Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

All Other (Limit) Poker

  > 

Fun with math...

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Demiparadigm
Old 09-07-2005, 09:10 AM     Post subject: Fun with math... #1 (permalink)  
Demiparadigm's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
Demiparadigm
Assume: A Player with a theoretical (-1BB/100) win rate, with a loose agressive style that results in a 30BB/100 Standard Deviation.

At what number of hands will 1% of such players still be profitable?


1% of players will have a win rate at least S standard errors above average, where from Excel, S =NORMSINV(99%) =~ 2.33. The standard error is 30/sqrt(N/100), so we want 1 bb to be S standard errors:

1 = S*30/sqrt(N/100)

N = 100*(S*30)^2 = 487,070 hands.


So, If we are talking about a "long run" of more than half a million hands, then it looks like skill is the deciding factor.
Any less than that, and Poker is a game of luck.

So, Good luck.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
Old 09-07-2005, 09:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
Guest

Posts: n/a
I'll wait until 500,000 hands until posting my stats, then.
Reply With Quote
jmontis
Old 09-07-2005, 09:31 PM #3 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
jmontis
that's over my head, but 500k hands would definitely show someones true win rate.
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:53 AM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.