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pokernewb
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09-30-2005, 09:38 AM
Post subject: EV preflop
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 137
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I don't understand how the flop and turn bets are figured into EV situations, especially preflop.
Say you raise a hand that is +EV preflop. This EV is calculated by its win% at showdown right? Well what if you raise it preflop and flop nothing or something with only a few outs and don't have the pot odds to continue. Or maybe someone raises on the flop cutting your odds even more. Doesnt that make it incorrect to go by EV at showdown if you quite often wont even have the odds to go past the flop?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Something is +EV preflop because it is EXPECTED to win a certain percentage of the time over the long term.
Heres the simplistic explanation:
Look at pocket aces, clearly raising pocket aces is +EV because the times that they'll win FAR outnumber the times that they'll lose. What about 72o? Clearly raising 72o is -EV because theyll lose far more often than they'll win.
Of course if you have AQs, raise preflop and the flop is KK7 rainbow, you probably should not continue, even though raising AQs is +EV. The point of EV is LONG TERM. Over 100,000,000,000,000 hands, AQs is expected to be a winner.
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A'aag
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Straight
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Loyal son of Rochester
Posts: 172
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You can totally separate each street, based on the new information available to you. If you have AQs preflop, you can be sure you will like more flops than your opponents who are probably holding weaker hands, so you raise. You just made a +EV decision. If the flop comes KK7 (I'm using euphoricism's example) and you have a bunch of opponents, putting more money in the pot is probably -EV, so you fold/check, which is 0Ev. If you only have one or two opponents, betting might be +EV because they may fold (depending on who they are). Neither case changes the fact that raising PF was +EV. On each new betting round you must evaluate the situation separately, regardless of what your expectation was on the previous round.
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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As a general rule, for strong hands preflop equity based on showdown numbers underestimates the strength of the hand while preflop equity for weak hands overestimates the strength of the hand.
Consider that strong hands like AK will often have reason to continue (especially if they were raised preflop) but weak hands like 75 will usually have to connect with the board to continue.
Once the flop comes, preflop equity goes out the window. Don't get married to a hand because it was a favorite on a previous street. By the same token, don't fold every AK just becaue you didn't flop TPTK.
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Poker is freedom
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pokernewb
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 137
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Thanks for the info
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