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arborman
Old 10-23-2007, 05:35 PM     Post subject: Flopped set #1 (permalink)  
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I've been avoiding pp under 77 utg lately, but decided to limp this one because it was a fairly passive table (avg about 50% vpip).

That said, all the villains that I had any stats on were quite loose >45% vpip. MP1 was new to me.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6, 6.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) Q, 6, 8 (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

My thinking was to checkraise, but then I changed my mind and overcalled with so many callers already in. Uncoordinated rainbow flop suggested tptk or (just possibly) a donk c-bet from MP1, the others would call down with an ace overcard.

Turn: (9.20 BB) Q (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 3-bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Now the pot is huge and I have a boat. I suspected MP1 of trip queens, no idea what the other people had. Barring a pair of 8s or some idiotic Q8 hand I'm in the lead so I pushed hard.

River: (25.20 BB) K (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 29.20 BB

I thought about raising, but KQ was definitely in his range and a raise would be spew (IMO).

Thoughts? Should I have checkraised the flop, or possibly checkcalled the river?
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littleogre
Old 10-23-2007, 06:07 PM #2 (permalink)  

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 Exactly what are you scared of on the flop? You have a very strong hand. Raise or c-r. Also the turn did not help your hand. On the flop you are only behind wired 8s and qs. Those hands are still dominating you and q/8 just jumped in front. You would have 6s full of queens and they would have queens full of 8s
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DrivingDog
Old 10-23-2007, 07:37 PM     Post subject: Re: Flopped set #3 (permalink)  
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If you c/r the flop you might as well turn your hand over. I think the turn c/r is much better because the flop aggressor is on your left and...

a) if you c/r the flop he could 3bet and knock out all the guys who are basically drawing dead against your set.

b) it gets more money in the pot - you want all those flop callers putting in another bet on the turn before you pop 'em.

On the river i think it's close. MP1 could have AQ (6 hands) but could also have KQ (6 hands). Maybe he raised with QJs (2 hands)? Anything else would surprise me - 88 is a weird hand to raise limpers with, AA or KK wouldn't go nuts on the turn. Check/call seems right to me.
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KoRnholio
Old 10-23-2007, 09:23 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Looks good. That K isn't the greatest river, if it was a 9 or lower that hit, I would 3bet that river for sure.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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arborman
Old 10-23-2007, 09:40 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I wasn't scared of anything on the flop - I check called to hide the strength of my hand in order to keep everyone in until the turn check-raise (thus getting more value). I'm not particularly worried about set over set, because it happens rarely enough(1 in 20, and half of them I'm dominant) that it's more profitable to stay hungry with any set. I had him on AQ or KQ (likely) or QJ (less likely) with the preflop raise into 3 limpers. Maybe one of the others was on AQ as well.

If it had been anything under a ten on the river I'd have 3bet and called the cap. His likelihood of KQ was slightly less than AQ (in my opinion), but it was enough that I just called the raise (and I'm glad I did). No way I'm folding a 28BB pot for 1 bet.

Painful hand in a painful session, but such is poker. I'd probably have played his hand exactly the way he played it as well, so I can't really complain when it doesn't go my way (because it does more than it doesn't).
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bigspenda73
Old 10-23-2007, 09:44 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I might lead the turn in case MP1 shuts down with AA/KK
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KoRnholio
Old 10-23-2007, 11:46 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I might lead the turn in case MP1 shuts down with AA/KK
Nah, still an easy check I think. There's still 4 other players who called that flop (besides us and the preflop raisor) who will bet trips if they have it.. And at least one likely does after calling that dry board.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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littleogre
Old 10-24-2007, 03:11 AM #8 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
I wasn't scared of anything on the flop - I check called to hide the strength of my hand in order to keep everyone in until the turn check-raise (thus getting more value). I'm not particularly worried about set over set, because it happens rarely enough(1 in 20, and half of them I'm dominant) that it's more profitable to stay hungry with any set. I had him on AQ or KQ (likely) or QJ (less likely) with the preflop raise into 3 limpers. Maybe one of the others was on AQ as well.

If it had been anything under a ten on the river I'd have 3bet and called the cap. His likelihood of KQ was slightly less than AQ (in my opinion), but it was enough that I just called the raise (and I'm glad I did). No way I'm folding a 28BB pot for 1 bet.

Painful hand in a painful session, but such is poker. I'd probably have played his hand exactly the way he played it as well, so I can't really complain when it doesn't go my way (because it does more than it doesn't).
Sorry i misunderstood your wording. I thought you were saying you didn't raise because you were scared of being called .
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 10-24-2007, 05:45 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I think I would c/r that flop. I've read (Jones) that low-limit players give up a lot of money by playing sets too slowly. Get the money in the pot while you're confident that you're ahead and before a scare card comes...to scare them or to scare you!

Also, once in a blue moon you might get a hand like Q2 to fold.
Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
 
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arborman
Old 10-24-2007, 06:41 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I'd prefer Q2 stay in the pot right to the end actually.

I wish KQ hadn't, however.
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DrivingDog
Old 10-24-2007, 10:54 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard
Also, once in a blue moon you might get a hand like Q2 to fold.
Anyone with one pair higher than your set cards on the flop (Qx or 8x in this case) needs runner runner to beat you. That will happen 1.01% of the time. Do you still want them to fold on the flop, or would you rather they keep putting money in the pot?
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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snowboard_31
Old 10-25-2007, 03:47 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I like the line, even tho i usually lead with flopped sets, theres just so many people in the pot and your just too good.

River 3bet is definate spew, call is right.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 10-25-2007, 05:27 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Anyone with one pair higher than your set cards on the flop (Qx or 8x in this case) needs runner runner to beat you. That will happen 1.01% of the time. Do you still want them to fold on the flop, or would you rather they keep putting money in the pot?
They don't need runner runner, they already have two queens so they have two shots to spike a queen, and that's a better shot than 1%, isn't it?
Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
 
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arborman
Old 10-25-2007, 06:03 PM #14 (permalink)  
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arborman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Anyone with one pair higher than your set cards on the flop (Qx or 8x in this case) needs runner runner to beat you. That will happen 1.01% of the time. Do you still want them to fold on the flop, or would you rather they keep putting money in the pot?
They don't need runner runner, they already have two queens so they have two shots to spike a queen, and that's a better shot than 1%, isn't it?
Spiking a queen gives them three queens and me a full house - as happened on the turn in this hand. To beat my set they need to hit either a higher full house or 4 queens. To do that they need to pair their kicker or the 8 - 6 outs, 7 including the last queen. I have no problem capping my boat when I'm leading against someone with 7 outs on the turn (even though it hurt me this time).

That's why it's dangerous to get into raising wars when you have trips, because a lot of people who will cap a paired board have a hidden set.
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DrivingDog
Old 10-25-2007, 09:58 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Villian needed to hit a 5 outter (Q or K) on the turn and a four outter (Q or K) on the river. 1% chance - we have 99% equity.

The biggest threat is someone with two pair using the overcards to our set (i.e, Q8). However, he only has two chances at a four outter - that's an 17.5% chance he will fill up without us making quads - we have 82.5% equity.

A more realistic threat on this board is a 97, which will make a straight 32% of the time by the river BUT about half of those times we will make a FH as well - we have 83% equity.

A backdoor flush will hit 2% of the time by the river using cards that don't make us a FH - we have 98% equity.

A backdoor straight is harder to calculate because it depends on whether the turn card gives him a gutshot or an OESD but the best chance it could have is 1.5%. - we have at least 98.5% equity.

A6-76 needs runner runner kicker. E.g., A6 needs A on turn and A on river- we have 99.7% equity.

I won't bore you with the calculations but i estimate we're up against an overset about 6% of the time here with 5 opponents with typical preflop ranges.

Overall i would estimate our equity on the flop at >85%. Unless you flop a nut flush, quads or a FH it doesn't get much better than that against five opponents.

The way it was played (with the aggressor on our left) i think a slowplay on the flop and turn c/r is correct. It just happened that villian hit runner runner this time - but 99% of the time he won't and we will collect a very nice pot.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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arborman
Old 10-25-2007, 10:16 PM #16 (permalink)  
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arborman
I agree (and I'm glad you agree), but we can't forget that a paired 8 gives villain a larger boat on the river too, with his trip queens (if he has a queen in his pocket). That adds 3 outs to his hand.

88 is possible, but set over set happens very rarely, and it's not EV+ to back off on my aggression for fear of it since I'm golden about 39 times out of 40, or 19 out of 20 in this hand. (set over set happens ~1 in 20 times, half of which you are probably leading).

97 might have been a threat on the flop, but is drawing dead on the turn. Same with 57. 77 is possibly peeling the flop would be crazy to stay in on turn, though he'd have 4 outs to beat me as well. No fear there either (though I'd curse his name if he hit. )

It's still worth capping turn IMO.

Good discussion. I put this hand up at tpt as well, and had a similar mix of reactions.
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euphoricism
Old 10-25-2007, 10:29 PM #17 (permalink)  
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easy flop c/r.
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sinky
Old 10-26-2007, 09:33 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
easy flop c/r.
That was my first instinct. When the action gets to hero there are 16.4 bets in the pot. A raise is not going to force out any weak draws. So the question is do we get more value raising now or waiting. I think knowing the turn card and the action that followed makes it very easy to say that calling the flop was best.

But let's say I am the villian and I hold TPGK and get 5 callers on the flop. I would already be thinking "****". There are so many horrible cards that could fall on the turn.
An A, 6 or 8 would be horrible.
And a 4,5,7,9,T,J could all complete straights.

So there is no guarantee that you will get the chance to raise the pf raiser on the turn and there is a possibility that you will be outdrawn on the turn and forced to slow down.
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littleogre
Old 10-26-2007, 08:40 PM #19 (permalink)  

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 You are better off pulling the c-r on the flop. Frankly the op was very lucky that he got such an action card on the turn.
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DrivingDog
Old 10-26-2007, 10:14 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
You are better off pulling the c-r on the flop. Frankly the op was very lucky that he got such an action card on the turn.
Actually we were lucky he got an action card on the turn. He has 7 outs the other 37 cards pay us off big time.

We are usually so far ahead here (as in this hand) that with no draws I wait till the turn to c/r.
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