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Is this a fold?

  
 
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sejje
Old 09-03-2005, 04:20 AM     Post subject: Is this a fold? #1 (permalink)  
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sejje
I remember these weird tidbits of quotes from people all the time.

I remember someone saying once in the NL forum that "river bets are real."

So I should be folding here?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, J.
3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9, 4, J (4 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (5 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB
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Fnord
Old 09-03-2005, 04:41 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You'll see fewer river bluffs than on the flop or turn. This is often a good laydown, but you really need to know your player here and make the most of the information you have.

I think spots like this are the different between great and good players. Great players find a way to make the right decision here.
 
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jmontis
Old 09-03-2005, 04:51 AM #3 (permalink)  
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yea, need some information. If the rock of gibraltor is in the pot with you, i fold to a flop bet. If "wildwsopman2006" is in there, i raise the river possibly (ok not really, joke)
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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sejje
Old 09-03-2005, 05:25 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'm not trying to spam hands, but here's another hand. These kinds of hands ruin my winning night.

On the river, with a lot of action, I guess I might be behind to a T9 or something? However, I was hoping one was an overpair, and the other one or two were a flush or some kind of two pair.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 2, 9, 8 (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG caps, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (28.50 BB) 9 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG caps, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 44.50 BB

Results in white below:
BB has 6s 3s (flush, nine high).
UTG has 8c 8h (full house, eights full of nines).
CO has Js Ts (flush, jack high).
Hero has 2d 2h (full house, twos full of nines).
Outcome: UTG wins 44.50 BB.


Then it seems like I can't make it back. Lose a huge pot, and the night is ruined. I'm only down 5 BB, but I was up a bit before this, and it knocked me even. Could have catapulted me. Oh, woe is me, woe is me.
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sejje
Old 09-03-2005, 05:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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sejje
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6, A, J (6 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has As Kh (one pair, aces).
MP2 has Ad Jc (two pair, aces and jacks).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13.50 BB.


He hasn't shown strength, so I keep betting. But I can't fold to that river raise, right? So how often do you figure I'm beat here? Not often enough to forfeit the pot, I assume. Just the cards that fell were so safe, how could he be bluffing?
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jmontis
Old 09-03-2005, 06:42 AM #6 (permalink)  
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these hands are what you call short term variance. I raise the F' out of a set, and it's how you should be.

AK is not going to run into a two paired AJ very often, and occasionally, you'll pair your king or the board will pair higher than the other guy's kicker...
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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Old 09-03-2005, 07:26 AM #7 (permalink)  
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OK, so you lose to an overset. That happens a lot less often than when you beat trips with a good kicker or flush.
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Fnord
Old 09-03-2005, 05:47 PM #8 (permalink)  
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You have a set, raise the flop.
 
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