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Anosmic
Old 09-05-2006, 05:14 AM     Post subject: Fold this? #1 (permalink)  
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Very loose/passive table. So decided to play the gapper.

No great reads or anything.

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $119.50
UTG+1: $28.75
MP1: $43
MP2: $27
MP3: $71
Hero: $38.50
Button: $52.50
SB: $77
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with 3 5
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: J 5 5 (6SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB folds, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: J (5.5BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

Fold at this point?

River: 9 (9.5BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11.5BB
Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
 
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midas06
Old 09-05-2006, 05:20 AM #2 (permalink)  
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flotu
Old 09-05-2006, 08:13 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I simply don't like the call preflop. I can't imagine that 35s will show a profit in the long run in a full ring limit game.

Otherwise I would have taken the same line as you did, though I must say that folding can't be that bad considering your description of the table.
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Anosmic
Old 09-05-2006, 08:44 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'm not sure about 53s either.

But if about 20% of the time it'll give us a draw of some kind and we'll be getting around 10-1 odds to call the flop it's probably not a bad position.

If we pair 25% of the time and have the odds to chase the 5-outs if the board doesn't pair, is it worth it?

Perhaps not.

Meh.
Blah blah Op Blah blah

Faith in Jesus Christ is +EV. That is all.
 
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outphase
Old 09-05-2006, 01:17 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I'm not sure if calling the turn check/raise is right. In fact, I'm sure that you're beat at this point. The only reasonable hand betting the flop on this type of table is a J.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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euphoricism
Old 09-05-2006, 02:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Folding preflop would be criminal.
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NWNewell
Old 09-05-2006, 02:38 PM     Post subject: FOLD!! #7 (permalink)  
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Fold Pre-Flop: This is the precise reason, I don't play 53s (even with position). You don't hit that often. And when you do hit (flush, two pair, trips), it is very easy for for someone to draw out on you, giving you a strong second best hand that will cost you a lot of money. 5:1 preflop odds is not great for playing this but you do have position. Personally, I like to have more like 7:1 preflop to play little suited one gappers (so basically, I'll try to spike something from the blinds with enough people).

I like to have 7:1 for small suited one gappers (53s, 42s), middle suited two gappers (96s, T7s), or larger suited three gappers (J7s, Q8s). I don't know if this is correct. But I think it is a solid, safe stratgey, and will help you avoid sticky situations post flop like the one you got yourself into.

Fold the Turn: With him leading the flop (especially if the table is passive as you said), I would put him on a Jack. With him calling your raise, it is probably a weak Jack, or he is afraid of the two 5s on the board. Now when he check raises the turn, he definitely has a Jack is not going anywhere. You need to trust the read you made on the flop (and it was re-affirmed with his Turn play) and make the right decision. Do not change your mind or hope he doesn't have the Jack just because you don't want him to have it. Trust your read and what he is telling you (he is screaming I've got a Jack).

Now, looking at the turn desicion. He is screaming I've got the Jack. The question is do you have odds to draw and do you trust him?

The first part is easy. I've got one card left in the deck to save you. You're going to hit it about 4% of the time. With your initial bet and UTG+1 raise, the pot size is 8:1 (discounting the SB for the rake... something I always do especially at the lower limits because the rake really hurts). So you are getting 8:1 odds to call with worst than a 20:1 shot to win. Very Bad Odds!! Roughly -0.6BB EV.

The second is a little tougher (but at a profitable loose/passive table, I'm going to belive him, avoid marginal stuations, and wait for a more profitable situation). What would he be check raising you with? A Jack, very likely. Another 5, possible, but statisically slim with only one 5 left. Plus, he is probably more likely to slowplay the trip 5s form early possition and bet out a pair of jacks from early position (flop play leans towards a Jack). Maybe getting fancy with a flush draw?? Doubt full, especially when looking at the flop play (especially at a passive table, when is flush draw is dead to a full house, but maybe he is an idiot), but it and maybe and overpair is about the only other possibility. So, lets say I'm an optomist and we assume doesn't have the Jack 20% of the time (I think it is less than that). We'll say he has a 5 10% of the time and a flush draw 10% of the time. You are going to contribute 2 more BB, and he will contribute 1 more. Your Pot Odds will be 9:2 = 4.5.1. So, you lose 80% when he has the Jack, split 10% when he as the 5, and win 10% when he has a flush draw or worse. That leaves you with a roughly -0.25BB EV when you do not improve under pretty optimistic conditions. I think more realisticaly, you are probably closer to 0.4-0.5 Negative EV.

You can add in the possibility of improving to quads to add a little EV, but you are still going to be no greater than break even. Especially when passive players are playing the flop and turn this way. Calling down is overall not a profitable play.

I fold Pre-Flop. And as hard as it is, I try to fold the turn.
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arkitekton
Old 09-06-2006, 08:27 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Very nice analysis, NWN.

I don't hate the flop call as much as some, but I do hate the flop raise. Granted, it would have fared poorly, but with a rainbow board,
why am I trying to drive people out?
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wufwugy
Old 09-07-2006, 01:26 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Folding preflop would be criminal.
getting 5:1 when the pot is 6 handed doesn't seem like something i'd wanna do with hole cards that weak.
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outphase
Old 09-07-2006, 02:55 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Between folding the preflop or the turn, the only one that is more correct is to fold the turn. Preflop is nice and debatable depending on table texture, feel and power over the other players. The turn, you're either splitting or behind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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