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euphoricism
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08-03-2006, 04:34 PM
Post subject: Eupho's 1/2 Stat Post
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
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As requested..
Um, this sample is probably not very representative. As you can see by my "big hands", ive been running very poorly. I also began by playing around 23/20 on the last day of July, but by yesterday I was playing 18/13. Yesterday was also the worst card run of my career. The day before that wasn't too hot either ;p
Check out the rake.
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Ltrain
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
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General comments:
For shorthanded IMO, you are playing too tight, not defending your blinds enough and not stealing enough. Just in general terms, VPIP, even as TAG, should be at least 23%. Your SB/BB fold to steal should be around 75%/55% and steal % at least 30% or higher. If your stats came up in my PAHUD I would put you on my left and steal with any two. If you 3 bet me, I would know the narrow range of hands you hold because of your stats. It's correct play on the marginal hands, over and over, that will put you on the postive side.
I don't see your AF but my guess is you are above 3 with your stats, meaning you bet/raise your good hands or fold. This is too exploitable and predictable. Work on your post-flop reads, watch your overcalling. For table selection, my rule of thumb for a perfect table is two guys on my right with approx 17 BB or less in front of them (best sign of a fish busting out unless you can target buddies or fish you have played with before) and two guys on my left with stats similar to yours.
Also, you are right about the rake, if the games suck, it may be a time to try something else like a SNG or small NL until the game gets more juicy, it will also refresh you to try something else for a break.
I made a lot of assumptions here and others will likely disagree with them, but I hope some of this will help you.
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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elipsesjeff
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Pretty much what I have already told him.
He could always play the Stars game.
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Ltrain
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Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Pretty much what I have already told him.
He could always play the Stars game.
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Yeah, unfortunately I am leaning that way as well for SH LHE. I refuse to play the Monster tables and the tables were so bad last night I was playing NL instead (which may be the new "fish" haven by the way for lower stakes since very few players had a clue post flop).
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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As I said in my first post, my first several thousand hands I was playing 23/17ish, and dropped 100+ bets.
What about the effects of the rake? The rake here at 1/2 is obscene
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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Could we also be negating the effects of our opposition? I mean, 60/20s are *normal* in this game. Isn't this a reason to be tighter than normal as well?
I know of several people who are running 18/13 and winning 2bb/100 (Harry is one of them) at this game.
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Ltrain
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
As I said in my first post, my first several thousand hands I was playing 23/17ish, and dropped 100+ bets.
What about the effects of the rake? The rake here at 1/2 is obscene
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How were you playing post-flop? Just running bad? We all know 100 bets isn't much, especially in shorthanded.
Yes, rake is a major consideration. With an average rake of 3BB/100, are you at least 4BB/100 better than the luckboxes around you?
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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Ltrain
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Could we also be negating the effects of our opposition? I mean, 60/20s are *normal* in this game. Isn't this a reason to be tighter than normal as well?
I know of several people who are running 18/13 and winning 2bb/100 (Harry is one of them) at this game.
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I try to avoid 60/20's on my tables or put them on my right to simply isolate and play the odds when they bet into me on every street and I mostly call them down.
Over what sample size? Tight play will lose you just as much in the long run SH as overly loose play; just in reverse (blinded away rather than betting it away). You can win with any stat; post flop in SH is more important anyway.
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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I've been playing the "running bad" card so much in the last month that it almost feels like I'm lying to myself. But I really don't think I am. I mean, I played 112 hands today before I called it quits. First hand of the day ran 99 into A6 on an A9x flop, turn 6, river A. I'm a 98% favorite on the river there lol. About four hands later, I have 88 on a QQQ flop, three handed, both opponents call down UI with AK and split my money when the A hits on the river. Some days youre the bug, some days youre the windshield, I guess. And you can be a bug for a long time.
So yes, I'm running obscenely bad, but I've been running obscenely bad for an obscenely LONG time. So at some point, you have to wonder, am I causing it? Am I making it worse?
I know my blind play isn't perfect. I can see the stats and say, "yup, not perfect". But I can't find why. My SB has been giving me trouble for a long time. I mean, look up there, -.13 in the SB sucks ass. But am I running bad there, or am I spewing? And I haven't been able to find that answer.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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The best thing I can think of is "more videos for FTR!" Maybe I'll do another one tonight and go the 23/17 route, and we'll see what happens. I have no doubt I run bad. But I also have no doubt I have some small leak that i'm repeating over and over and over. And its probably very small, and very simple, and thats why its avoiding my detection.
LHE is a game of perfection. Anything short of that and you're in an instant uphill battle.
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Ltrain
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Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
I've been playing the "running bad" card so much in the last month that it almost feels like I'm lying to myself. But I really don't think I am. I mean, I played 112 hands today before I called it quits. First hand of the day ran 99 into A6 on an A9x flop, turn 6, river A. I'm a 98% favorite on the river there lol. About four hands later, I have 88 on a QQQ flop, three handed, both opponents call down UI with AK and split my money when the A hits on the river. Some days youre the bug, some days youre the windshield, I guess. And you can be a bug for a long time.
So yes, I'm running obscenely bad, but I've been running obscenely bad for an obscenely LONG time. So at some point, you have to wonder, am I causing it? Am I making it worse?
I know my blind play isn't perfect. I can see the stats and say, "yup, not perfect". But I can't find why. My SB has been giving me trouble for a long time. I mean, look up there, -.13 in the SB sucks ass. But am I running bad there, or am I spewing? And I haven't been able to find that answer.
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For the bad beats, nothing you can do, card gods kicked you in the nuts. But for blind play, let's look at some specific hands. In the BB, how often do you call a raise from the Button or CO with J,10o? Q,8o? K,7o? For me, unless I have a specific read the raiser is not a stealer, these are calling hands for me. You will say, "but I'm likely behind!", yeah maybe. But your equity will still justify a call.
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"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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Well, I can tell you that exactly. Let me run a filter.
K7o: I called once out of 7 times and folded on the flop. (BTN raised preflop, SB called, I called, c/f flop)
Q8o: I folded 3/3 times preflop
JTo: I folded 2/3 times preflop. The one time I played it was four handed.
Its difficult at 1/2. They don't "steal", like you would expect at a higher stake. Its like, ok, youve got a 50/20 on your right. He raises from the button, so youre in SB. You really shouldn't play many cards here, right?
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Its like, ok, youve got a 50/20 on your right. He raises from the button, so youre in SB. You really shouldn't play many cards here, right?
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???
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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What does threebetting accomplish? Hopefuly getting it heads up out of position against a super calling station with weak ass cards? I mean, yeah A8 is playable. But K8? JTo? We have no folding equity against these players, but we also can't just complete and take a flop because that gives the BB incentive to spike a flop getting 5:1.
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Xanadu
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Full House
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I play SB pretty loose with no raise, but with a raise, even a steal, I think it should be played pretty tightly. In general, I reraise in proportion to the stealer's range. If he's raising 40%, I 3-bet 20%. Otherwise, pretty much fold. I can't think of holdings I would want to just cold call from SB. I only do that as a slow play against a very aggressive player, and very rarely (once every 5-10k hands sounds about right).
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midas06
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
I play SB pretty loose with no raise, but with a raise, even a steal, I think it should be played pretty tightly. In general, I reraise in proportion to the stealer's range. If he's raising 40%, I 3-bet 20%. Otherwise, pretty much fold. I can't think of holdings I would want to just cold call from SB. I only do that as a slow play against a very aggressive player, and very rarely (once every 5-10k hands sounds about right).
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elipsesjeff
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Yeah, pretty much what Xanadu said. JTo is in my 3betting range from the BB against most steals. As, even your average blind stealer has hands like T5 or J8 or some other random cards. Plus, you gain initiative and therefore is much better than just flat calling.
This isn't Old new Euph, I've seen you 3bet 33 what happened to that guy?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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Someone told me to stop that.
I'm very comfortable playing a loose style. Hell, I LOVED being 30/20. It was FUN. Raise loose and thin on the cheap streets, and outplay them postflop. But it didnt *work*, and that's kinda important, right? I don't think it would have a CHANCE at 1/2.
You don't extract money from LAGs by playing LAG. You camp and let the math work itself out.
I'm just on a massive fucking downswing. Maybe I should move even further down. Maybe I should 6 table .25/.50 until this run of cards plays itself out. Of course, logically, I know that it would make absolutely no difference.
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elipsesjeff
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maybe 6 tabling is the problem, as you arent actually "playing" poker but are trying to apply a standard TAG approach and develop an autonomy, which obviously isnt working.
You went from too loose to too weak tight. And, right now, you should be willing to give just about anything a try. Your downswing is less a functino of cards and more a function of how you are playing them.
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