering WTF. Although, I did miss at least 8-10 flush draws and when i did get good cards I couldnt hit.


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