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Facing a turn 3-bet with AAA and a nut flush draw

  
 
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koolmoe
Old 05-29-2006, 01:28 PM     Post subject: Facing a turn 3-bet with AAA and a nut flush draw #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 74/13 and tends to crank up the aggression on the later streets trying to push opponents off the pot.

Is calling here too weak? Is capping spewage?

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Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A.
Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J, Q, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) A (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero ???
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elipsesjeff
Old 05-29-2006, 03:36 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think I would cap it. You've got 9 outs to the flush if you're behind to the straight, 7 if he has another flush, plus 10 outs to fill up for your boat, if you're behind as well. I cap it here and slow down on the river if you don't improve and face aggression.


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pokerfanatic
Old 05-29-2006, 04:08 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I’d give her a cap no real reason not to... you have SOO MANY redraws if your behind anyways... NUT FD (figure 9 outs max 7 if he has the Flush)... 10 outs to boat or hit quads (assuming he doesn't have 9T of diamonds)...

that's at least 17 outs up to 19 outs... 17:1 on a call but 19:1 pot if you raise... there is no way the guy folds his hand IMO...

When you hit the river even though you cap the turn I think you get 2bb+ in there... so really your raise has an expected outcome of 3bb+ when you hit... and only like -2bb when you miss so in reality it gains 1bb on avg extra in the long term...
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chardrian
Old 05-29-2006, 04:49 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I didn't notice the 74/13 increased aggression until after I looked at the hand.

I was gonna advise calling the 3 bet and calling a river that doesn't fill you up - but with those stats and your read I like capping the turn.
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koolmoe
Old 05-29-2006, 05:59 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Yeah, OK. I capped the turn and called the river unimproved, losing to 5d4d.
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