Originally Posted by KoRnholio

Pot is way too big to fold the nut pair here.

Originally Posted by Chopper

no offense, lawdude, but i am laughing at two things....

1) HJ carrying less than a 10BB stack

2) folding for "one more" in a 20ish BB pot. you are good more than 5% of the time. folding and seeing AJ tilts the hell out of me here. (and, i've done it) but, it still makes me laugh. you know you are better than that.

"calling a bet on the river is at most a small mistake, but folding the best hand in a big pot is a colossal disaster." (i believe thats almost a direct quote of sklansky/miller) and, its what i try to live by.

however, just yesterday, i dropped KK in a pot where i was up against two stations and their Q7 and QJ going ballistic with their TPNK vs TPGK war. i was sure someone had a set or two pair. but, when i dropped to two bets cold on the turn (i led and it went raise, reraise), i about shit my pants when i saw that i was best and WOULD HAVE WON.

we all make these mistakes on occasion. dont sweat it too hard.

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

I hate linking 2p2, but it is the only hit I got for my search. I think I first read the article that the op refers to later in his post, in the Cardplayer magazine archives.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/53...ilemma-241513/

"Someday you will make such a fold, it will be a good one and you will
be happy. You will be able to afford a shrimp cocktail at Binions with
the saved bet and maybe even treat a friend.

Feeling like a champ, you will do it again someday. But, this time a
guy with [K6] will drag your pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat
and f*ck her blue for a week. Now which guy do you want to be? The
smart one with the shrimp cocktail or the stupid one with the sore
dick?"

I realize that LHE is a game of very small edges, and making 1BB folds on the river can have a substantial effect on your winrate. But there's always a non-zero chance of someone pulling that wtf-factor, non-nonsensical, hey-guys-look-I-bluffed-the-rounder-in-an-impossible-spot move that makes me pay it off in spots like this basically always. This is even more true live than online.

Not to mention that calling that last BB for a showdown is like tilt insurance against losing a 25BB pot to a total retard move. Put a value on each of those two things at 2.5% and now a call is +EV.

I see your point that in a protected pot with one all in player, that he should be bluffing this 0% of the time. But with all the voodoo logic that poor players use, it's possible that he thinks he has the HJ beat, but not you. He sees that big pot and a chance to steal it for 1BB and can't pass it up.

Originally Posted by Chopper

one major determining factor, for me, was you saying that HJ is TAG but sort of nitty. this "read" tells me she has a pair, but nothing special, or a draw (but here the draw is unlikely because there is no way a nit calls this flop when they are going AI on the turn when there are no flopped draws imo). so, kind of put her on the K or a pp. but, she NEVER raised. so, she doesnt like her hand all that much. but, the fact that this only other "strong" player allowed herself to get put AI tells me our generic read isnt anything to worry about. she's more of a fish; i dont care what the usual shorting play is in this card room. anyone of any skill wont allow themselves to be put AI at a limit table....period. so, i am leaning more towards a weak TP station type of player now. and, we have that beat.

Originally Posted by LawDude

Oh, and BTW Chopper, your 6:41 p.m. post makes the best argument possible for a call. It may be right. The reason I posted the hand is because I think with the all-in player and the bluff being essentially a play for a small side pot, plus the Hero having just an overpair, it presents a stickier situation than the normal "well I have to call this heads up" issue that we have discussed before.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i think that calling for a deck change/dealer change is quite different than carrying a short stack when it comes to superstition. (and, i am just being a bitch here for the sake of debate.)

think about it, though, if you have a short stack, and bought in for a more "normal" amount, if you were superstitious, wouldnt you WANT to rebuy to change your luck?? why keep riding that stack down when you are card dead? change that shit up and get some of those lucky chips that they only keep behind the cage. lol.

online, i wont go below 12BBs. but, live, i routinely wait until i dip under 10 because the play is so passive the pots never require me to put in more than 6-7 BBs. but, i know what you are saying. however, the short stack loses respect, automatically, from me. mistake or not, i will adjust to it like you have, too.

but, i also play 3/6 live or maybe 4/8 if it spreads. i still assume the guy is a retard until i am proven otherwise multiple times.

at our casinos, you can buy 1000 in chips if you want for a 3/6 game. if you wanted to, you just put them in your lap and "come north" as you need it. you just dont "go south" with any without permission (which i have never even heard anyone ask). and, come north is my term because its the opposite of go south . our casinos will let you carry chips in your freakin' pocket if you so desire and put them on the table anytime BETWEEN hands. you just dont take them back off the table once you put them on the felt. ive done that a couple times.

sidebar: i have short-stacked 1/3 NL games for the hell of it before. i will put $80 on the table and carry another $160 in the pocket. i will bring up $80 per shot if i get stacked until i double back up. the goal for me was to double up and play deeper with someone else's money....all the while looking like a fish that got lucky. (this isnt recommended play, but when have i ever had solid advice??? lol.)

but, i also know that many players dont want to carry all that money in chips, either. they just put 10 BBs on the table to start and rebuy when they go bust. i laugh inside when they hit AA with a 3 BB stack and double up.

but whatevs. its just good to talk some poker again.

Originally Posted by Chopper

this is what levels the playing field a bit. there are no river decisions. there are less ways to put your opponent to really tough decisions for bigger money than they are comfortable with. therefore, shorting takes away the better player's edge.

its silly to do at the lowest levels, when WE should have the advantage, but at higher levels, i wouldnt bat an eye at it. the variance can be huge, though.

in my home games, the guys want to play 25/50c blinds and play NL. they want to buy in and rebuy for $5!! that is insane. but, i cant really stop them because they want the blinds to amount to something.....so, they minraise instead. its silly, but thats what they want to do.

so, i play short stacked, and aggressive, against them, too. i cant win more than the $5 in your stack even if i have $1000 on the table. so, i buy in for $10 and keep them covered. but, put them all in anytime i hit a flop with my premiums. and, i come over their raises a lot. i squeeze a lot. i dont really push a lot of draws, but i will push combos. just crap like that. basically, flop TPTK and bet size to get it in on the turn and roll the dice for the river.

crazy, but very, very profitable. the casinos can be about the same, but with a slightly higher caliber of player than my home games for sure. but, the goal, if shorting, is to take away the tough decisions on later streets by already having the money in the middle. and, if you are the deeper stack, your goal is to put the shorty to tough decisions, FOR HIS STACK, before he gets committed to the pot. they will fold quite often if you strike hard and first. they like to be the shover, not the shovee.