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Exercise in putting people on ranges
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10-09-2008, 12:25 PM
Post subject: Exercise in putting people on ranges
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#1 (permalink)
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Instead of putting villains on specific hands, I'll start putting them on hand ranges instead. What I used to do is say "He has hand x... or some other hands" instead I'll look at ranges. I have no reads and I'm playing without HUD stats as an exercise.
Full Tilt Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10 , A
3 folds, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls
At this point I put him on pockets, strong aces and strong kings. No reason not to defend.
Flop: (4.4 SB) 8 , 9 , 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls
I think he has overcards a lot more than pairs here, because betting and THEN slowplaying a set wouldn't make sense. An overpair probably 3bets us here. He has a gutshot a lot here as well, so I definitely want to raise him to charge him to draw. With overcards he's certainly priced in, but that doesn't mean he should get to draw for free.
Turn: (4.2 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls
Umm, terrible card. Hits him almost always. He either has a pair or a straight now and the best we can hope for is AK. I even doubt if we should be betting here since about every overcard hand contains a queen or a jack except for AK exactly. That's not even talking about the possibility of him having a stronger hand.
River: (6.2 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero?
River bricks, his range is still the same.
Is it time to check/call and let him bluff his AK? He can have: QJs+, KJo+, ATo+, 88+ and that's almost enough for me to want to fold. Is my range not wide enough? Could he be raising A9s-A8s from the MP?
Now, if we bet, is he ever folding better? Probably not, if he has a queen, AA/KK he's definitely calling me down even on a 4straight board. So betting is probably is worse than check/calling unless he has hands that are worse in his range. Without A9s and A8s:
Board: 8s 9d Tc Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.900% 12.47% 04.43% 428 152.00 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 83.100% 78.67% 04.43% 2700 152.00 { 88+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
With them:
Board: 8s 9d Tc Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.900% 16.77% 05.13% 679 207.50 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 78.100% 72.97% 05.13% 2954 207.50 { 88+, A8s+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
We could probably call down but that's about it. B/f seems bad even if he has weaker hands in his range.
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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c/fold imo
analysis is good, but without reads i wouldnt think a bet from him on the river comes from a worse hand.
With a read of him taking shots at scary boards, or being very aggro, i might c/call
range analysis is good though
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"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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i need to know if villain has been passive or aggressive up to this point.
if he is aggressive, i let him bluff and c/c. if he is passive, i b/f.
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Rubeskies
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Poker Enlightenment
Posts: 33
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I think your preflop range for your opponent is WAY too tight here. You have no read so you have to broaden up your range. He is the first one into the pot at low stakes limit hold em. He could have many more hands than you'd putting him on. This is a big mistake that people make when they start putting people on hand ranges. They make them too narrow. You can certainly "discount" some of the worse hands like J8 but they are still in the range.
I'd say his range is any pair, any A, KQ-K8, QJ-Q8, JT-J9, T9, and suited connectors.
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yeah I try to put villains on wider ranges now, although it just requires more practice
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