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The free showdown play

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asdpikas

11-11-2008, 09:05 AM Post subject: The free showdown play

#1 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

So, Rube, here's a post on one of the concepts i am feeling more comfy with lately and that i find really useful and interesting:

The free showdown (FSD).

So, we've all been there, in position against an aggressive opponent who bets flop, bets turn...
We have a hand with some SD value (say Ahi, or a small PP...), and feel he may be bluffin or semibluffin...

Do we just call down? trying to snap his bluffs, or do we use the FSD play (raise the turn and check behind on the river UI)?

Both plays have their place, here are some considerations:

-The more vulnerable and the less outs we have if behind, the more we should tend to use the FSD play.
This is because by raising the turn, we are partly foregoing some of our implied odds and because when villain happens to 3bet and we muck, we are relinquishing those outs. The less outs we have, the less equity we muck.

-The more outs we have to improve to a winner if we are behind, the more we should just call down (raising river if possible if we actually improve).
Again, we are preserving our implied odds for when we do hit without the risk of getting 3bet on the turn and mucking a hand with a decent amount of equity.

-The more likely our opponent is to be semibluffing (on a draw with several outs) the more we should use the FSD play.
This is because we charge him the max on his draw and lose the same 2BBs if we are incorrect in our assumptions and he has a big hand.
By just calling down, we may also forgo 1BB profit when he misses and c/folds the river, not firing the third barrel.

NOTE: If we have a read on villain as someone who will 3bet semibluff, we should just call down to avoid mucking a winner.

-The more likely our opponent is to be on a naked bluff (few outs against us) the more we should just call down
This is because we give him the opportunity to fire the 3rd barrel, whereas if we raise the turn he will probably fold. Thus we win more letting him fire.
The fact that he has fewer outs is important. The less outs he has, the less times he will improve. Thus giving him a cheaper look at the river costs us less.

Additional considerations:

-Look at the board and consider your opponents style.
On a dry board he either has a hand or has few outs, so if we want to see a showdown, calling down is the play, and against an opponent not so aggro and who we consider wouldnt spew (but on this occasion may be on tilt or something), calling down is also the play.
On a more drawy board and against a villain prone to semibluff, it's a no brainer, FSD to the rescue.

-A scary turn may be your friend.
It is much easier to muck to a turn 3bet when we know villain could only 3bet with a real hand. You may also get some better hands to fold!
As an example, if our turn raise represents trips or better (turn pairs middle card) it will be almost impossible for villain to 3bet bluff/semibluff us.

A sample hand:

-Villain is a TAG with decent stats and quite aggro. I believe this is a good spot for a FSD play because if behind, he likely has 6+ outs against me, plus i will get better hands to fold a decent amount (namely 22, 44, 55, or higher aces with no FD).

2/4 Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($141.00)
CO ($43.00)
Hero ($174.50)
SB ($202.00)
BB ($35.50)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 5 players) Hero is BTN

2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop:

(7.0 SB, 2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls

Turn:

(4.5 BB, 2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB folds

Final Pot: 6.5 BB

Hero wins 7.2 BB ( won +3.2 BB )
SB lost 3.0 BB

Please add comments/questions on the subject.

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Rubeskies

11-11-2008, 07:29 PM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2007

Location: Poker Enlightenment

Posts: 33

The free showdown raise is one of the most overused concepts that I see solid players use. IMO there are very very few good situations for it and it almost always involves a heads up situation against a solid player and there is some chance he'll fold a better hand.

The reason I don't think the semi-bluff situation is so great is that the % is so high that if they semibluff the turn that they're firing a river a barrel that I don't know how much the free showdown raise really gets us and there is always the possibility of making us fold our outs or a best hand.

Luckily it seems you've gotten a good grip of when not to do it. Most people make the mistake of doing it when they have some outs but don't want to call a 3-bet.

The situation you give as an example isn't a great one IMO. When you think about his range it includes weaker Aces, lots of Ks, Qs, Js that you don't want to fold. The only better hands you get to fold here are better Aces IMO and I don't know if they'll always fold.

I think just calling here is better to get the bluffs from all the Ks, Qs, Js, and weaker Aces and so that you don't get rebluffed.

I'll try to post some hands where I think a freeshowdown raise is good later today.

DrivingDog

11-11-2008, 07:39 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

Yeah not really crazy about it here. I mean you avoided giving six out hands a cheap look at the river, but those hands might have bluffed anyways if they missed. I don't think many better hands are folding; maybe AT or AJ.

If you're going to go to SD anyways (and here you should with no broadway cards and A high) then going for the free SD might just be costing you another BB in bluff-catching profit.

That being said, I don't think the free SD move is as overused as the semibluff turn raise.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

asdpikas

11-11-2008, 10:44 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubeskies

I disagree. The chance of folding a better hand is not the purpose of the FSD. That would be a semibluff or a bluff. The purposes, as i stated before, are charging draws while avoiding tricky river situations and relinquishing little "outs" equity.
The fact that the FSD results in sometimes folding a better hand is just an added plus, but not its purpose.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubeskies

The situation you give as an example isn't a great one IMO. When you think about his range it includes weaker Aces, lots of Ks, Qs, Js that you don't want to fold. The only better hands you get to fold here are better Aces IMO and I don't know if they'll always fold.

Again, i am not trying to fold those 6+ outers, i'm trying to charge them an extra bet to see the river and not have to face another river bet when a T, J, Q, K, diamond comes out. I would like for the river to go check/check if possible.
So, that is the purpose behind that raise. I put this hand cause it was the only recent one from my latest session that i could remember. It is not the greatest example, obviously, since there was no river check check and showdown.
The fact that i get to charge draws is the most important. The fact that i sometimes fold an Ahi hand that could beat me or chop is added value to the play.

Rubeskies

11-12-2008, 12:24 AM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2007

Location: Poker Enlightenment

Posts: 33

Well the point of my analysis is that HU in limit hold em, semibluffs bet the river when they miss 90%+ of the time. There you almost always gain the SAME 2 bets you get from your free showdown raise without the risk of getting 3-bet and having to fold a possible best hand (which is a disaster) or hands that have some outs. Because you'll never know for sure that it is a semi bluff (and often it won't be), you can't make up what you lose when folding the best hand or folding outs that 10% of the time they c/f their semibluff when they miss.

asdpikas

11-12-2008, 12:58 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rubeskies

Yeah, that is why one of the considerations stated in op to make the play is that villain doesn't 3bet semibluff turns often. The board also counts. Villain may 3bet semibluff a flush draw on a not too scary board figurin what you are doing or believing he may make you fold a weak made hand. If the board is paired, he may think about it twice before 3betting since he may be drawing dead or your raise may be trips (a hand you wont fold that easily).

Rubeskies

11-12-2008, 01:30 AM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2007

Location: Poker Enlightenment

Posts: 33

Well according to you, the only bonus we get from the free showdown raise (besides getting a better hand to fold) is an extra bet from a semi bluff.

I think that those people betting a draw or semi-bluff, bet the river when they miss 90% of the time. If you agree with this, then we get that second bet 90% of the time as well and we ALSO get extra bets from worse hands that would have folded to your turn raise who fire the third barrel. Other than that 10% of the time you get an extra bet from a draw that would have c/f'd, I really don't see what you gain from the free showdown raise and you've lost bets from pure bluffs and people just barreling such as the situation in the OP.

I don't think that 10% of the time makes up for everything you lose with your raise. Even if you think that 10% figure should be a bit bigger, I still think it would have to be WAY bigger to make up all you lose by raising.

asdpikas

11-12-2008, 01:44 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,056

Well, not really... I think charging draws to see the river is quite a good thing. Basic poker (pot odds vs odds to hit draw)

Balance for your legit turn value raises and your turn semibluff raises is also a good thing.

Having an easier decision for the same price is very important.

I mean, if the Kd falls on the river on the hand i posted, and i had just called the turn... could i really call the river bet?
I personally would muck, and would be allowing villain to bluff me out with a 3rd barrel the times he has air.

Just to say, that there are many advantages to the FSD when done at the right time. I never said the only one was an extra bet from a semibluff.

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