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dsaxton
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08-20-2007, 12:44 AM
Post subject: Folding the second nuts for one bet.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Short-handed $3/$6 LHE game on Pokerstars featuring your typical lineup of passive gamblers.
Fish limps UTG, folds to me in the small blind, I complete with K-9 offsuit, the big blind raises and we both call the raise. I have no meaningful read on either of the players involved. The flop comes J, T, x rainbow, I check, the big blind bets, the UTG player calls and I call. The turn is a Q that puts a diamond draw on board, I check, the big blind checks, UTG bets, I raise, big blind immediately 3-bets, UTG folds and I fold. Should I have just called him down and paid him off if he had A-K?
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
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Unless I have a read that the guy is a total nit post-flop, I call this down.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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It just seemed to me at the time that no hand made any sense other than A-K. I suppose this could be a set of queens, but even then it's an extremely odd turn check. I should probably just call this down given the possibility of Q-Q, even if it's remote.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
It just seemed to me at the time that no hand made any sense other than A-K. I suppose this could be a set of queens, but even then it's an extremely odd turn check. I should probably just call this down given the possibility of Q-Q, even if it's remote.
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Since when do your opponents makes sense?
Seriously, I think this is a pretty bad fold. With 9 BB in the pot you are getting 9:1 to call the 3bet on the turn, and assuming you c/c the river you are paying 2 BB to win a 12 BB pot. If you're more than 83% certain he has AK, then the fold would be correct. I just don't think you can be anywhere near that sure.
There's a lot of hands he might raise two limpers with preflop and check-3bet the turn. TT+, AK, AQ, all spring to mind, and maybe even AdJd, KQ or QJs, depending on how aggro he is. Since you limped he's probably not giving you credit for anything better than 2 pair at best. The fact that he immediately 3 bet the turn after you raised doesn't necessarily mean he has the nuts - it only means he wanted to c/r the turn and he wasn't worried about (or didn't stop to consider) anything the two limpers might have.
I figure more than half the time you're ahead on this turn. I would call the turn here, then b/c a non-diamond/non-paired-board river and c/c a diamond/paired river.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Yes, this was probably a dumb fold. I was severely hungover when I played this hand and I think that effected my play.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Yeah, I'd see a showdown here too.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
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On reflection, there's a couple of subtle but important points i missed in my earlier analysis. First, when talking about folding, i argued that you needed to be 83% sure he had AK to make folding correct. In reality, this number is too high because it ignores the possibility of him not having AK but drawing out on you with a set, FD, two pair, or AQ- on the river (or getting a split if an Ace hits and he holds something like KQ). In the first two cases, the chance of being drawn out on the river is about 20% and in the last three about 5-10%. Assuming (for ease of analysis) roughly equal probabilities of his possessing any of these hands as well as AK, and ignoring the chance that he is bluffing the turn (!), you should adjust the 83% cetainty-behind figure about 10-15% lower, or to maybe about 70%. In other words you have to think he has precisely AK 70% of the time to fold and something besides AK about 30% or more of the time to continue.
Given how many different hands he could be 3 betting with, I think you can safely assume you're ahead on the turn at least 30% of the time and continue, but the point is that considering your opponent's implied odds is important whenever you're not sure whether you're ahead or behind. This is obviously a more critical point when the decision is marginal. I'll try to post a hand that illustrates this more clearly if i can dig one up.
This leads to the second point, which is whether you should call or 4bet the turn. In principle, if you're more than 50% likely to win against his 3-betting range, you should 4bet the turn for value, especially since you can't be re-raised any further by AK. So i might go ahead and 4-bet the turn here.
If only i had this much time to think when i'm playing... 
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Yeah, I'd see a showdown here too.
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what's the bigger mistake?
1) laying down the winner in a large pot
2) calling 1bb to see SD in a large pot
i think the answer is a simple one here... I agree with Fnord call...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Well, in this case it's 2BB. However, I see so much over-played stuff online that I would have to be stuck between raises to even think about laying this down. Even live this would be a really difficult laydown. Although, I'm in a processs of soul searching on the turn raise thing again...
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outphase
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
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Immediate 3bet in this spot can be many things, AK as one, AA/KK, QQ/JJ/TT as others. Hangover ftw
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
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