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RiverMonkey
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03-17-2005, 08:36 PM
Post subject: Frikin' Variance! It happens, so expect it ... That's poker!
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Let me start off by saying that what I'm about to describe is nothing special or unique, and it's happened to most of us. Just thought I'd share this story so that people who haven't experienced this yet are aware that it does happen. Hopefully, they might be more psychologically prepared to deal with it when they do.
Wow, I had an unbelievable run on the PP $2/4 tables last night. And then .....
I was 3-tabling, it started off really slow for about the first 45 mins. Fold, fold, fold, fold .......... Then I just started hitting cards like crazy, stealing pots when I wasn't hitting, and basically bullying all three tables. People were laying down hands to me left, right and center. It was quite the rush. I even took my aggression too far on occasion using check-raise bluffs on the turn, but to my amazement, they worked. No exaggeration, I turned my 3x$50 buy-ins into about $660 in about 2 1/2 hours. Unreal! I knew it was a completely insane, unsustainable win-rate ... but it was as fun as hell.
I had an incling that I should have quit right then and there, but the tables were just too good. The players were sooooooo loose and passive. I also knew the cards were being exceptionally good to me and trust me, I did stop to smell and appreciate the Benjamins. However, being up in a game that you have an edge in is not a good reason to quit, so I kept playing. (Going to bed because it's 2am in the morning and work is only 7 hrs away is a slightly better reason, but that's another story)  .
In retrospect, I should have gone to bed. Things took a 180 degree turn in the opposite direction pretty quick. The cards stopped coming, and when they did, they missed, or I got sucked out on, time after time.
On a few occasions, at the B&M, where MT'ing isn't a luxury, I've experienced ~6-hour cold-card periods, during which I may have only won one or small pots. It happens, and I'm used to it (now). I've learned that patience can be a HUGE part of this game.
Anyhow, back to last night's run. After the rush, for ~45 minutes it was a pretty constant $120 slide down. I logged in this morning and played for about anoter 45 mins and the slide continued .... down another $40 pretty quick.
Needless to say, I'm taking a break, stepping back and analyzing my play during this +$510, and then -$160 slide.
Up 127.5BB, and then down -40BB spanning two playing sessions.
That's variance!
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Chicago_Kid
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: People let me tell you about my best friends...
Posts: 1,132
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Monkey:
Could be related to Aidan's thread about 2/4 going TAg. I've been playing at 17/9/2.5, and 2-3 weeks of steady profits, I've suddenly gone on a major slide.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=8695
Can Jeff, Fnord or others comment on their observations of players seen at 2/4 and 3/6 lately? Maybe some 3/6'ers are dropping down...
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"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Nah. Good suggestion, but I don't think you can attribute my specific story to any overall tightening trend that may or may not be happening.
Read my post again. ... All 3 tables that I was on were full of loose/passives.
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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amen brother.... luck runs hot and then it runs COLD for long long periods at a time. you must be prepared to accept this or you will NEVER be a winning player. (not "you" specifially, i mean people in general.)
you certainly don't need TAG's at the table to get dealt a ton of suited connectors that all flop strong draws and miss on the river after you jammed the pot on every street. or to get AK/AQ's that completely miss the flop and turn.
those two situations alone, when properly played, will put huge swings in your bankroll regardless of the opposition. actually, TAGs could be HELPFUL in forcing you to fold some of your draws!
B&M play can be unbelievably frustrating when you fold for literally hours while watching morons take down pot after pot with 83o. it's like being at the indy 500 and having a bunch of wind-up Model T's whizz by while you wait for someone to bring you some gas for your ferrari.
ChezJ
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChezJ
amen brother....
B&M play can be unbelievably frustrating when you fold for literally hours while watching morons take down pot after pot with 83o. it's like being at the indy 500 and having a bunch of wind-up Model T's whizz by while you wait for someone to bring you some gas for your ferrari.
ChezJ
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Nice analogy.
You're so right about those morons. While watching that 83o nonsense, it can be sooo tempting for you to loosen up too. You just have to keep playing good poker.
I'm not perfect by any stretch, so sometimes I succumb to the boredom and take down a pot or two with a loose pre-flop call/raise, but the trick is to not make this a habitual reaction to cold-cards, and to be fully aware of the "mistake" you are making. Ok, I don't use 83o for this, but I may use A7o from EP with a raise . Now that I'm being honest, I also might even use JTo & raw aggression against the right players, with the right position to stone cold bluff a hand or two while I wait for the cards. But shhhh ..... don't tell anyone.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Wow, I think that beats any rush I've ever had. I know I've done just shy of 100BB in 100 hands before, but nothing really insate that would top over 150BB in 2 1/2 hours.
Funny game, you can be running like crap or break even then BAM, like 3 or 4 big hands and the bottom line suddenly looks pretty good.
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Tripps7
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 130
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It's amazing how a few big pots either way can make or break a session or a week. I have sat down with PT after 500 hand sessions and looked at my hands that I won and lost the most. I can remember sessions where I ended down 15-20 BB and through the hand historys I will usually find 4 or 5 hands that I lost to some fish who sucked out or flopped huge hands with crap cards they never should have played. These 4 or 5 hands can easily turn that 20 BB loss into a nice 30-40 BB profit.
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AidanN20
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 106
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right now after 6000 hands I have a negative BB/100 on AKs, as well as AJs, i have no idea why...
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Dont F' with me, I can grind it out like a bot
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Gatlin Dan
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Wild Bill's Backyard
Posts: 504
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AidanN20
right now after 6000 hands I have a negative BB/100 on AKs, as well as AJs, i have no idea why...
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With no information, I would say you are going to far with them. Could be this, could be other things. Maybe you just haven't taken down a big pot with that AJs yet, but you could be doing just about anything with them to cause this phenomenom. check out Fnord's "Why you suck at limit" link. It may jog your brain on something. 6k still isn't that many hands. You could just be on the short-term with these hands and the variance (+) hasn't caught up to you yet.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AidanN20
right now after 6000 hands I have a negative BB/100 on AKs, as well as AJs, i have no idea why...
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Suited hands have the lowest occurance rate. Also, because their extra value is driven by flushes they take the longest to stablize as you build up your database.
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