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A fold with reverse implied odds

  
 
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Old 10-27-2005, 12:23 AM     Post subject: A fold with reverse implied odds #1 (permalink)  
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Table are generally >30%VP$IP donks. G00t?

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Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 2.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4, 3, J (5 players)
SB bets, Hero folds...
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Fnord
Old 10-27-2005, 12:27 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Good fold.

With more player information I sometimes find a raise here, as we get a good chance to isolate SB. In the 2/4-5/10ish game, a typical player will tend to c/r Jx and bet out draws and 3x or 4x.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-27-2005, 06:38 AM #3 (permalink)  
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RAISE


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Fnord
Old 10-27-2005, 10:39 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
RAISE
5 sb pot, 3 players to act. This is a textbook fold.
 
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sinky
Old 10-27-2005, 12:15 PM #5 (permalink)  
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What if hero was 1st to act on flop ?
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MrSmiley23
Old 10-27-2005, 12:20 PM #6 (permalink)  

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yah good fold 3 to act after you and you have worst kicker possible nothing much you can do... sb probably has a oesd probably 56 suited and trying to build the pot
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Fnord
Old 10-27-2005, 01:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sinky
What if hero was 1st to act on flop ?
Check for information with the option of raising later.
 
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koolmoe
Old 10-27-2005, 01:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Fold. There's a reasonable chance you are behind, and almost every card in the deck is a scare card for you. There's almost zero chance you get a cheap showdown here, which is what I would be looking for. No reason to fight for this measly pot with a weak holding.
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euphoricism
Old 10-28-2005, 12:49 AM #9 (permalink)  
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This is a fold I need to make more often.
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outphase
Old 10-28-2005, 02:31 AM #10 (permalink)  
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You're likely behind at least one other person at the table, if so, you only have 3 outs (the deuces), but they're dirty as they complete the straight. The fold is good
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Wet_DreaMer
Old 10-28-2005, 03:31 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Peel...... dont fold TP at .5/1........................
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Demiparadigm
Old 10-28-2005, 03:38 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wet_DreaMer
Peel...... dont fold TP at .5/1........................
Why?
There are 4 possibilities:
You have the best hand, and win
You have the best hand, but are outdrawn
You don't have the best hand, and lose
You don't have the best hand, but draw out.

What is the likelihood of each? Your outs are slim if you don't have the best hand.
There are flush and straight draws on the board.

What are the benefits to calling? to raising?
How much do win win when ahead?
How much do you lose when behind?

EV folding = 0.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-28-2005, 04:28 AM #13 (permalink)  
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You all are weak tight. I think calling here is a better play than folding.

Folding on the flop because it is only 5 SB will cause you to fold lots of hands that could still be ahead. If he calls here he's got 3 players behind him, and could be getting as high as 9-1 in calling, and he already is getting 6-1, and he has anywhere from 4-6 outs here. By raising, you increase your chance of winning the hand by folding those hands that could draw out on you if they did hit that would call for one bet but fold for two (possibly another weak Jx). There are times where you buy the button, get a free river card or free showdown, your choice.

BTW, it is correct to call 73o here too, even without a diamond. .5/1 pots are BIG, and you win them as long as you make as many +EV plays as you can, a lot of them are from drawing.


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koolmoe
Old 10-28-2005, 06:13 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
You all are weak tight. I think calling here is a better play than folding.
If I continue I am raising. It's the three players behind that make me want to fold.

I also think you have to discount your outs mostly because of redraws but also slightly because of the possibility that you are drawing very thin.

If SB is very passive I think it is an easy, easy fold.
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-28-2005, 06:29 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by koolmoe
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
You all are weak tight. I think calling here is a better play than folding.
If I continue I am raising. It's the three players behind that make me want to fold.

I also think you have to discount your outs mostly because of redraws but also slightly because of the possibility that you are drawing very thin.

If SB is very passive I think it is an easy, easy fold.
I agree, but calling is still better than folding. You don't have to discount your outs as much when you raise, as you are likely to fold out random backdoor draws other than your own.

Reads would have been nice, yes, but you have to remember it is .5/1 and he could be betting because he likes how his hearts look like diamonds.


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